是“倒车接人”，还是历史大顶？英伟达陷入巨大争议

Wind04-25

来源：wind近日，美国科技股七只金花相继暴涨暴跌，特斯拉、Meta先后出现剧烈波动，前期已经有了较大跌幅的英伟达，目前也进入一个关键时期：是止跌回升，还是继续下跌。争议愈发激烈英伟达自近期峰值以来已经有了22.38%的最大回撤，该公司预计将于月22日披露最新财报。随着科技股陷入动荡，市场关于AI泡沫的争论又开始多起来。有一些分析师认为，或许只是市场解读错方向了，英伟达的需求依旧强劲，AI需求也不...

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Nvidia mired in huge controversy","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":1},"content_text":"来源：wind近日，美国科技股七只金花相继暴涨暴跌，特斯拉、Meta先后出现剧烈波动，前期已经有了较大跌幅的英伟达，目前也进入一个关键时期：是止跌回升，还是继续下跌。争议愈发激烈英伟达自近期峰值以来已经有了22.38%的最大回撤，该公司预计将于月22日披露最新财报。随着科技股陷入动荡，市场关于AI泡沫的争论又开始多起来。有一些分析师认为，或许只是市场解读错方向了，英伟达的需求依旧强劲，AI需求也不可能在一夜之间清零。另一种观点认为，经历了过去两年的资本开支高峰之后，如果下游企业依然无法找到可持续的收入来源，可以预见到部分中小型企业将退出AI模型竞赛；因此，英伟达的盈利已经是高峰。看好什么看好英伟达未来的投资者，重点考察的要点是：英伟达在AI领域的地位，以及未来AI仍有巨大的增长空间。如国金证券认为：AI模型训练亦或是AI平台搭建已演变为从软件、硬件到通信一体化的系统性工程，英伟达始终维持相较竞争对手全方面的领先优势。在软件端，CUDA支持公司全系列GPU，在软件库覆盖率以及AI框架支持度都相对领先。硬件端，公司训练芯片在算力以及其他指标上相对领先竞争对手。通信端，公司自研卡间互联用NVLink系统以及集群网络用IB网络架构，保证训练和推理效率最大化。在需求领域，海外云厂商CAPEX在2024年有望重回上行周期，并且在结构上向AI及相应基础设施作倾斜，有望持续拉动AI芯片需求。根据中际旭创23年报转引Factset一致预期，2024年海外云巨头的（微软、亚马逊、苹果、Meta、谷歌）资本开支将同比增长27.2%至1938.3亿美元。担心什么看空英伟达的投资者，无非是从涨幅、估值；以及后续增长空间两个维度发表见解，从而得出英伟达会继续下跌的结论。如有机构指出：根据2024财年调整每股收益12.96美元（同比增长288%）和1年市盈率平均估值38.15倍，显然，与公允价值估计相比，英伟达的交易价格仍显着溢价+54%。尽管最近有所调整，但公允价值仍为494.40美元。其言下之意，英伟达仍然需要回调38%以上。从市场占有份额上来解析，是另一种看空的理由：2023年12月，英伟达已经占据了生成式AI芯片市场92%的份额；随着英特尔、AMD等公司的AI芯片不断成熟，市场倾向认为，英伟达的市场占有率会持续走低。编辑/lambor","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2430523803"}