美联储内部争议重点转向：以前是利率要升多高，现在是高利率要多久

华尔街见闻2023-08-16

即便通胀继续降温，假如美联储官员讨论多长时间内保持利率稳定，也可能有助于他们推迟市场的降息预期时间，并且能继续对经济施加下行压力。本月末的杰克逊霍尔会议是一个讨论利率重心转变的机会。随着美联储的加息周期步入尾声，联储官员的争论焦点开始转变，以前他们主要考虑政策利率需要升多高，现在侧重考虑，高利率需要保持多久。期货交易市场的定价显示，投资者目前总体预期，美联储9月19日到20日的会议不会加息，将决定...

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Sack评论称，美联储决策者未来最有可能关注的层面不是政策利率要升到多高，而是高位得保持多久。如果他们愿意，通过这种方式收紧金融环境的空间还很大。上周公布的美国7月CPI一年来首次同比加快增长，但增速低于市场预期，核心CPI同比放缓增长符合预期，环比增速均持平6月、符合预期，核心CPI还创两年多最低点连月增幅。数据公布后，被视为“美联储喉舌”、有“新美联储通讯社”之称的记者Nick Timiraos评论称，7月CPI同比涨幅有所上升，但当月的价格压力仍然温和，核心CPI的进展令人鼓舞，这可能阻止美联储9月加息，令联储决定9月保持利率不变。最近美联储官员的言论暴露了内部分歧。上周，拥有今年美联储货币政策委员会FOMC会议投票权的费城联储主席哈克称，只要近期经济数据继续保持稳定，美联储可能就处在可停止加息的节点，但利率需要在较高水平维持一段时间。而任内永久拥有FOMC会议投票权的美联储理事鲍曼上周重申，联储需要继续加息，全面恢复价格稳定。他认为，现在通胀还太高、就业太火，预计联储还需要进一步加息，才能让通胀回落到正常水平。本月稍早，美联储三把手、长期有FOMC投票权的纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，他认为利率已经非常接近峰值，“一旦我们充分了解了这一点，真正的问题就是，我们需要将限制性立场的政策保持多久。”本周二，明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利（Neel Kashkari）表示，他看到了一些正面的迹象，但他没有准备好认定抗通胀大功告成。他认为，在决定是否需要进一步加息以前，可以再多花一点时间、得到更多数据观察。SGH Macro Advisors的首席美国经济学家Tim Duy评论称，美联储官员尚未明确他们计划将利率保持稳定多久，部分原因是他们自己还没弄清楚。他们可能在本月24日到26日举行的杰克逊•霍尔（Jackson 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