锂电概念股绝地反攻！狂跌的碳酸锂价格要见底了吗？

财华社2023-12-06

12月6日，锂电概念板块在港A两市迎来暴力反弹！在A股市场，德瑞锂电（833523.BJ）涨近30%，科恒股份（300340.SZ）“20cm”涨停，四川金顶（600678.SH）、时代万恒（600241.SH）、永兴材料（002756.SZ）、恒兴新材（603276.SH）等均涨停，融捷股份（002192.SZ）、天齐锂业（002466.SZ），中矿资源（002738.SZ）、赣锋锂业（...

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Is the plummeting price of lithium carbonate going to bottom out?","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"81211":0.6,"300340":1,"600141":1,"600241":1,"600678":1,"603276":1,"002460":1,"09696":1,"01772":1,"01211":1,"00819":1,"002756":1,"002738":1,"002192":1,"002497":1,"002466":1,"BYDDY":0.6,"EVS.SI":0.6,"002594":0.6},"content_text":"12月6日，锂电概念板块在港A两市迎来暴力反弹！在A股市场，德瑞锂电（833523.BJ）涨近30%，科恒股份（300340.SZ）“20cm”涨停，四川金顶（600678.SH）、时代万恒（600241.SH）、永兴材料（002756.SZ）、恒兴新材（603276.SH）等均涨停，融捷股份（002192.SZ）、天齐锂业（002466.SZ），中矿资源（002738.SZ）、赣锋锂业（002460.SZ）等均纷纷走高。在港股市场，锂电概念同步冲高，止住“11连阴”。其中，赣锋锂业（01772.HK）涨7.01%，天齐锂业（09696.HK）涨6.46%，比亚迪股份（01211.HK）、天能动力（00819.HK）等跟涨。消息面上，碳酸锂期货连日大跌创出新低后，广州期货交易所出手了。12月6日，广期所公告称，碳酸锂期货2401合约已进入交割月前月，12月第十四个交易日结算时起，持仓限额将下降至1000手，本月最后一个交易日结算时起单位客户持仓限额下降至300手，个人客户持仓不得进入交割月。市场分析称，目前锂期货价格在很大程度上已经脱离当前的基本面，可能会短暂的“物极必反”。后续，价格是否会出现过度下跌后的修复，值得关注！碳酸锂价格持续疲软临近年末，空头氛围浓厚，近期国内锂期货价格持续跳水。12月4日，“白色石油”碳酸锂期货全线跌停，所有合约均跌破10万元大关。12月5日，碳酸锂期货主力合约连续第二个交易日跌停；12月6日，碳酸锂期货主力合约价格继续下挫，一度跌破9万元/吨，收盘下跌2.27%至9.245万元/吨，再创该期货7月上市以来的新低，与7月下旬最高点24.05万元/吨的价格相比，累计跌幅已超过60%。归根结底，期货市场下跌最主要源于碳酸锂现货市场的疲软。回顾碳酸锂行情，今年以来，碳酸锂现货市场价格经历了先跌、后涨、再跌的震荡过程。今年一季度，市场需求不及预期，动力电池库存高企，导致行业悲观气氛浓厚。电池级碳酸锂价格从去年11月的60万元/吨历史高点开始一泻千里，于今年4月中旬跌至16.75万元/吨。第二季度，由于碳酸锂现货市场价格跌破锂云母、锂辉石工艺生产成本线，叠加买方抄底、供方惜售等因素支撑，电池级碳酸锂现货市场价格逐步回升至30万元/吨以上。进入7月，终端新能源汽车增长放缓，加上供给释放预期增强，库存不断积压，市场对碳酸锂供需过剩的担忧持续升温，现货市场价格不断滑坡。目前，碳酸锂现货价格仍处于下行通道中。截至12月6日，电池级碳酸锂均价报12.25万元/吨，已逼近多数企业10万元/吨成本线。短短一年的时间，电池级碳酸锂价格跌近八成。从目前的价格来看，外购锂矿石、云母提锂等途径所得到的碳酸锂成本均与市场价格形成倒挂，部分高成本矿企选择停产减产。实际上，锂价的断崖式下跌，已体现在各大锂盐厂商的成绩单上，尤其是上游矿企，前三季度的业绩堪称“凉凉”。以锂矿巨头赣锋锂业(01772.HK)(002460.SZ)为例，前三季度，赣锋锂业净利润均遭腰斩，降幅为59.38%。单季度看，第三季度的业绩更是直线坠落，净利润同比骤降97.88%。其对手天齐锂业(09696.HK)(002466.SZ)的成绩也没能幸免。前三季度，天齐锂业的净利润同比下滑49.33%，第三季度单季，净利润亦同比大跌70.89%。除了上述两大巨头外，在A股上市的融捷股份（002192.SZ）、雅化集团（002497.SZ）、兴发集团（600141.SH）等锂矿厂商净利润亦均遭遇“滑铁卢”。碳酸锂价格暂难言见底？那么，碳酸锂价格何时跌到头？这是市场最关心的问题。展望后市，在现货需求偏弱而供应宽松的情况下，大部分机构的观点都谈不上乐观。首先，从基本面看，在供应端，长期供应放量确定性较高。虽然，现锂价跌破10万元，导致许多高成本锂盐厂商处于较大亏损状态，纷纷选择减产或停产。但明年是矿山和盐湖放量的大年，阿根廷、津巴布韦在内的多个锂项目集中产出投产，将给市场贡献较多增量。其次，短期需求难有起色。下游采买情绪有一定恢复，但下游厂商整体仍以清库存为主；库存端，周度库存尚未出现明显改善迹象。整体来看，碳酸锂基本面维持弱势，中长期仍是偏空指引。中信建投期货分析师张维鑫认为，2024年供给过剩基本是市场的一致预期，区别只在于过剩的幅度。该机构表示，受碳酸锂期货价格持续下跌影响，中下游买方态度谨慎、采购愈发按刚需进行，下游再度进入去库存状态，现在市场实际上陷入了价格越跌、需求越弱的恶性循环。宝城期货也认为，目前，市场悲观情绪浓厚，对后市缺乏信心，是影响行情走势的主要原因。碳酸锂处于供大于求的供需格局，下游库存高企，需求不见增量，碳酸锂产业周期性下跌趋势还会持续，成本高的企业终被行业淘汰，需关注储能需求激增的可能。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2389103439"}