茅台批价波动激发市场关注，专家预测2024-26年净利年均增长7%

和讯网04-10

近期，贵州茅台的批价波动引起了市场的广泛关注。尽管如此，公司基本面依然保持稳健，投资者应理性看待这一现象。伴随着股价的回调，配置价值有所提升。从年内角度来看，市场和产业对茅台批价波动的解读主要集中在三个方面：首先，投放进度有所加快；其次，茅台品藏馆和其他规格产品的增加，可能挤压了普通飞天的需求；最后，淡季商务需求仍然较弱。放眼3至5年的周期，茅台批价的变化基本反映了供给节奏的调整，这才是核心...

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爱赚钱的瓜子
04-10
爱赚钱的瓜子
人家茅台都是说了15的增长

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href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240410101019875d3c24&s=b><strong>和讯网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近期，贵州茅台的批价波动引起了市场的广泛关注。尽管如此，公司基本面依然保持稳健，投资者应理性看待这一现象。伴随着股价的回调，配置价值有所提升。从年内角度来看，市场和产业对茅台批价波动的解读主要集中在三个方面：首先，投放进度有所加快；其次，茅台品藏馆和其他规格产品的增加，可能挤压了普通飞天的需求；最后，淡季商务需求仍然较弱。放眼3至5年的周期，茅台批价的变化基本反映了供给节奏的调整，这才是核心...</p>\n\n<a 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2024-26","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9},"content_text":"近期，贵州茅台的批价波动引起了市场的广泛关注。尽管如此，公司基本面依然保持稳健，投资者应理性看待这一现象。伴随着股价的回调，配置价值有所提升。从年内角度来看，市场和产业对茅台批价波动的解读主要集中在三个方面：首先，投放进度有所加快；其次，茅台品藏馆和其他规格产品的增加，可能挤压了普通飞天的需求；最后，淡季商务需求仍然较弱。放眼3至5年的周期，茅台批价的变化基本反映了供给节奏的调整，这才是核心问题所在。从2020年以来飞天茅台批价的走势来看，可以发现一定的规律：批价通常在清明节后逐渐抬升，端午节达到高峰，中秋节后开始回落，直至次年春节前后。此外，批价涨幅逐年减少，显示出消费属性需求弹性的下降。从供给角度来看，茅台酒销量在过去三年里持续增长，年复合增长率达到7%。供给增速的波动与茅台批价走势呈现出较大的相关性。展望未来，茅台酒批价作为供需关系的同步指标，并不具备前瞻性。尽管需求恢复的节奏难以预测，但茅台有足够的手段调整量价关系。公司可以通过优化渠道和产品结构，降低对量增的依赖，从而有效缓解供给侧对价格的影响。在股价方面，茅台批价基本上反映了供需关系的变化。尽管近期批价波动表明需求侧的恢复尚需观察，但需求恢复预期的提升和经济刺激政策的出台可能会成为估值提升的催化剂。考虑到今年供给增速放缓，批价的波动不太可能影响到公司的财务报表，这将进一步提升茅台的配置价值。盈利预测方面，预计2024至26年归母净利润分别为885.43亿元、1014.56亿元和1153.68亿元，对应每股收益为70.49元、80.76元和91.84元。当前股价对应的市盈率分别为24倍、21倍和18倍。需要注意的风险因素包括：高端白酒需求疲软，渠道改革不达预期，以及飞天茅台批价下行。和讯自选股写手风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保证和承诺。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":293744532992048,"gmtCreate":1712720527689,"gmtModify":1712720529505,"author":{"id":"3469825833798402","authorId":"3469825833798402","name":"爱赚钱的瓜子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a25f9dd9f0e446d3efad0c87609406f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3469825833798402","authorIdStr":"3469825833798402"},"htmlText":"人家茅台都是说了15的增长","listText":"人家茅台都是说了15的增长","text":"人家茅台都是说了15的增长","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/293744532992048","repostId":2426012721,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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