小米集团-W(01810.HK)：4Q23手机出货量同比持续成长关注1H24小米汽车量产节奏

中金公司02-05

预测4Q23 经调整净利润同比增长175%我们预计小米集团4Q23 经调整净利润将同比增长174.9%至40.17 亿元。关注要点四季度智能手机出货量同比显著恢复，料毛利率同比大幅提升。根据Canalys，4Q23 小米全球智能手机出货量同比增长23%至4,100 万台；市场份额为13%，继续保持全球第三。综合全年看，2023 年小米智能手机出货量同比下滑4%至1.46 亿台，出货量份额稳定在...

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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n小米集团-W(01810.HK)：4Q23手机出货量同比持续成长 关注1H24小米汽车量产节奏\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-02-05 09:11 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240205091152816c5daf&s=b><strong>中金公司</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>预测4Q23 经调整净利润同比增长175%我们预计小米集团4Q23 经调整净利润将同比增长174.9%至40.17 亿元。关注要点四季度智能手机出货量同比显著恢复，料毛利率同比大幅提升。根据Canalys，4Q23 小米全球智能手机出货量同比增长23%至4,100 万台；市场份额为13%，继续保持全球第三。综合全年看，2023 年小米智能手机出货量同比下滑4%至1.46 亿台，出货量份额稳定在...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240205091152816c5daf&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"LU2097828805.USD","symbol_name":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240205091152816c5daf&s=b","article_id":"2409175114","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":[],"rights":{"source":"tencent","url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20240205091152816c5daf&s=b","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}#news_title{font-weight:bold;#titleStyle#;}#news_description span{font-size:12px;#descriptionStyle#;}.footer-note{#statement#}","selectors":".mod-LoadTzbdNews, body","filters":".relate-stock, .hot-list, .recom-box, .wx-sou","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2409175114","pubTimestamp":1707095505,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"tencent","name":"腾讯"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"预测4Q23 经调整净利润同比增长175%我们预计小米集团4Q23 经调整净利润将同比增长174.9%至40.17 亿元。关注要点四季度智能手机出货量同比显著恢复，料毛利率同比大幅提升。根据Canalys，4Q23 小米全球智能手机出货量同比增长23%至4,100 万台；市场份额为13%，继续保持全球第三。综合出货量及ASP，我们预计4Q23 智能手机收入同比增长20.3%至441.33 亿元。小米14 销售表现亮眼，小米汽车技术发布会召开。风险全球宏观经济影响智能手机及IoT产品需求，智能汽车销量低于预期。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"qq.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"81810":"小米集团-WR","LU2097828805.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A-AZ\" (USD) ACC","XIACY":"小米集团ADR","BK1521":"挪威政府全球养老基金持仓","BK1575":"同股不同权","BK1506":"5G概念","BK1607":"新IT概念","LU2097828557.USD":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK1589":"北水核心资产","BK1193":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","LU2097828631.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC","LU2097828474.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"A\" (EUR) ACC A","01810":"小米集团-W","BK1523":"武汉本地概念股","BK1502":"双十一","LU2097828714.EUR":"AZ EQUITY CHINA \"BAZ\" (EUR) ACC"},"translate_title":"Xiaomi Group-W (01810. 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Pay attention to the mass production rhythm of 1H24 Xiaomi cars","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81810":0.6,"01810":1,"XIACY":0.6},"content_text":"预测4Q23 经调整净利润同比增长175%我们预计小米集团4Q23 经调整净利润将同比增长174.9%至40.17 亿元。关注要点四季度智能手机出货量同比显著恢复，料毛利率同比大幅提升。根据Canalys，4Q23 小米全球智能手机出货量同比增长23%至4,100 万台；市场份额为13%，继续保持全球第三。综合全年看，2023 年小米智能手机出货量同比下滑4%至1.46 亿台，出货量份额稳定在13%。我们认为，4Q23出货量同比增长一方面是由于小米14 及红米系列新品的亮眼表现；另一方面也受益于新兴市场在下半年的复苏。ASP方面，我们预计4Q23 手机ASP环比略有提升，主要系小米14 热销提振均价。综合出货量及ASP，我们预计4Q23 智能手机收入同比增长20.3%至441.33 亿元。毛利率方面，我们预计4Q23 手机毛利率同比提升7.9ppt至16.0%，主要系库存完成出清；环比略下降0.6ppt，主要考虑元器件价格略有上升及促销影响。IoT需求稳定，互联网业务收入及毛利率稳步提升。我们预计4Q23 公司IoT业务收入为205.24 亿元，同比略有下滑，主要系电视需求疲弱；IoT毛利率则同比/环比下降0.4ppt/4.0ppt至13.9%，主要系高毛利的大家电产品季节性影响及电视需求相对低迷。互联网业务方面，我们预计4Q23 互联网业务收入为75.09 亿元，同比提升4.7%，其中考虑广告主需求有所恢复，广告占比或有提升；毛利率预计为75.1%，同比/环比提升3.5ppt/0.6ppt。小米14 销售表现亮眼，小米汽车技术发布会召开。我们预计4Q23 公司核心业务期间费用（不含造车等创新业务投入）同比有所下降，降本增效继续发挥作用。展望2024 年，我们看好手机出货量重回增长；造车方面，公司于12 月底召开汽车技术发布会，看好智能汽车业务形成第二成长曲线。盈利预测与估值考虑4Q23 小米14 带动手机毛利率上行，上调2023 年经调整净利润7.2%至183.80 亿元；考虑智能汽车投入，下调2024 年经调整净利润6.5%至145.68 亿元；新引入2025 年经调整净利润预测125.48 亿元。当前股价对应2024/2025 年核心业务（不含造车）经调整净利润10.2/10.1 倍P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，我们将估值体系切换至2024 年同时考虑行业估值中枢下移，下调目标价16.8%至15.8 港元，对应2024/2025 年核心业务13.2/13.1 倍P/E，有29.5%的上行空间。风险全球宏观经济影响智能手机及IoT产品需求，智能汽车销量低于预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2409175114"}

小米集团-W(01810.HK)：4Q23手机出货量同比持续成长 关注1H24小米汽车量产节奏

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小米集团-W(01810.HK)：4Q23手机出货量同比持续成长关注1H24小米汽车量产节奏