国泰君安保险24Q1业绩前瞻：利润小幅负增 NBV维持景气 COR略有承压

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智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安发布研报指出，寿险行业客户保险储蓄需求仍然旺盛，“报行合一”等监管举措引导压降负债成本预计利好价值率提升，新单及价值率改善将共同推动NBV增长；财险行业头部险企主动优化业务结构改善承保质量，预计承保盈利将保持稳健。投资端看，预计当前长端利率进一步下降空间有限，权益市场呈现企稳回暖态势，推动资产端边际改善，维持行业“增持”。个股方面，得益于投资端改善以及监管引导行业压降...

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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1101027.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安发布研报指出，寿险行业客户保险储蓄需求仍然旺盛，“报行合一”等监管举措引导压降负债成本预计利好价值率提升，新单及价值率改善将共同推动NBV增长；财险行业头部险企主动优化业务结构改善承保质量，预计承保盈利将保持稳健。投资端看，预计当前长端利率进一步下降空间有限，权益市场呈现企稳回暖态势，推动资产端边际改善，维持行业“增持”。个股方面，得益于投资端改善以及监管引导行业压降...</p>\n\n<a 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pressure","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"82318":0.6,"601318":0.6,"COR":1,"02611":1,"02318":0.9,"01336":0.9,"02628":0.9,"02328":0.9,"02601":0.9,"03145":0.6,"L":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，国泰君安发布研报指出，寿险行业客户保险储蓄需求仍然旺盛，“报行合一”等监管举措引导压降负债成本预计利好价值率提升，新单及价值率改善将共同推动NBV增长；财险行业头部险企主动优化业务结构改善承保质量，预计承保盈利将保持稳健。投资端看，预计当前长端利率进一步下降空间有限，权益市场呈现企稳回暖态势，推动资产端边际改善，维持行业“增持”。个股方面，得益于投资端改善以及监管引导行业压降负债端成本的预期下“利差损”风险将有所减小，建议增持中国人寿(02628)、新华保险(01336)、中国太保(02601)、中国平安(02318)、中国财险(02328)。国泰君安主要观点如下：高基数下投资表现略有压力，预计24Q1利润负增：国泰君安指出，24Q1权益市场经历1月回调后2-3月有所回暖，但涨幅仍低于23Q1水平，预计保险公司计入FVTPL的股基投资仍然有一定压力，部分公司得益于把握高股息资产的主题行情投资表现预计好于预期；另一方面，24年一季度十年期国债收益率下滑26.29bp至2.29%，预计计入FVTPL的债券资产获得较好收益，部分对冲权益市场收益减少的影响。高基数下投资端预计有小幅压力，预计24Q1上市险企归母净利润小幅承压，分别为：中国太保(-5.8%)>中国财险(-10.0%)>中国平安(-10.1%)>新华保险(-13.2%)>中国人保(-14.6%)>中国人寿(-16.6%)。个险银保双轮驱动，预计24Q1NBV较快增长：2024年一季度，个险和银保渠道供需共振预计推动上市险企NBV实现较快增长。1)个险方面，预计个险队伍小幅下滑，而客户旺盛的储蓄需求叠加渠道高质量转型下人均产能持续提升预计推动新单较快增长，同时部分险企增加长缴别产品销售，预计推动个险价值率改善；2)银保方面，“报行合一”下预计银保渠道新单短期承压，而费用率显著改善有利于推动价值率显著提升。预测24年一季度上市险企NBV将实现较快增长，分别为：中国太保(31.1%)>新华保险(29.1%)>中国人寿(21.2%)>中国平安(17.3%)。财险保费增长承压，预计COR小幅抬升：1)预计2024年一季度财险保费增长承压，主要为头部险企严格执行“报行合一”以及汽车销量下滑影响。2)汽车出行恢复以及低温冻雨等灾害影响下预计赔付率有所抬升，预计24Q1财险COR同比小幅抬升，分别为：人保财险(96.3%，0.6pt)、太保财险(98.6%，0.2pt)、平安财险(99.0%，0.3pt)。风险提示：监管政策不确定性；长端利率下行；权益市场波动。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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