“抢跑”美联储，市场又一次败了

华尔街见闻03-16

通胀顽固令市场被迫对齐美联储自身的降息预期，预计全年降幅下调至75个基点，6月降息的概率则从100%降至2/3。本周公布的数据显示，美国2月CPI同比增3.2%，超出市场预期，核心CPI环比增0.4%，为八个月最大升幅，高于预期的0.3%，且已经连续第二个月高于预期，强化了美联储在降息方面的谨慎态度。ING美洲区研究主管帕德里克·加维对媒体表示，通胀的顽固性迫使投资者不得不做出调整。通胀反弹让市场...

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精彩评论

饿虎
03-18
饿虎
一会儿鹰派，一会儿鸽派，能不能不做两面人呢？
中铁二局
03-17
中铁二局
美国也踩假水
yellowtimes
03-16
yellowtimes
美联储难得不行不行的了。
狮子做趋势交易
03-16
狮子做趋势交易
预期3.1，公布数据3.2，多一点少一点都是手一滑的事。这种千分位的差距，十有八九都是人为做出来的，都属于造假。
- MOORE:
  这边的人谈这边的经验

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3710582><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>通胀顽固令市场被迫对齐美联储自身的降息预期，预计全年降幅下调至75个基点，6月降息的概率则从100%降至2/3。本周公布的数据显示，美国2月CPI同比增3.2%，超出市场预期，核心CPI环比增0.4%，为八个月最大升幅，高于预期的0.3%，且已经连续第二个月高于预期，强化了美联储在降息方面的谨慎态度。ING美洲区研究主管帕德里克·加维对媒体表示，通胀的顽固性迫使投资者不得不做出调整。通胀反弹让市场...</p>\n\n<a 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被迫对齐美联储仍然顽固的通胀，导致市场对美联储今年加息步伐的预期发生重大调整。期货市场目前预计今年美联储只会降息3次。而数据公布前的降息预期为4次。更早前的1月，市场甚至乐观地相信美联储会降息6-7次。对降息节点的看法也不再统一。上月市场曾认定6月会议降息的概率为100%，但本周五已经降低至2/3。目前的市场预期，与美联储自身的估计一致（均为3次25个基点的小幅降息，利率由当前的5.25%-5.5%的下调至5%左右）。在关键的美国大选年，投资者正在适应通胀降幅低于预期的情况。对利率敏感的两年期美国国债收益率本周已累计上涨约23个基点，至4.73%。高歌猛进的美股已经有所回落。截至隔夜收盘，本周三大股指再次出现周线收阴。标普周内累跌0.13%，纳指跌0.7%，纳斯达克100跌1.17%，均连跌两周，2024年开年11周内第四周累跌。道指累跌0.02%，连跌三周。美联储面临两难选择下周，美联储将召开货币政策会议，讨论未来加息路径并更新全年经济和利率预测。市场预计，在3月20日公布决议时，美联储将暂时按兵不动，不作任何调整。美联储主席鲍威尔本月曾表示，在\"更有信心认为通胀正在可持续下降至2%的目标\"之前，不会开始降息。上周公布的数据显示，尽管2月失业率从前月的3.7%小幅上升至3.9%，但仍处于历史低位。同时，当月非农新增就业人数也超过预期，再次凸显了劳动力市场的持续紧缺状态。在就业和通胀数据的双重冲击下，美联储正面临进退维谷的困境。一方面，通胀高企加大了继续加息的压力；但另一方面，过度激进的货币政策也可能导致经济硬着陆。因此，权衡通胀和经济增长之间的微妙平衡，或将成为美联储未来政策的重中之重。荷宝资产管理公司首席投资官马克·唐丁认为：看起来我们今年只能期待一个短暂且相对温和的降息周期。他分析，为了彻底击垮通胀，美联储可能仍需维持相对较高的利率水平。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":285538907259192,"gmtCreate":1710717356374,"gmtModify":1710717358533,"author":{"id":"3547720669746519","authorId":"3547720669746519","name":"饿虎","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/845e42dd95119c661b7e0a1fd1bb7135","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547720669746519","authorIdStr":"3547720669746519"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;一会儿鹰派，一会儿鸽派，能不能不做两面人呢？","listText":"&nbsp;一会儿鹰派，一会儿鸽派，能不能不做两面人呢？","text":"一会儿鹰派，一会儿鸽派，能不能不做两面人呢？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285538907259192","repostId":2419151333,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":285217629913368,"gmtCreate":1710638918732,"gmtModify":1710638920613,"author":{"id":"3564627125056965","authorId":"3564627125056965","name":"中铁二局","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3564627125056965","authorIdStr":"3564627125056965"},"htmlText":"美国也踩假水","listText":"美国也踩假水","text":"美国也踩假水","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/285217629913368","repostId":2419151333,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":284924753690792,"gmtCreate":1710567479747,"gmtModify":1710567516813,"author":{"id":"3493697741648925","authorId":"3493697741648925","name":"yellowtimes","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493697741648925","authorIdStr":"3493697741648925"},"htmlText":"美联储难得不行不行的了。","listText":"美联储难得不行不行的了。","text":"美联储难得不行不行的了。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284924753690792","repostId":2419151333,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":284902264946960,"gmtCreate":1710561924527,"gmtModify":1710561928309,"author":{"id":"3574123395625866","authorId":"3574123395625866","name":"狮子做趋势交易","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/af12a94316dc1d635182b0f091ca8f4a","vip":2,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3574123395625866","authorIdStr":"3574123395625866"},"htmlText":"预期3.1，公布数据3.2，多一点少一点都是手一滑的事。这种千分位的差距，十有八九都是人为做出来的，都属于造假。","listText":"预期3.1，公布数据3.2，多一点少一点都是手一滑的事。这种千分位的差距，十有八九都是人为做出来的，都属于造假。","text":"预期3.1，公布数据3.2，多一点少一点都是手一滑的事。这种千分位的差距，十有八九都是人为做出来的，都属于造假。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/284902264946960","repostId":2419151333,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":285020680753288,"gmtCreate":1710590881648,"gmtModify":1710590885573,"authorId":75559616907264,"author":{"id":75559616907264,"idStr":"75559616907264","authorId":75559616907264,"name":"MOORE","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/c20c93f389a475a0a37740b191cda852","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":284902264946960,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"这边的人谈这边的经验","text":"这边的人谈这边的经验","html":"这边的人谈这边的经验"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":2,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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