华尔街多头：美股将开启长达一个月反弹，有四大理由

智通财经2023-08-31

美国投资机构Fundstrat Global Advisors联合创始人兼研究主管Tom Lee表示，美股即将开始长达一个月的反弹，这可能使标普500指数回到2023年的高点。尽管华尔街普遍认为美股9月份将表现疲软，但该分析师预计标普500指数下个月将上涨2%-3%，重新夺回4,600点的水平，收复8月份的失地。此前，Lee还预测该基准指数今年将创下历史新高。下文将阐述支持Lee乐观观点的四个理由...

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倚天绝月
2023-09-01
倚天绝月
8月份只有A股的投资者悲观吧美股充满希望
辰刃
2023-09-01
辰刃
一个月后再来看

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Lee表示，美股即将开始长达一个月的反弹，这可能使标普500指数回到2023年的高点。尽管华尔街普遍认为美股9月份将表现疲软，但该分析师预计标普500指数下个月将上涨2%-3%，重新夺回4,600点的水平，收复8月份的失地。此前，Lee还预测该基准指数今年将创下历史新高。下文将阐述支持Lee乐观观点的四个理由：一、经济正在降温。美联储在过去一年半的大幅升息正起到给经济降温的作用，Lee预计劳动力市场将出现更多令人鼓舞的迹象。他指出，美国7月JOLTS职位空缺数量降至880万，也低于预期的950万。这对股市来说是个好消息，因为美联储以就业市场吃紧为理由加息，这对资产价格造成了压力。较高的利率是标普500指数在2022年表现不佳的部分原因，那一年股市下跌了20%。二、美联储不会加息。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团(CME)的美联储观察工具(FedWatch)显示，市场目前预计美联储在9月政策会议上维持利率不变的可能性为91%，到今年年底利率维持在当前水平的可能性为57%。由此可见，市场已经反映出美联储将在9月再次加息的可能性很低，而Lee甚至预计美联储完全不可能加息。Lee表示：“考虑到通胀和劳动力市场的持续下滑，以及通胀预期的预期下调，我们认为这种可能性将降至0%。这应该会使利率相应下降。”三、8月投资者过于悲观。8月份，投资者过于悲观，这可能是一个反向指标，表明股市将在下个月表现更好。Lee补充道：“我们相信，过去的一周更多地证明了‘鹰派’的锚定偏见。”四、9月是股市历史上表现强劲的一个月。虽然股市历来在8月份表现疲弱，但通常在9月份反弹。自1950年以来，标普500指数在9月有86%的时间是上涨的，平均涨幅为3.3%。Lee警告称，即将到来的股市涨势可能面临来自多个市场风险的阻力，比如美联储出人意料地升息，或者美国汽车工人联合会(UAW)下个月举行罢工，这可能令股市承压。不过，Lee目前仍是华尔街最乐观的预测者之一，他在之前的一份报告中预测，标普500指数今年将创下4,825点的历史新高。值得一提的是，他去年也做出了类似的预测，但该基准指数实际上创下了2008年以来的最差表现。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":215007027367984,"gmtCreate":1693523922200,"gmtModify":1693523925021,"author":{"id":"3460256145217351","authorId":"3460256145217351","name":"倚天绝月","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/051194d5fad0984af9b88b9d930fa4e0","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"8月份只有A股的投资者悲观吧 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