明年美股怎么走？仍需看七大科技巨头AI盈利“脸色”

智通财经2023-12-11

标普500指数的命运越来越取决于少数几家最大的科技公司能否利用人工智能(AI)投资获得更高的利润。智通财经APP了解到，包括微软(MSFT.US)和英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的七家公司贡献了该指数今年约四分之三的涨幅。投资者痴迷于人工智能颠覆大部分经济领域的潜力，推动了大型科技股上涨。这些科技巨头的估值很高，平均市盈率为32倍，它们兑现人工智能盈利承诺的压力越来越大。摩根大通证券公司首席执行官...

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enjoylife168
2023-12-12
enjoylife168
美降息时间如延后，股价就可能下跌修正

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It is still necessary to look at the profit \"face\" of the seven major technology giants AI","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/958640c0814331a5e1880047cfd7fc47","symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":1.1,".SPX":1.1,".DJI":1.1},"content_text":"标普500指数的命运越来越取决于少数几家最大的科技公司能否利用人工智能(AI)投资获得更高的利润。智通财经APP了解到，包括微软(MSFT.US)和英伟达(NVDA.US)在内的七家公司贡献了该指数今年约四分之三的涨幅。投资者痴迷于人工智能颠覆大部分经济领域的潜力，推动了大型科技股上涨。这些科技巨头的估值很高，平均市盈率为32倍，它们兑现人工智能盈利承诺的压力越来越大。摩根大通证券公司首席执行官Mark Lehmann表示:“我们越来越接近这样一个时刻，即那些声称与人工智能相关的公司必须开始展示它们的利润。”“我不是在呼吁明年扩大市盈率;回报必须来自那些真正实现更高利润的公司。”这些公司在第三季度刚刚实现了创纪录的990亿美元利润。如今，人们对这些公司提出了更多的要求，表明这些今年市值增加了约5万亿美元的股票的风险有多高。它们在标普500指数中占比接近30%，对该指数的影响力比以往任何时候都大。英伟达是唯一一家由于对人工智能的需求而实现业绩大幅增长的大型公司。这家芯片制造商预计今年将产生约280亿美元的利润，远高于去年的约44亿美元。大部分收益来自所谓的加速器芯片的销售，这些芯片用于训练支持ChatGPT等应用程序的大语言模型。大型科技公司利润增长将放缓其他大型科技股尚未显示出多少人工智能方面的进展。由于向ChatGPT的开发商OpenAI投资了130亿美元，微软可以说是在人工智能领域处于第二有利地位的公司，但在截至6月份的财年中，微软的收益略低于上一财年。对于下一财年，分析师平均预计该公司收益将增长17%。股价的上涨速度超过了盈利预期。这7家公司的平均预期市盈率高于年初的约21倍，但低于7月份36倍的峰值。有些公司，比如Facebook的母公司Meta Platforms(META.US)，市盈率只有19倍，相对便宜。另一方面，特斯拉(TSLA.US)是估值最高的公司，市盈率为63倍。大型科技公司估值重返高位一些投资者认为，这些估值水平可能太低了。Jennison Associates的科技股投资组合经理Nick Rubinstein相信，人工智能带来的利润将帮助一些大型科技股在当前价格下看起来很划算。他表示:“我现在比很长一段时间都更兴奋。”“很多行业都能从中受益，而人工智能的军火商应该会受益更多。”七大科技巨头还包括苹果(AAPL.US)、亚马逊(AMZN.US)和谷歌母公司Alphabet (GOOG.US)。这些巨头以及标普500指数的未来涨幅，至少在一定程度上取决于宏观背景。投资者对前景感到乐观:美国将避免陷入衰退，美联储最早将在2024年上半年降息。许多人不愿预测科技股明年会下跌。但Leuthold Group的高级研究分析师兼联席投资组合经理Phil Segner表示，即使这些股票不下跌，在估值已经如此之高的情况下，尚不清楚它们还能上涨多少。例如，英伟达股价在2023年下半年的大部分时间里都在区间内徘徊，尽管该公司利润大幅增长。“认为这一趋势已经见顶是徒劳无益的，”Segner表示。“我不能说这种情况会持续到明年，但在某个时候，我认为人们应该意识到这些股票在他们的投资组合中存在的风险。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":0},"commentList":[{"id":251103788208320,"gmtCreate":1702312717532,"gmtModify":1702312719349,"author":{"id":"3497006675108652","authorId":"3497006675108652","name":"enjoylife168","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e6aa6e5e2392f958e0b4f4c6bac84d1f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"美降息时间如延后，股价就可能下跌修正","listText":"美降息时间如延后，股价就可能下跌修正","text":"美降息时间如延后，股价就可能下跌修正","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/251103788208320","repostId":2390805732,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.25.1","shortVersion":"4.25.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2390805732"}