美股9月有难了？华尔街多头不同意：三大因素将“力挺”美股！

金十数据2023-09-08

尽管美股9月伊始便表现不佳，但BMO资本市场的策略团队预计，三大因素支撑下，标普500指数在今年剩余时间里可能出现两位数的涨幅……美国股市周三收低，标普500指数连续第三个交易日下跌，突显出9月美股下跌的季节性趋势。但华尔街一位最著名的看涨人士认为，标普500指数今年可能再涨13%。蒙特利尔银行（BMO）资本市场首席投资策略师Brian Belski周二晚间写道：“未来几个月仍有相当多的不确定性...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

蓝白红黑的间条衫
2023-09-09
蓝白红黑的间条衫
美股闹餐黑子们的日常！ 👽👽👽
我村我最帅
2023-09-08
我村我最帅
老美只能开赌场了
yesh13
2023-09-08
yesh13
镰刀在收割之前先喂点维生素

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2365527448?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/59a0c7ad9bce50bcf71104413aa89c99","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-09-08 07:39","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2365527448","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美股9月有难了？华尔街多头不同意：三大因素将“力挺”美股！","media":"金十数据","content":"<div>\n<p>尽管美股9月伊始便表现不佳，但BMO资本市场的策略团队预计，三大因素支撑下，标普500指数在今年剩余时间里可能出现两位数的涨幅……美国股市周三收低，标普500指数连续第三个交易日下跌，突显出9月美股下跌的季节性趋势。但华尔街一位最著名的看涨人士认为，标普500指数今年可能再涨13%。蒙特利尔银行（BMO）资本市场首席投资策略师Brian Belski周二晚间写道：“未来几个月仍有相当多的不确定性...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=121698&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"xnew_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股9月有难了？华尔街多头不同意：三大因素将“力挺”美股！</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股9月有难了？华尔街多头不同意：三大因素将“力挺”美股！\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-09-08 07:39 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=121698&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>尽管美股9月伊始便表现不佳，但BMO资本市场的策略团队预计，三大因素支撑下，标普500指数在今年剩余时间里可能出现两位数的涨幅……美国股市周三收低，标普500指数连续第三个交易日下跌，突显出9月美股下跌的季节性趋势。但华尔街一位最著名的看涨人士认为，标普500指数今年可能再涨13%。蒙特利尔银行（BMO）资本市场首席投资策略师Brian Belski周二晚间写道：“未来几个月仍有相当多的不确定性...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=121698&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".SPX","symbol_name":"S&P 500 Index","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=121698&type=news&data_type=0","article_id":"2365527448","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/59a0c7ad9bce50bcf71104413aa89c99"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2365527448","pubTimestamp":1694129994,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"xnew_highlight","name":"金十要闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"标普500指数在今年剩余时间里可能出现两位数的涨幅。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jin10.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"translate_title":"Is it difficult for US stocks in September? Wall Street bulls disagree: Three major factors will \"support\" US stocks!","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc84eb43764b64f9ab7999e6c704b941","symbols_score_info":{".SPX":1.1},"content_text":"尽管美股9月伊始便表现不佳，但BMO资本市场的策略团队预计，三大因素支撑下，标普500指数在今年剩余时间里可能出现两位数的涨幅……美国股市周三收低，标普500指数连续第三个交易日下跌，突显出9月美股下跌的季节性趋势。但华尔街一位最著名的看涨人士认为，标普500指数今年可能再涨13%。蒙特利尔银行（BMO）资本市场首席投资策略师Brian Belski周二晚间写道：“未来几个月仍有相当多的不确定性有待解决，这可能会导致更短时间的波动加剧，但我们仍然认为，到年底，美股走高是阻力最小的路径，我们的牛市情景（标普500指数涨至5050点）越来越有可能出现。”