成长股专家利伯特：买“长期增长”，而不是“周期性增长”

巴伦周刊01-31

“在更长时间里增长更快”是利伯特的投资座右铭。和百润资本(Baron Capital)的大多数投资组合经理一样，迈克尔·利伯特(Michael Lippert)的投资对象是具有可持续竞争优势的成长股，他寻找的是受将持续多年的长期趋势影响的公司，“在更长时间里增长更快”(faster for longer)是他的投资座右铭。利伯特曾是一名律师，2001年12月加入百润资本担任分析师，并于2006...

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growth)，“长期增长”是经济、行业和地缘政治周期性的起伏之外的更大的趋势或主题。\n我经常把这些趋势称为代际的、结构性的转变，它们都是非常宏大、不可否认、会持续很长时间的趋势。这些趋势涉及的投资主题很常见，我们并不是唯一关注它们的人。在这些主题中选股和在投资组合中增加这些主题的权重，是推动成功投资的因素。\n《巴伦周刊》：这类主题都有哪些？\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n云计算、软件即服务(SaaS)、人工智能、网络安全、自动驾驶、基因组学、遗传医学、数字媒体以及互联电视等，多年来这些主题一直都存在。\n人工智能对很多人来说可能很新鲜，生成式人工智能直到一年前ChatGPT出现后才为人所知，但我们多年来一直在投资人工智能，它曾经被称为大数据，过去一年最大的转折点是生成式人工智能。\n《巴伦周刊》：你在选择投资对象时主要看什么？\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n我们投资了不到50家公司，所以Baron Opportunity是一只“高度集中投资”(high-conviction)的基金。我看的是一家公司的增长方向，长期以来我一直认为世界上最好的公司——最好的投资——是那些能够长期快速增长的公司。\n一家公司最关键的特征是是否具有持久的竞争优势，以及是否拥有合适的管理团队。\n亚马逊、Alphabet旗下的谷歌、微软和苹果一直以来都属于在更长时间里增长更快的公司。\n亚马逊最早是一家网上书店，我们曾担心来自Barnes & Noble的竞争。亚马逊花了很多年的时间才成为一家无所不包的网上商店，后来不仅在产品种类和价格上实现了差异化，而且在物流或配送方面也实现了差异化，即在第二天或当天将产品送到你的家门口，一半的美国家庭都是亚马逊Prime会员。\n如今，亚马逊超过一半的价值来自Amazon Web Services (AWS)，AWS是世界领先的云计算供应商，也是信息技术领域最具影响力的供应商之一。\n我们喜欢能做不止一件事的公司，它们做的第一件事可能是某个产品或服务，然后做得非常出色，但它们还会去做第二件、第三件事，它们会持续扩张。\n《巴伦周刊》：2023年亚马逊上涨了80%以上，至150美元左右，对于错过这轮上涨的投资者来说，现在是一个好的切入点吗？\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n在未来三到四年亚马逊的股票可以带来稳定的回报。我们通过三种方法为亚马逊估值：根据GAAP计算的盈利；自由现金流减去偿还的本金；包括广告、国际零售业务和AWS在内的分类加总法。我们预计2024年底亚马逊股票的回报率在4%到6%之间，长期回报率更高，略低于15%。\n《巴伦周刊》：能举例介绍一家你投资的拥有多项业务、但知名度不太高的公司吗？\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n20多年来我一直持有CoStar Group的股票，这家公司为商业和住宅房地产行业提供信息、营销和相关服务。CoStar是我加入百润资本时被要求分析的第一批公司之一，那时该公司已经在我们的投资组合中，而且现在仍然是10大重仓股之一，年化回报率约为20%。\nCoStar是那些去做第二、第三、第四、第五件事的公司里的典型代表，该公司首先卖的在商业房地产方面的信息——大数据，然后进入了房地产其他领域，并扩展到营销领域。该公司现在还拥有apartments.com，并通过homes.com进入了住宅房地产市场，同时在和占据市场主导地位10至15年的Zillow竞争。CEO安迪·弗洛伦斯(Andy Florance)目前正在寻找下一个机会。\n《巴伦周刊》：去年CoStar的股价波动非常大，原因有哪些？\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n这只股票经常走出山车行情，但长期趋势是向上和向前。每次该公司CEO和管理团队宣布一项新的投资时，股票就会下跌，投资者对短期内该公司利润下降的可能性反应过度，但实际上它是在最大化长期利润。\n未来息税折旧及摊销前利润(Ebitda)将达到40%左右。