程实：资本市场枢纽功能的四重内涵

首席经济学家论坛01-25

工银国际首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事程实工银国际宏观经济分析师周烨 “彼是莫得其偶，谓之道枢。枢始得其环中，以应无穷。”从概念出发，枢纽指的是事物发展的关键之处以及要素联系的中心环节。2023年10月底召开的中央金融工作会议强调“优化融资结构，更好发挥资本市场枢纽功能”，资本市场改革纵深推进对于新质生产力的形成和高质量发展的推进愈发具有与时俱进的战略意义。究其“枢纽”作用，资本市场...

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周烨\n“彼是莫得其偶，谓之道枢。枢始得其环中，以应无穷。”从概念出发，枢纽指的是事物发展的关键之处以及要素联系的中心环节。2023年10月底召开的中央金融工作会议强调“优化融资结构，更好发挥资本市场枢纽功能”，资本市场改革纵深推进对于新质生产力的形成和高质量发展的推进愈发具有与时俱进的战略意义。究其“枢纽”作用，资本市场...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240125A0957L00\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK4131","symbol_name":"航空货运与物流","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240125A0957L00","article_id":"2406357290","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://inews.gtimg.com/om_ls/O8XGbf5vUu41r3-7R8Zq5BGuX3J7GtmP162XOsr2POVIEAA_294195/0"],"rights":{"source":"tencent_tech","url":"https://new.qq.com/rain/a/20240125A0957L00","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.title{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.author, .pubtime{#sourceStyle#; display: inline-block;} .pubtime{margin-left: 3px;}strong{font-weight:500;#lv2TextColor#}","selectors":".main-wrapper","filters":".follow_top, .channel-entry, .collapseWrapper, .pic, .gap, 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connotations of the hub function of capital market","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"HUBG":1},"content_text":"工银国际首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 程实\n工银国际宏观经济分析师 周烨\n“彼是莫得其偶，谓之道枢。枢始得其环中，以应无穷。”从概念出发，枢纽指的是事物发展的关键之处以及要素联系的中心环节。2023年10月底召开的中央金融工作会议强调“优化融资结构，更好发挥资本市场枢纽功能”，资本市场改革纵深推进对于新质生产力的形成和高质量发展的推进愈发具有与时俱进的战略意义。究其“枢纽”作用，资本市场不仅是资金流动的中心环节，更是市场信息的交汇区域，并逐步构成推动产业升级、促进科技创新、改善民生福祉的关键之处，其在优化资源配置以及顺畅要素流动中的调节功能更显突出。针对如何更好发挥资本市场枢纽功能，理解其“牵一发而动全身”的内在机理至关重要：第一，资本市场通过交易传递信息，连接各个经济行为主体，是预期信心的风向标；第二，资本市场推动供给侧结构性改革与扩大内需战略的有机结合，促进消费和投资的良性循环，是扩大内需的物质基础；第三，资本市场引导资金向创新企业流动，为科创企业提供全周期融资，是科技金融的主战场；第四，资本市场连接境内企业与境外资金，助力人民币国际化，是对外开放的增幅器。