历史趋势预示着未来的收益Belski指出，从历史上看，美股在上涨20%后的六个月内，有71.4%的概率继续上涨，就像标普500指数从2023年开始的那样，这意味着9月份的季节性因素可能不会发挥作用。 他并不是唯一表达这种观点的人，Carson Group首席市场策略师Ryan Detrick对说，当美股年初至今涨幅超过10%时，9月份的季节性因素通常不会那么糟糕。Fundstrat研究主管Tom Lee最近预测，今年9月标普500指数将收涨。Lee在上周五的报告中写道：“我们认为9月的普遍谨慎将被证明是没有根据的，事实上，我们认为标普500指数在9月可能倾向于有2%到3%的涨幅，因为围绕通胀的共识正在向下转变。”高收益率并不意味美股“在劫难逃”抛开季节性因素不谈，蒙特利尔银行发出上述呼吁之际，美国整个夏季的经济数据强于预期，令一些经济学家担心通胀面临上行风险。10年期美国国债收益率正处于大衰退以来的最高水平（收益率上升可以视为投资者信心萎缩的迹象），华尔街看空者仍然担心，无论美联储是否再次加息，货币政策的滞后影响都将减缓经济增长。摩根大通首席市场策略师科拉诺维奇说，利率冲击和货币紧缩的风险是“明显的”，他指出，对消费者信贷紧缩、全球房地产和企业融资的担忧可能会导致潜在的劳动力市场放缓。但Belski和其他华尔街看涨者指出，许多人预测2023年的经济衰退还没有发生。在经历了历史上激进的加息运动之后，职位空缺和参与率回到了新冠疫情前的水平，并推动了消费者支出拥有超乎预期的弹性。与此同时，通胀的下降速度快于预期，尽管最近的上升让经济学家们犹豫不决。Belski写道：“除非这些指标的趋势在未来几个月出现明显的恶化，否则我们相信，传说中的软着陆情景正变得越来越可信。”美联储主席鲍威尔最近警告说，美联储一直在关注强于预期的经济数据，并准备将利率维持在高位，以降低通胀。但Belski在蒙特利尔银行的团队的分析显示，高利率并不一定意味着美股“在劫难逃”。自1979年以来，当10年期美国国债收益率低于其三年平均值时，标普500指数在第二年上涨10.6%，而当收益率高于其三年平均值时，标普500指数第二年将上涨8.6%。Belski写道，“更重要的是，如果美债收益率开始从当前水平下滑，我们的分析显示，即使美债收益率仍高于平均水平，美股也可以实现两位数的涨幅”。盈利增长有望改善最后，被一些人视为股价唯一最重要驱动因素的盈利预期正在上升。Factset最近的数据显示，在7月和8月期间，分析师对2023年剩余时间和2024年全年的盈利预测进行了上调。自2021年第三季度以来，每个季度的前两个月都没有调整过盈利预期。Belski认为，这对公司未来的盈利和股价都是一个好兆头。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":217843514593496,"gmtCreate":1694219106203,"gmtModify":1694219108596,"author":{"id":"3546057439648684","authorId":"3546057439648684","name":"蓝白红黑的间条衫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ded5db61c69b7abc937bc62d16afdd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3546057439648684","authorIdStr":"3546057439648684"},"htmlText":"美股闹餐黑子们的日常！ 👽👽👽","listText":"美股闹餐黑子们的日常！ 👽👽👽","text":"美股闹餐黑子们的日常！ 👽👽👽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/217843514593496","repostId":2365527448,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":217700664865024,"gmtCreate":1694184242041,"gmtModify":1694184244867,"author":{"id":"4091574108298570","authorId":"4091574108298570","name":"我村我最帅","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6157323ad90593c9d387dea3d5d32b89","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0a2963eb37c60c5d6d4a8dbcd266952","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4091574108298570","authorIdStr":"4091574108298570"},"htmlText":"老美只能开赌场了","listText":"老美只能开赌场了","text":"老美只能开赌场了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/217700664865024","repostId":2365527448,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":217670356025560,"gmtCreate":1694160322822,"gmtModify":1694160324272,"author":{"id":"4127170836475452","authorId":"4127170836475452","name":"yesh13","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a21e769c74362415f2968288411016dc","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/646756f1284a5a6480ed02cc4fa7d1d2","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4127170836475452","authorIdStr":"4127170836475452"},"htmlText":"镰刀在收割之前先喂点维生素","listText":"镰刀在收割之前先喂点维生素","text":"镰刀在收割之前先喂点维生素","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/217670356025560","repostId":2365527448,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2365527448"}