CoStar业务的资本密集度较低，因此将创造出自由现金流，该公司拥有强大的资产负债表。\n到了某个时点，如果没有什么可以收购，CoStar将有大量现金流可以返还给股东，在这一点上苹果是最好的例子，该公司一直在回购股票。\n《巴伦周刊》：苹果是第一家市值达到3万亿美元的公司，你在2018年卖掉了苹果，现在也不再持有，你后悔过吗？\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n我后悔的仅仅是错过了苹果股票带来的回报。我认为苹果已经到了一个不再是一个领先创新者的阶段，因此也不再是一家领先的成长型公司，更多进行的是渐进式创新，而且增长率下降了。我错过的是苹果一直在回购大量股票。\n苹果不再是一家具有特别具有创新精神的公司，但拥有最重要的平台，该公司完全控制着这个平台，销售硬件和软件，这个生态系统正在增长，但增长速度变慢了，大多数消费者都在更换苹果设备，比如换一台新Mac或iPhone，但坦率地说，苹果错过了移动生态系统中大多数重要的创新，比如说现在音乐领域的主导者是Spotify。\n《巴伦周刊》：Netflix是另一只大涨的股票，但你没有投资这家公司，为什么？\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n在Netflix转向流媒体视频和原创节目后，我曾在很长一段时间里持有这只股票，获得了可观的回报。2022年4月我卖掉了Netflix，因为虽然我相信该公司的流媒体视频业务大获成功，但竞争格局发生了变化，所有人都进入了这一领域。\n苹果和亚马逊在流媒体领域投入了大量资金，而且不需要真的盈利。大多数人的电视上有多个APP，就像我们在iPhone或iPad上有多个APP一样，他们在挑选节目时不会说“我只看Netflix”。Netflix会成为流媒体视频领域的赢家，在这一领域该公司是首屈一指的投资对象，但增长速度远低于过去。\n《巴伦周刊》：但去年Netflix上涨了近70%。\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n去年Netflix之所以大涨，是因为该公司为美国用户提供了“付费分享”服务，但付费分享听起来像是一个一次性的改变，我看不到它的下一步计划是什么。\nNetflix的股票不便宜，股价是2024年预估企业价值与自由现金流之比的37倍，是根据非GAAP计算的盈利的31倍。该公司正在创造自由现金流，并将向股东返还资本。如果Baron Opportunity是一只投资于业务更具持久性的公司、而不是更专注于长期增长和高增长公司的基金，我会考虑持有Netflix和苹果这样的股票。我管理的Baron Technology基金投资了苹果的股票。\n《巴伦周刊》：英伟达是你的第二大重仓股，2023年上涨了240%，你还继续看涨吗？\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n绝对继续看涨，英伟达目前的股价是未来一年预期盈利的20倍左右，并不贵，该公司业务出现了爆炸式增长，而且所有人都在关注该公司业务新增长的可持续性，我们认为人工智能不会只是一个炒作周期。\n计算方式发生了根本性的变化，我们现在可以使用生成式人工智能来进一步使用数据。2018年以来我们一直持有英伟达的股票，该公司是我见过的最了不起的公司之一，如果你问我职业生涯中见过的最优秀的CEO是谁，我会把黄仁勋排在第一位。\n《巴伦周刊》：你看好的另一只股票是什么？\n迈克尔·利伯特：\n2012年Guidewire Software上市以来一直是我们的投资对象，该公司是财产和意外伤害保险行业领先的软件供应商，这是一个庞大但发展缓慢的行业，采用新技术的速度也较慢。\nGuidewire上市时做的是销售本地软件，将许多财险保险公司从旧软件中改造出来，上市后股票表现不错，但后来该公司意识到必须进军云领域，花的时间比预期要长。2019年，Guidewire从Salesforce那里挖来了迈克·罗森鲍姆(Mike Rosenbaum)担任CEO，如今该公司是一家云供应商。竞争激烈的市场环境是一个利好，因为其他一些云供应商已经被私募股权公司收购，你看不到同样的投资。我们认为未来三到五年Guidewire股票的回报率将达到20%左右。\n《巴伦周刊》：谢谢。\n文 | 劳伦·福斯特\n编辑 | 郭力群 \n版权声明：\n《巴伦周刊》(barronschina)原创文章，未经许可，不得转载。英文版见2024年1月4日报道“Amazon and Nvidia Stock Have a Lot More Growth Ahead, This Manager Says”。\n（本文内容仅供参考，不构成任何形式的投资和金融建议；市场有风险，投资须谨慎。）\n\n\n\n.data_color_scheme_dark{--weui-BTN-ACTIVE-MASK: rgba(255, 255, 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