股市多头面临考验，消费者开始显露压力迹象

金十数据05-06

随着对美联储降息的期待减弱，消费者的压力开始显露，这可能给股市带来挑战。随着围绕美联储何时将利率从23年高位下调的疑问越来越多，消费者压力的迹象正在显现，如果持续下去，可能会给股市带来麻烦。2024年初，投资者们怀着期望，预计美联储将从三月开始进行约六次每季度25个基点的降息。然而，通胀数据的持续走高、劳动力市场的紧缩以及其他数据使投资者大幅降低了这一预期，目前投资者预计从秋季开始只会有两到三次...

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Shack(SHAK.N)、温蒂汉堡(WEN.O)、星巴克(SBUX.O)和Yum！Brands(YUM.N)等公司上周公布的第一季度销售增长乏力。FrostInvestmentAdvisors公司首席投资官MaceMcCain说，与此同时，最近的数据显示，消费者的收入和支出仍在增长，但他们的支出超过了收入，这表明他们的压力更大了。McCain说：“我们要关注的是失业率何时上升。因为如果失业率开始上升，工作的不稳定性开始上升，那么这通常会导致消费者减少消费。我们将关注就业数据，看这种压力何时会真正转化为消费者减少消费，从而导致经济放缓。”上周五公布的数据显示，4月份美国新增就业岗位增长低于预期。上个月新增就业岗位仅为17.5万个，创下6个月来的新低。经济学家们预测就业岗位将增加24万个。与此同时，失业率从3.8%上升至3.9%，这是连续第27个月低于4%。然而，这一数据并没有敲响警钟。相反，股市反弹，因为投资者预计经济将出现“金发姑娘”的情况，即经济运行既不会太热也不会太冷，这将受到美联储决策者的欢迎。安永首席经济学家GregoryDaco在接受电话采访时说，这些数据“令人鼓舞”。“广泛的就业报告表明，劳动力市场状况正在恢复平衡。因此，你看到的是劳动力需求温和，就业率处于历史低位，工资增长正在降温。这是理想的组合。McCain补充说，就业报告增加了显示劳动力适度疲软和增长放缓的证据，这可能允许美联储继续降息。部分企业受到的冲击更大Moneyfarm首席投资官RichardFlax表示，消费者的压力已经对一些公司造成了影响，但尚未对更广泛的股市造成影响。Flax在一次电话会议上说，利率上升对不同人群的影响不同，低收入人群受到的冲击尤其严重。“在美国，低收入消费者在总消费中所占的比例相对较小，但仍然是一个相关群体。因此，他们的压力会对部分收益产生影响，但不是全部。McCain对此表示赞同。“我们看到的是一个真正分裂的经济。上半年的经济比下半年好得多。”McCain还表示，未能将抵押贷款利率锁定在3%至4%之间的房主所承受的压力最大。他指出，另一方面，高收入者和财富最多的人正在以健康的速度消费，其动力来自股市的积极回报和仍然居高不下的房价。Flax说：“美联储面临的风险是低收入家庭的困境日益加剧，而通胀率却保持相对较高水平。这不是一个传统的滞胀指标，但也许是一个不平等指标。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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