方正证券：啤酒高端化空间仍充足低估值下迎价值布局机会

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智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研究报告称，高端化空间仍充足、确定性强，当前估值处于历史低位，迎来价值布局机会。该行认为，当下龙头估值回落至近五年低位，具备价值布局机会，建议关注具备“α大单品喜力+强渠道掌控力”的华润啤酒(00291);“基地市场把控力强，非基地市场提速明显”的青岛啤酒(600600.SH);“改革进程加速，盈利持续兑现的”燕京啤酒(000729.SZ);“持续渠道改革，品牌矩阵...

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Templeton Asian Growth A Acc SGD"},"translate_title":"Founder Securities: There is still sufficient space for high-end beer, and low valuations welcome opportunities for value layout","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"80291":0.6,"01876":0.9,"00291":0.9,"CRHKY":0.6},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，方正证券发布研究报告称，高端化空间仍充足、确定性强，当前估值处于历史低位，迎来价值布局机会。该行认为，当下龙头估值回落至近五年低位，具备价值布局机会，建议关注具备“α大单品喜力+强渠道掌控力”的华润啤酒(00291);“基地市场把控力强，非基地市场提速明显”的青岛啤酒(600600.SH);“改革进程加速，盈利持续兑现的”燕京啤酒(000729.SZ);“持续渠道改革，品牌矩阵特色突出”的重庆啤酒(600132.SH);“品牌+渠道”优势凸显的百威亚太(01876)。方正证券观点如下：市场对于啤酒高端化预期悲观，板块估值当前已降至历史低位。自2018年起，啤酒行业全面进入高端化新阶段，各酒企在降本增效三板斧：增效-高端化，降本-关闭低效工厂&裁员+激励优化的清晰路径下，毛利率、盈利能力持续提升。啤酒板块23年4月以来估值持续下探，截至2024年4月8日，啤酒板块相对2023年年初累计跌幅达28.7%。该行认为，主要系：外部经济环境压力下，市场对于啤酒消费升级的担忧提升(伴随23年极端天气、需求较弱等因素影响)。该行对美日啤酒市场进行了复盘，旨在解决两个问题：1)美日啤酒行业整体高端化发展历程;2)外部经济压力下美日啤酒行业表现该行发现：1)美日啤酒行业均经历吨价高速提升期，持续时间长。美日吨价快速提升阶段分别持续时间20/10年，对应区间CAGR分别为5.3%/6.8%。后续发展存在分化：日本市场：而后啤酒价格涨幅放缓，2000年后受通缩影响价格小幅回落，但渠道之间表现存在分化，外食啤酒价格仍有小幅上涨;美国市场韧性更强，进入成熟期后仍在第二轮结构升级下，吨价持续提升(1993-2023年CAGR达2.1%);2)外部经济压力下，美日啤酒高端化仍均展现出韧性。美国表现优于日本(百威08-12年吨价提升CAGR3.7%，幅度高于CPI)，该行认为，二者供给端存在较大差异，美国龙头高端化战略定力强，高速增长期，通过“加速创新+高举高打”打造高端品牌，实现集中度进一步提升，外部经济环境压力下，仍能通过“调整价格+推广高端新品”等方式，推动结构升级。反观日本，高端啤酒市场当前仍定位于利基市场，主要参与者为“三得利+札幌”，龙一&龙二“朝日+麒麟”推广力度不足。但在三得利推广下，高端啤酒占日本传统啤酒市场比重仍从2003年的3.5%提升至2017年的15.2%。风险提示：市场竞争加剧，原材料价格上涨、高端化不及预期等。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2426278284"}

方正证券：啤酒高端化空间仍充足 低估值下迎价值布局机会

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方正证券：啤酒高端化空间仍充足低估值下迎价值布局机会