为什么做空英伟达很难？分析师：它垄断了AI经济

华尔街见闻2023-08-18

华尔街在下周三英伟达财报前愈发乐观，看来未来几个季度GPU严重供不应求对其业绩的推动。不少主流投行将英伟达列为追逐AI热潮的“首选个股”，也有分析担心，英伟达财报将是对AI炒作的最大考验。目前英伟达和华尔街都认为，二季度营收将突破100亿美元创新高。“AI宠儿”英伟达将于8月23日下周三盘后公布二季度财报。尽管该股今年迄今累涨超180%，华尔街分析师仍对其未来涨势信心满满，建议投资者逢低买入。...

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精彩评论

Wyaple
2023-08-18
Wyaple
哈哈，我赌一手财报后大跌[龇牙]
- 财运小七:
  不可能，绝对不可能
龙小倩
2023-08-18
龙小倩
说说你对这篇新闻的看法...
shaoyi
2023-08-18
shaoyi
财宝后大概率暴跌。
鉴投虎
2023-08-18
鉴投虎
牛啊

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Rakers将英伟达目标价从450美元上调至500美元，较周一收盘价还有14%的增幅空间，理由是“很难否定英伟达作为人工智能驱动的架构数据中心转型主要受益者的卓越地位，该公司在平台扩张和货币化方面仍然存在未被充分认识的机会。”券商Baird的分析师Tristan Gerra将目标价从475美元上调至570美元，代表还能再涨30%，理由是“个人、企业和云服务供应商的各个层面AI需求都在激增。”摩根士丹利分析师Joseph Moore周一建议利用英伟达最近两周股价下跌作为买入契机，称之“将从AI中受益的公司首选”。目前该股较7月18日创下的历史收盘新高474.94美元回调近9%。大摩给出目标价也为500美元，理由是对英伟达GPU“相当特殊的供需失衡状况将在未来几个季度持续”，目前需求的一半都无法得到满足，一旦供应改善，其数据中心的优势将进一步扩大。主流分析师普遍承认“当前存在企业支出大规模转向人工智能的宏观背景”，瑞银分析师Timothy Arcuri也建议逢低买入英伟达，提升目标价至540美元，称英伟达“实际上是拥王者（kingmaker）的地位”，因为大量资本正在追逐新的AI软件和专门的云基础设施模型”：“即使对于更具战术性的投资者来说，现在‘下车’似乎仍然为时过早。因为与上年同期业绩的比较直到2024财年底才会变得艰难，英伟达很少在同比比较见顶之前达到股价顶峰。”上文提到的巴克莱分析师维持600美元目标价不变，同样提到“尽管企业支出已经减弱，但云资本支出预算正在转向人工智能”的趋势。他们预计，随着供应改善，华尔街对英伟达2025财年每股收益的预期会从15美元上调至超过20美元，这令该股当下估值与业绩潜力对比“很便宜”。券商Raymond James分析师Srini Pajjuri周二维持“强劲买入”评级，将目标价从450美元上调至500美元，称英伟达业绩超预期和不断上调指引的趋势将延续到2024自然年，理由同样是：“尽管云资本支出趋势参差不齐，但人工智能支出热潮中对GPU的需求仍显著超过供应”：“供应紧张问题可能会限制英伟达的近期股价上行空间，但生成式人工智能的故事仍然完好无损。考虑到英伟达在人工智能和机器学习领域的主导地位，如此高的估值是合理的。预计2024财年第三季度会有更高的毛利率和好于预期的数据中心收入，将令英伟达业绩更加强劲。”券商Piper Sandler分析师Harsh Kumar也认为第三财季英伟达将在数据中心业务的助力下维持高速增长，本周将目标价上调至500美元，除了看好大型云公司的需求外，还强调中国需求推动：“第三财季英伟达可能录得95亿美元的数据中心收入，2024财年的整体数据中心收入或达到约320亿美元。由于数据中心持续加速渗透以，及人工智能应用的持续领先市场份额，我们预计英伟达的数据中心收入将在2025财年进一步增长。”英伟达财报将是对AI炒作的最大考验，公司掌门人称来自生成式AI的收入将相当大不过，德银的分析师Ross Seymore仍对英伟达评级“持有”，即态度更为谨慎。尽管他也承认英伟达财报将“令人惊叹”以及人工智能带来更多的上行空间，但“周期性风险可能会使该公司未来增长的幅度和斜率难以预测”，买方分析师超高预期下的“财报达标门槛”可能更难跨越。Forrester分析师Glenn O’ Donnell认为，英伟达下周财报将是“对人工智能炒作热潮的最大考验”，英伟达虽然很强大，“但并非无敌”，当下严重问题是根本无法满足客户的庞大芯片需求。一方面，AMD和英特尔等竞争对手可能崛起并窃取市场份额，同时，英伟达的首选代工厂台积电产能已捉襟见肘，近期需求激增令英伟达关键的H100芯片交货时间延长至6到9个月。特斯拉CEO马斯克便在二季报上称，正在使用自研人工智能芯片构建自己的超级计算机来满足需求。对此，雅虎财经专栏文章写道，尽管英伟达凭借对人工智能的早期投资建立了领先地位，但半导体业务的激烈竞争远近闻名，就像昔日巨头英特那样，没有哪个公司的行业领先地位是安全的：“虽然目前英伟达势头如此之大，以至于很难阻止它，但这并非不可能，只是很难。”心理学家和人工智能研究员Gary Marcus援引韩国室温超导LK-99被业内普遍证伪的例子称，“很少还有东西比AI更被炒作了”，分析师预估AI将有数万亿美元的市场，但据传目前生成式人工智能的实际收入只有数亿美元，“增长1000倍的收入只是猜测，而且可能永远不会到来。”但英伟达CEO黄仁勋强势看好数据中心从依赖CPU向GPU转型的大趋势，涉及的数据中心基础设施价值高达1万亿美元：“以前数据中心100%所需的都是CPU，而越来越大的人工智能模型需要越来越多的计算能力，未来四至十年内，数据中心很大程度的升级和增长将转移到生成式人工智能。”黄仁勋曾在3月份的英伟达开发者大会上表示，在过去12个月中，生成时AI只占公司收入的“极小、极小、极小”个位数百分比，但未来12个月中，来自生成式AI的收入将变得“相当大——具体有多大，很难说。”他预测，人工智能及英伟达基础设施即服务（infrastructure-as-a-service）产品“将扩展我们的商业模式”：“云服务提供商面临挑战，因为人工智能模型的规模预计每年增加10倍。这些模型需要大量的服务器能力，预计这种需求将促进英伟达的硬件销售。 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