AI PC算力大战揭幕，2025迎来大幅增长

半导体产业纵横04-16

今年PC市场将持续复苏。英特尔上周推出新一代人工智能（AI）芯片Gaudi 3，掀起AI PC芯片算力大战新话题。PC品牌与代工厂普遍预期，今年AI PC渗透率仅低个位数（约1%至3%），但随着新芯片推出、杀手级应用浮现，2025年AI PC有望大量成长。英特尔新款AI加速器Gaudi 3采用台积电5纳米制程生产，即使与AI芯片大厂英伟达的产品相比也毫不逊色。英特尔表示，Gaudi 3的参数模型...

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8050系列）芯片，算力有机会达45至50 TOPS。英特尔规划2024年底推出的Lunar Lake芯片，NPU算力将达45 TOPS。从品牌厂角度来看，宏碁认为，大部分AI PC芯片将在今年下半年推出，但搭载新款NPU的笔记本电脑要等到2024年底或2025年初，预期2025年杀手级应用推出后，将带动软件与硬件效能同步，较有机会放大AI PC出货量。华硕指出，今年下半年各厂商推出的AI PC较符合市场期待，2024年AI PC渗透率约低个位数，2025年将达中个位数（约4%至6%）。短期AI PC在消费市场的渗透率高于商用市场，长期则以商用渗透率较高。惠普（HP）认为，AI PC渗透率提高，有助于带动PC平均价格成长5%至10%。代工厂广达预期今年PC出货量将持平，AI PC带动硬件规格与售价提高，在市况低迷下，须2025年消费市场才会放量，商务机种则是今年下半年就有机会。根据研究机构IDC最新统计，2024年第1季全球PC出货量达5980万台、年增1.5%，重返正成长，且直逼2019年第1季的6050万台，回到疫情前水准，主要因为去年第1季基期较低。IDC研究经理Jitesh Ubrani表示，虽然中国市场通胀压力仍在，但随着新款的AI PC将于今年稍后开始放量出货，加上企业换机周期启动，看好今年PC市场将持续复苏。除了出货量成长，新的AI PC价格较高，有望为PC及相关零组件供应商带来更多机会。中国AI PC产业生态正在形成AI PC作为“最懂用户”的专属助理，具备三大综合能力，即个性创作、秘书服务以及设备管家。在开放的模型和应用生态下，AI PC在工作、学习和生活娱乐等多个场景都能够展现出独特的优势。《AI PC产业（中国）白皮书》对AI PC做了新定义，即：AI PC在硬件上集成了混合AI算力单元，且能够本地运行“个人大模型”、创建个性化的本地知识库，实现个人化的自然交互。区别于现有的通用PC，AI PC将提供包括通用场景下的个性化服务，即时、可靠的服务响应，更低的大模型使用成本，可信、安全的个人数据和隐私保障等。“现在，以大模型为主的生成式AI技术取得重大突破并快速发展，混合人工智能对承载本地大模型的终端的交互能力、智能算力、应用场景、安全保护等方面都提出更高要求。在这样的发展趋势下，PC将再一次成为AI普惠的首选终端。”联想集团副总裁、中国区战略及业务拓展副总裁阿木认为，PC将带来划时代全新AI体验，使AI真正成为每个人的专属助理。《白皮书》指出，随着AI技术的不断进步，越来越多的企业加入AI PC的开放生态，传统PC产业格局将发生颠覆性变化。终端厂商将进阶为生态组织者。新的AI PC时代，终端设备、个人大模型与个人智能体成为一个不可分割的组合，共同带来智能体验。AI PC需要对“设备+个人大模型+个人智能体”进行整合创新。终端厂商则是整合创新的交付者，将成为用户与产业沟通的核心枢纽，从而负责推动算力、模型和应用生态的变革与统合。AI技术、应用、算力厂商们已经敏锐地察觉到AI PC时代即将到来，并积极布局。英特尔公司中国区技术总经理高宇表示，英特尔已经为把AI引入PC做足了准备，将联合联想持续优化混合多元算力，驱动AI PC落地。此次论坛上，“联想AI PC先锋行动”发布，正式招募AI生态开发者与AI内容创作者。“AI PC产业的成熟需要一个过程，需要整机厂商、模型、应用、算力等行业参与者与用户一起携手打造中国AI新生态，期待AI PC产业创新论坛能够像大模型一样，也涌现出AI 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