通胀正在下降，加息结束在望，为什么美债收益率仍在上升?

智通财经2023-08-18

周四，美国10年期国债收益率达到4.30%，创下2008年以来的最高水平，较今年4月创下的3.68%的低点大幅上涨。美债收益率上升削弱了美股在2023年的强劲反弹，令市场感到困惑和沮丧，因为在通胀下降的背景下，美联储的加息行动即将结束，理论上收益率的走势应该正好相反。那么，美债收益率为什么会不断走高呢?经济强劲美联储或长期维持高利率第一个原因是最简单的。经济太过强劲，无法再支持近期衰退的说法。在...

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文狸
2023-08-18
文狸
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蹦米
2023-08-18
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2023-08-18
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Why are US bond yields still rising?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b6bbc52fe220e2e7910e0affd10b1702","symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"BND":0.9,"IEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IEI":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SHY":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TLT":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"DOG":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"GOVT":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"TNmain":0.6,"UBmain":0.6,"ZBmain":0.6,"ZFmain":0.6,"ZTmain":0.6},"content_text":"周四，美国10年期国债收益率达到4.30%，创下2008年以来的最高水平，较今年4月创下的3.68%的低点大幅上涨。美债收益率上升削弱了美股在2023年的强劲反弹，令市场感到困惑和沮丧，因为在通胀下降的背景下，美联储的加息行动即将结束，理论上收益率的走势应该正好相反。那么，美债收益率为什么会不断走高呢?经济强劲 美联储或长期维持高利率第一个原因是最简单的。经济太过强劲，无法再支持近期衰退的说法。在紧张时期，投资者将涌向美国国债等避险资产，从而导致收益率下降。然而现在，市场已经将经济衰退的预期最早推迟到了明年第一季度。“尽管美联储进行了几十年来最激进的加息行动，但美国经济持续强劲，已导致债券市场开始从价格上消化经济衰退的直接风险。此外，这也排除了降息的即时性，”LPL Financial首席固定收益策略师Lawrence Gillum表示。最后一点关于立即降息的定价很重要。美联储成功地扭转了局面，在降低通胀的同时保持了经济完好无损，因此在经济数据开始恶化之前，美联储可能认为没有必要降息。目前，市场上关于美联储将“长期维持高利率”的说法占主导地位，即使消费品和批发价格稳步下降，利率仍将保持在高位。或者，用摩根大通分析师Brandon Hall的话来说，市场正在“降低降息预期，而不是提高加息预期。”大量美债供应导致美债价格下跌收益率上升的另一个原因是，市场上有大量的美债供应。回顾一下，债券收益率随着价格下跌而上升，当某种东西的供应增加时，它就会对价格造成压力。由于联邦预算赤字加深，财政部仅本季度就将发行1万亿美元的债券，下季度还将再发行8520亿美元。“这一额外供应正值美联储减持国债之际，这一过程实际上迫使政府向公众出售更多美国国债，\" Hall表示。其他中央银行的影响其他央行采取的行动也会对美债价格施加压力,并推高收益率。日本央行出人意料地放松了对其政府债券的控制，推高了这些债券的收益率，使其对国内投资者更具吸引力，而不是美国国债。但这些解释未必能安抚那些在8月份目睹了股市的反弹戛然而止而紧张不安的股票投资者。科技股尤其受到利率上升的威胁，因为它们的高增长依赖于廉价债务，投资者几乎没有其他选择来获得如此丰厚的回报。专家预测，今年美国国债收益率将继续走高，下季度美国10年期国债收益率并非不可能达到4.5%。\"我们的基本预测仍然是，由于美联储加息导致利率上升，美国经济将放缓或收缩，\" LPL的Gillum表示。“因此，尽管我们仍然认为10年期国债收益率将在今年年底走低，但只要经济数据继续出人意料地上行，短期内美国国债收益率可能仍高于我们3.25%-3.75%的目标区间。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":210232928854200,"gmtCreate":1692346863642,"gmtModify":1692346865082,"author":{"id":"4091320857230770","authorId":"4091320857230770","name":"文狸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e0accf8ec1b32c54695421b619b4620","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4091320857230770","idStr":"4091320857230770"},"htmlText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","listText":"[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;[财迷]&nbsp;","text":"[财迷] [财迷] [财迷]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/210232928854200","repostId":2360037963,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":210233231933664,"gmtCreate":1692346852206,"gmtModify":1692346853351,"author":{"id":"3486526861498606","authorId":"3486526861498606","name":"蹦米","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff26f8664831735bb29461d17dec2dac","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3486526861498606","idStr":"3486526861498606"},"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/210233231933664","repostId":2360037963,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":210229356482624,"gmtCreate":1692346043158,"gmtModify":1692346044486,"author":{"id":"3486526861498606","authorId":"3486526861498606","name":"蹦米","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff26f8664831735bb29461d17dec2dac","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3486526861498606","idStr":"3486526861498606"},"htmlText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","listText":"[开心]&nbsp;[开心]&nbsp;","text":"[开心] [开心]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/210229356482624","repostId":2360037963,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":4,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2360037963"}