身处百年未有之大变局，资本市场枢纽功能的“立”对于宏观破局至关重要，其在推进产业升级、科技创新和全球经济合作方面的作用发挥值得期待。\n预期信心的风向标。资本市场的核心价格机制实质上是各经济行为主体的预期与信心在资产价格维度的映射与动态调整。以股市为例，股票指数直观具象、高频实时，国民参与度高，话题辐射范围广，同时相比传统经济数据，更具有前瞻性和统筹性。一方面，资本市场对未来高度敏感，而传统宏观经济数据以统计数据为基础，着重于对过去的总结和复盘，不可避免的存在一定的滞后性。资本市场定价机制根植于投资者对企业的盈利预期，企业长期估值中枢本身是其未来现金流的折现。未来现金流体现了投资者对企业持续盈利能力和偿还能力的判断，折现率则是投资者对所承担风险的定价。有效市场假说之下，资产价格是基于市场信息的最佳价值估计，即为企业内生增长动力如管理模式以及技术革新所带来的边际效益外移与外生因素如整体经济情况以及市场交易成本的综合考量。然而，即使是在信息完备的市场中，投资者也并非完全理性。短期市场价格与长期估值水平的背离是投资者情绪的直接体现。除去信息效用的最大化与价值的最佳估计，社会舆论、思维定式、心理效应对资本市场内外部因素的影响不可小觑。同时，短期资产定价偏差的锚定效应也有可能成为投资者偏差情绪的反馈机制，从而进一步加深定价偏离程度。另一方面，资本市场走向是各方经济行为主体预期信心的综合表达。从企业角度出发，信号传递理论着重研究了企业通过资本市场以发布业绩指引、投资计划以及股息回购等方式，向市场传递其自身的信心和预期。对于高度依赖股权融资的企业而言，其融资结构对资本市场波动反应强烈，使得企业在短期融资效益的驱使下为迎合投资者的预期而改变自身的投资和发展方向。从政策传导角度出发，资本市场是经济和产业政策的重要传导渠道。中国资本市场仍在不断成长发展之中，产业政策可以弥补市场不足，在经济结构的调整和转型中的引导作用举足轻重。政策的发布和实施本身向市场传递了政府或央行对经济状况的评估和未来方向的预期，而市场则通过价格变动和资金流向提供对政策效果的即时反馈，从而达到各方预期与信心的交互与平衡。\n扩大内需的物质基础。资本市场的建设有助于推进供给侧结构性改革与扩大内需战略的有机结合，实现消费和投资的良性循环。首先，资本市场是储蓄转化为投资的有效平台，有助于拓宽居民的理财投资渠道，提高居民财产性收入。学术文献研究发现，家庭消费受到房产和股票所有权等财产增值的影响，房产财富效应在低收入以及金融发展水平较低的国家更为明显，而股票财富效应在金融市场制度更健全，市值更高的地区更为显著（Peltonen, Sousa & Vansteenkiste, 2012)。目前，中国个人投资者总数已超过2.2亿，随着制度的不断完善，资本市场有望成为居民财富保值甚至升值的蓄水池。其次，资本市场服务实体经济，为企业发展提供全链条、全周期融资服务。多层次资本市场的持续推进为企业在生命周期各阶段的不同融资需求提供了多元化融资服务，而市场之间的互联互通也为资金的流动性以及可持续融资提供了通畅渠道。最后，资本市场是供给侧改革的重要抓手。资本市场通过其价格发现功能和市场信息的反馈，引导资金流向最有生产性和最具创新潜力的部门。不同阶段股权资本的定价与交易有助于促进企业提高经营效率，推动资本形成和使用。企业在资金的有效配置下积极进行技术研发，提高生产力从而进一步促进就业以及提高居民收入，同时积极探索服务创新以迎合消费者需求。资本市场的多种金融产品也可以帮助投资者分散风险，增加财富安全性。长期稳定的资本市场有助于提振居民长期收入增长预期，充分发挥财富效应，使得居民消费意愿进一步转化为切实的消费行为。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n科技金融的主战场。资本市场改革纵深推进拓宽企业融资渠道，为科创企业引入资金活水。本次中央金融工作会议提出了金融工作的五篇大文章，首篇就是科技金融，可见金融赋能科技的重要性，也深刻体现了金融强国之于科技强国的重要支撑作用。学术研究中，科技创新与经济增长之间的关系由来已久，但无论是古典经济增长理论，到创新理论，还是新经济增长理论，科技进步都是经济增长的重要动力。基础科学的突破、科技产业的发展既是国家竞争力提升的基石，也是全要素生产率提振的关键。从专利数量来看，中国专利申请授权数量以及提交PCT国际专利的申请量已跻身全球前列，2023年上半年科创板公司新增发明专利合计达到7600项。从研发投入来看，政府研发支出占GDP比重近年来持续提升，但相比发达地区仍有增长空间。科创板公司2023年上半年研发投入金额合计达到706亿元，同比增长19%，企业投入持续增加。从当前的融资结构来看，中国金融体系仍然以银行间接融资为主。间接融资的管理体系使之天然向持有固定资产以作抵押的传统企业倾斜，科创企业“轻资产、高投入、高风险、长周期”等特点也对间接融资模式构成一定的挑战。