美股屡创新高，后市何去何从？华尔街多空分歧加剧

华尔街见闻06-03

摩根大通 Matejka认为，美股夏季涨幅或将受到限制；而此前的华尔街著名空头Wilson在转向看多美股后，依然坚持这一观点。尽管美国利率处于数十年高位，但美股却屡创新高，主要基准指数自去年10月以来不断反弹。纳斯达克综合指数5月站上17000点关口，20年来涨了9倍多，标普500在过去7个月中有6个月收涨，就连分析师们的预测也已难以跟上美股涨幅。与此同时，美股的飙升也引发了隐忧，就未来几个月...

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Wall Street's long-short divide intensifies","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a5c4edbed6bcab923d1172bd3ba491a","symbols_score_info":{"ADSK":1,"WDAY":1,"LULU":1,"DLTR":1,"03086":0.9,"NVDA":0.61},"content_text":"摩根大通 Matejka认为，美股夏季涨幅或将受到限制；而此前的华尔街著名空头Wilson在转向看多美股后，依然坚持这一观点。尽管美国利率处于数十年高位，但美股却屡创新高，主要基准指数自去年10月以来不断反弹。纳斯达克综合指数5月站上17000点关口，20年来涨了9倍多，标普500在过去7个月中有6个月收涨，就连分析师们的预测也已难以跟上美股涨幅。与此同时，美股的飙升也引发了隐忧，就未来几个月美国股市能否延续涨势，华尔街分析师们存在明显分歧，这反映出市场对于牛市能否持续的不确定性与日俱增。雅虎财经执行主编Brian Sozzi认为，科技股可能没有表面那么健康，热门科技股今夏或出现回调；摩根大通 Matejka认为，美股夏季涨幅或将受到限制；而此前的华尔街著名空头Wilson在此前转向看多美股后，依然坚持这一观点。雅虎财经编辑：纳斯达克暴涨让我担忧，夏天就要回调如今AI革命正在推动着一轮科技繁荣，推动了诸如英伟达、Anthropic和OpenAI等公司的估值飙升。上周的最新AI进展方面，惠普透露，该公司本季度每股收益指引优于预期，部分原因是将在6月中旬推出更高价位的AI PC。宠物用品电商Chewy虽未直接提及AI，但可以看到它开始推动更好的销售和利润率。不过，AI发展也有受挫的一方面，Salesforce公的糟糕业绩和指引则让人大跌眼镜。令人意外的是，尽管该公司推出了一系列新的AI产品，但其指引依然疲弱。对此，华尔街行业战略分析师、雅虎财经执行主编Brian Sozzi认为：我并不认为纳斯达克即将迎来夏季熊市，而是指科技行业现状可能没有表面那么健康，热门科技股今夏或将出现回调，投资者将重新评估其估值。Brian指出：尽管在英伟达和苹果等部分个股的推动下，纳指徘徊在新高附近，但越来越少的股票能够保持在50日和200日均线之上。这种两级分化也反映在具体个股表现上，一些消费品股如Dollar Tree(DLTR)和Lululemon(LULU)落后于大盘，一些人工智能相关公司如Workday(WDAY)和Autodesk(ADSK)的表现亦不太理想。正如，Wedbush分析师Dan Ives所说，这是一个所谓的“涨势集中”市场，投资者只是想押注于英伟达和苹果等纯AI玩家，其他科技股被抛之脑后。展望后市，Truist公司联合投资官Keith Lerner表示，10年期美债收益率自低点4.3%反弹至4.6%以上，以及6月份大选临近等因素的叠加，都可能继续压制非科技板块的表现。摩根士丹利和摩根大通持相反观点摩根士丹利和摩根大通持相反观点，一位看跌且看好小盘股，另一位看涨且看好大盘股。对于后续美股走势，摩根大通策略团队分析师Mislav Matejka在给客户的一份报告中表示：我们认为夏季市场涨幅将受到限制，原因是市场普遍预期未来会出现通货紧缩，但与此同时市场们又相信经济不会“硬着陆”，并看好盈利加速，这两种预期之间的不一致性将限制市场的上涨潜力。Matejka进一步表示，预计在下半年小盘股将出现反弹，但更多体现在欧洲市场而非美国。主要驱动力是欧洲预计将开始降息周期，当地经济活动可能会好于美国。对于美国而言，这些利好因素并不那么明确。与此相反，摩根士丹利分析师Michael Wilson则认为：他的看涨论点依然有效，只要债市没有发出任何紧张信号，不断上升的政府债务将继续刺激支出，进而推高包括股票在内的资产价格。值得一提的是，Wilson是华尔街最著名大空头之一，此前一直坚定看空美股，而5月却180度大转弯，将标普500指数目标位上调20%，从4500点调整至5400点，对该指数的预测从华尔街最低之列，一跃升到预计将创下纪录新高。Wilson表示：上周五标普500指数在守住50日均线后出现的小幅反弹是一个利好信号。考虑到反弹，短期内仍需以看涨论点为准，但如果6月份数据持续喜忧参半，情绪也可能再次扭转。此外，Wilson建议投资者不要追逐基本面较差的低质量股票。Wilson对科技股资金大规模流向消费股和小盘股持怀疑态度，其认为从未来几个月的风险回报率看，大型公司更具吸引力。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2440471495"}