国信证券汽车行业年度策略：国内总量红利淡化把握出海和产业升级机遇

智通财经网2023-12-24

智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，国内总量红利淡化，短期受政策和库存周期扰动，结构性发展机遇在出海及电动智能化转型。该行指出，我国汽车工业从成长期迈入成熟期（2010-2022年销量复合增速3%)，面临三大特征、五大变化。三大特征分别为：1）总量红利逐渐淡化，汽车销量低增速常态化；2）新旧产能切换，整车格局生变；3）电动智能化变革（新技术加速搭载上车）、国产整车和零部件面临巨大投资机遇；...

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论股谈票
2023-12-26
论股谈票
作为工业经济的“压舱石”，汽车行业在出海方面保持稳中向好发展态势。2023年以来，能链智电加速海外充电桩市场布局，将充电服务“中国经验”输出到全球市场。6月，能链智电控股收购香港最大的光伏能源资产运营商——香港光电，切入香港分布式太阳能电站、香港电动汽车充电服务领域。

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14:14","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"国信证券汽车行业年度策略：国内总量红利淡化 把握出海和产业升级机遇","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2393061794","media":"智通财经网","summary":"国内总量红利淡化，短期受政策和库存周期扰动，结构性发展机遇在出海及电动智能化转型。","content":"<html><body><div> <p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002736\">国信证券</a>发布研究报告称，国内总量红利淡化，短期受政策和库存周期扰动，结构性发展机遇在出海及电动<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/5RE.SI\">智能</a>化转型。该行指出，我国汽车工业从成长期迈入成熟期（2010-2022年销量复合增速3%)，面临三大特征、五大变化。三大特征分别为：1）总量红利逐渐淡化，汽车销量低增速常态化；2）新旧产能切换，整车格局生变；3）电动智能化变革（新技术加速搭载上车）、国产整车和零部件面临巨大投资机遇；五大变化分别对应产品属性、生产工艺、电子电气（EE）架构、成本结构、商业模式的变化。</p><p><strong>国信证券主要观点如下：</strong></p><p><strong>增长点一：乘用车出口全球第一，零部件积极出海建厂</strong></p><p><strong>主机厂出口：</strong>我国整车出口持续突破（2023年1-10月中国乘用车累计出口360万辆，同比+73%，全球第一），国内车企上汽、奇瑞、吉利等具备完整配套体系；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>、小鹏等结合当地用车情况包括直营、授权、租赁、订阅等制度，快速打开海外市场,预计明年出口销量有望达到600万辆，同比+24%；<strong>零部件出海：</strong>国内汽车零部件承接全球汽车工业数十年，生产工艺和成本管控能力优秀，近年来逐步跟随客户进行属地化供货（北美、墨西哥、欧洲、东南亚等），有望开拓新的增量市场。</p><p><strong>增长点二：智能驾驶奇点时刻将至，看好华为+小米产业链</strong></p><p>智能驾驶是人工智能的重要应用场景之一，用户基数大（全球14亿保有量汽车），具备广阔市场空间。2024年<strong>技术（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>FSD端到端V12版本）+政策（L3试点推进）+爆款产品（华为、小米、新势力等）持续催化，具备L3能力的城市高阶智能驾驶车型销量渗透率有望突破单月5%</strong>，智能化产业进入加速时刻，看好智能驾驶感知层-决策层-执行层增量部件投资机会。推荐“零部件+HI（阿维塔）+智选模式（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601127\">赛力斯</a>、奇瑞、江淮、北汽）”三种模式赋能车企的华为产业链及量产元年的小米汽车产业链。</p><p><strong>增长点三：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300024\">机器人</a>与车端供应链高度重合度，2024年有望成为量产元年</strong></p><p>人形机器人与智能驾驶汽车本质上可分为感知-决策-执行三个层面，车端零部件（电机、电控、减速器、滚柱丝杠、软件、传感器、轴承等）与机器人重合度高，较多车端Know  how可沿用至机器人领域；特斯拉发布二代人形机器人视频加速行业进展，后续在大厂引领（特斯拉、小米、小鹏等）+技术迭代（FSD、AI大模型催化）+政策呵护三重催化下，人形机器人发展有望持续提速，2024年有望成为量产元年，带来相关产业链环节投资机遇。</p><p>风险提示：乘用车竞争加剧、经济复苏不及预期、销量不及预期风险。</p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>国信证券汽车行业年度策略：国内总量红利淡化 把握出海和产业升级机遇</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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把握出海和产业升级机遇\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-12-24 14:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1044714.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，国信证券发布研究报告称，国内总量红利淡化，短期受政策和库存周期扰动，结构性发展机遇在出海及电动智能化转型。该行指出，我国汽车工业从成长期迈入成熟期（2010-2022年销量复合增速3%)，面临三大特征、五大变化。三大特征分别为：1）总量红利逐渐淡化，汽车销量低增速常态化；2）新旧产能切换，整车格局生变；3）电动智能化变革（新技术加速搭载上车）、国产整车和零部件面临巨大投资机遇；...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1044714.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20231224/20231224141449_94420.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{"LU0348723411.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL HI-TECH GROWTH \"A\" (USD) INC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU1720051108.HKD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","BK4099":"汽车制造商","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc 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 how可沿用至机器人领域；特斯拉发布二代人形机器人视频加速行业进展，后续在大厂引领（特斯拉、小米、小鹏等）+技术迭代（FSD、AI大模型催化）+政策呵护三重催化下，人形机器人发展有望持续提速，2024年有望成为量产元年，带来相关产业链环节投资机遇。风险提示：乘用车竞争加剧、经济复苏不及预期、销量不及预期风险。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; 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国信证券汽车行业年度策略：国内总量红利淡化 把握出海和产业升级机遇

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国信证券汽车行业年度策略：国内总量红利淡化把握出海和产业升级机遇