谷歌绩后暴跌重蹈特斯拉覆辙？原来是高估值惹的祸

智通财经2023-10-26

公司的定价是完美的。一旦出现任何疲软迹象，它们就会遭到大幅抛售。在一个债券收益率摇摆不定、收益不确定、美联储发出的信息好坏参半的世界里，你在寻找一个统一的理论来解释股市的问题吗?试的估值。简而言之，在少数人工智能超级股连续七个月的上涨下，它们的估值太高了，还有什么能解释特斯拉和Alphabet(GOOGL.US)的盈利失误为何在一周内演变成超过9%的单日跌幅?对于谷歌的母公司来说，这是有史以来在...

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雪队长
2023-10-26
雪队长
跌，是因为有人在卖出google的股票。
ruan_7128
2023-10-26
ruan_7128
跌了都有各种解释的理由

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It turned out to be a disaster caused by high valuation","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLL":1,"TSLA":1,"GOOGL":1,"GOOG":1},"content_text":"公司的定价是完美的。一旦出现任何疲软迹象，它们就会遭到大幅抛售。在一个债券收益率摇摆不定、收益不确定、美联储发出的信息好坏参半的世界里，你在寻找一个统一的理论来解释股市的问题吗?试的估值。简而言之，在少数人工智能超级股连续七个月的上涨下，它们的估值太高了，还有什么能解释特斯拉和Alphabet(GOOGL.US)的盈利失误为何在一周内演变成超过9%的单日跌幅?对于谷歌的母公司来说，这是有史以来在公布财报后第二严重的被抛售。固定收益压力和宏观经济的不确定性交织在一起——对美国国债的疲弱需求推高了收益率，而不断增长的供应令债券交易员感到担忧——但在周三这样的日子里，价格飙升是催化剂。JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O 'Rourke表示:“公司的定价是完美的。”“一旦出现任何疲软迹象，它们就会遭到大幅抛售。”这是一个经常被提及的股市飙升迅速消失的故事。由于盈利和预期保持稳定，而股价却在上涨，因此整个反弹是人们为同样的利润付出更多钱的结果。现在，随着5%的国债收益率诱使同样的资金回流，纳斯达克100指数的远期市盈率在三个月内从27降至22左右。周三，由于谷歌母公司Alphabet令人失望的云计算业绩给市场带来的影响超过了微软强劲的销售业绩，纳斯达克100指数下跌2.5%，创下今年以来最大单日跌幅。以科技股为主的该指数在过去九个交易日中第四次下跌超过1%，目前较7月的峰值下跌超过9%。尽管谷歌第三季度营收超过预期，部分原因是广告销售强劲，反映了搜索和YouTube的增长。然而，投资者仍将其市值削减至近1800亿美元，抛售了股价暴跌前市盈率超过21倍、预期销售额超过6倍的股票。FBB Capital Partners研究主管Mike Bailey表示：“看空者正在寻找任何今年迄今表现优异、盈利略有问题的股票作为抛售目标。谷歌符合这种要求。”可以肯定的是，在许多方面，以估值而非业务挑战(如销售额下降或信贷紧缩)为前提的抛售对投资者来说创伤最小。谷歌股价周三下跌13.20美元，仅相当于2023年高点涨幅的四分之一左右。截至10月中旬，该股今年已经上涨了近60%，只有最近的买家才出现了亏损。值得一提的是，谷歌的抛售模仿了特斯拉上周四的抛售。截至上周三，这家电动汽车制造商今年以来已累计上涨97%，在标普500指数成份股中排名第三。但该公司第三季度业绩低于市场对利润、销售和利润率的普遍预期，导致该公司股价下跌9.3%。这一结果促使一系列目标价下调。多头面临的问题是，即使自7月以来估值有所下降，纳斯达克100指数的市盈率仍远未达到低点。该指数市盈率目前略低于22，但仍远高于去年10月约19左右的底部估值，当时美国10年期国债收益率徘徊在5%左右。高盛资产配置研究主管Christian Mueller-Glissmann表示:“这是一些大型科技公司业绩疲弱和后端债券再度遭遇抛售的综合结果。最终，股票风险溢价处于多年低点，自夏季债券抛售开始以来进一步压缩——这给进一步加息和令人失望的收益留下了几乎没有缓冲余地。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":234547499401488,"gmtCreate":1698290348799,"gmtModify":1698290350247,"author":{"id":"4151992883617502","authorId":"4151992883617502","name":"雪队长","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/baf2ac10d40e60ebc5abd44b830d7093","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4151992883617502","authorIdStr":"4151992883617502"},"htmlText":"跌，是因为有人在卖出google的股票。","listText":"跌，是因为有人在卖出google的股票。","text":"跌，是因为有人在卖出google的股票。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/234547499401488","repostId":2378300008,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":234543137579280,"gmtCreate":1698289283901,"gmtModify":1698289285406,"author":{"id":"4131409357956500","authorId":"4131409357956500","name":"ruan_7128","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad7f9c1716c3dead55c9cc240346dcb","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4131409357956500","authorIdStr":"4131409357956500"},"htmlText":"跌了都有各种解释的理由","listText":"跌了都有各种解释的理由","text":"跌了都有各种解释的理由","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/234543137579280","repostId":2378300008,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2378300008"}