中金研报指出今年年初以来资产风口切换频繁背后隐藏的主线恰是金融条件松紧驱动的经济基本面与政策预期随着5月以来美国金融条件的再度转松我们提示后续经济数据有再度走强的可能性如果走强过多甚至可能影响三季度的降息窗口类似年初的“翻版”从而限制在这个位置上市场与资产风险偏好抬升的空间与持续性。换言之越不预期降息才越可能促成降息；越预期降息反而只会使得降息被推后。因此即便在当前环境下继续参与降息交易也要注意反弹的持续性和金融条件转松的反身性。对于美联储而言可能会吸取去年底过快转向导致年初通胀走高的教训维持当前偏...

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中金研报指出今年年初以来资产风口切换频繁背后隐藏的主线恰是金融条件松紧驱动的经济基本面与政策预期随着5月以来美国金融条件的再度转松我们提示后续经济数据有再度走强的可能性如果走强过多甚至可能影响三季度的降息窗口类似年初的“翻版”从而限制在这个位置上市场与资产风险偏好抬升的空间与持续性。换言之越不预期降息才越可能促成降息；越预期降息反而只会使得降息被推后。因此即便在当前环境下继续参与降息交易也要注意...

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