一方面，直接融资与科创企业的资金需求更为匹配。直接融资与传统银行融资体系相辅相成，弥补间接融资不足，在企业发展初期引入资金驱动，匹配科创企业融资节点，同时减少了中间环节，有效降低融资成本，在满足市场资金配置需求的同时，也有助于减少企业对银行贷款的过分依赖，降低整体金融系统风险。另一方面，多层次资本市场的不断推进有助于引导产业结构优化调整。随着注册制改革不断深化，科创板、创业板、北京证券交易所等市场分工明确，为科技企业提供了全生命周期融资服务体系。多层次资本市场之间的互联互通也为创业投资提供了良好退出机制，有助于促进资金流动寻找迭代产品，鼓励企业创新活动不断推进。\n\n\n\n\n\n\n对外开放的增幅器。中国资本市场开放促进境内企业与全球资本对接，推进经济合作与资源优化配置，提升自身国际化程度，为人民币作为投融资载体以及储备货币提供落地空间。首先，资本市场为境内企业与全球资本对接提供了可持续发展的窗口。从沪港通、深港通、债券通，到港币-人民币双柜台模式，内地与香港资本市场的互联互通不断深化，香港已经成为境内投资者投资到境外或国际投资者投资到境内资本市场的重要联系人。深沪港通九年累计总成交金额达111.8万亿元人民币，为境外投资者直接参与中国股票和债券市场提供了连接渠道，为实体经济尤其是跨国企业注入了新的资金活力，促进了国际经济合作。其次，资本市场开放提升中国市场国际化水平。随着中国资本市场的进一步开放，国际金融机构和跨境投资者在中国市场的参与度不断提高。学术研究表明，新兴资本市场开放有助于其提升投资效率，降低融资成本，优化投资者结构，传递成熟的投资理念，减少资本市场波动（Bae, Ozoguz, Tan and Wirjanto, 2012）。同时，扩大资本市场开放对于监管水平提出了更高的要求，有助于提高信息披露质量，改善资本市场定价效率，促使中国资本市场改善监管框架和市场运作机制，提高市场效率和透明度。最后，中国资本市场不断完善走向国际有利于推动人民币进一步国际化。根据环球银行金融电信协会(SWIFT)的数据， 截至2023年11月, 人民币在全球支付的占比达到4.61%，超过日元成为全球第四大最活跃货币，人民币国际化进程成果颇丰。根据《2023年人民币国际化白皮书》，2022年人民币跨境收付金额达到42.1万亿元，其中经常项目人民币跨境收付金额合计为10.5万亿元，资本项目人民币跨境收付金额合计为31.7万亿元。安全、稳定、高流动性、高收益的资本市场有助于强化人民币作为国际储备货币的功能，提高人民币在国际金融市场作为投融资载体的地位，从而推动人民币国际化行稳致远。\n参考文献：\nBae, K.H., Ozoguz, A., Tan, H., and Wirjanto, T.\nS., \n2012. Do foreigners facilitate information transmission in emerging markets? Journal of Financial Economics, 105(1), pp. 209-227.\nBen, R.A. and Boughrara, A., \n2013. Financial liberalization and stock markets efficiency: New evidence from emerging economies. Emerging Markets Review, 17(12), pp. 186-208.\nJoseph, K., Wintoki, B.M. \nand Zhang, Z., \n2011. Forecasting abnormal stock returns and trading volume using investor sentiment: Evidence from online search. International Journal of Forecasting, 27(4), pp. 1116-1127.\nBaker, M., and Wurgler, J., \n2007. Investor Sentiment in the Stock Market. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 21(2), pp. 129-152.\nPeltonen, T.A., Sousa, R.M. and Vansteenkiste, I.S., \n2012. Wealth effects in emerging market economies. 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