茅台价格不再飞天

格隆汇2023-07-05

价格倒挂背后茅台降价了。6月一开始，茅台飞天价格就开始轻微下跌，一直到现在。有业内人士表示，黄牛回收价目前降到了2700元，还有黄牛害怕价格跌破2700的关口就很难再涨回来，直接停收了。（数据来源：今日酒价）近年来，随着茅台产能提高、供应量增加，再加上茅台开瓶率不足，大家都“只买不喝”，让市场上茅台变得越来越多。端午节前，茅台再次加大供应量，各大电商平台纷纷放出配额，对茅台这种高单价商品进行大额...

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treebug
2023-07-06
treebug
又是一个旁氏罢了；就看谁接盘
爱赚钱的瓜子
2023-07-05
爱赚钱的瓜子
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flying","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bbba565df69b4f7c2e6b0c56d40e2eeb","symbols_score_info":{"600519":0.9},"content_text":"价格倒挂背后茅台降价了。6月一开始，茅台飞天价格就开始轻微下跌，一直到现在。有业内人士表示，黄牛回收价目前降到了2700元，还有黄牛害怕价格跌破2700的关口就很难再涨回来，直接停收了。（数据来源：今日酒价）近年来，随着茅台产能提高、供应量增加，再加上茅台开瓶率不足，大家都“只买不喝”，让市场上茅台变得越来越多。端午节前，茅台再次加大供应量，各大电商平台纷纷放出配额，对茅台这种高单价商品进行大额补贴，让囤货的人产生了观望心理，导致散瓶茅台价格下跌。作为白酒代表品牌，茅台的价格下跌是近期整个白酒行业的缩影。事实上，自2023年春节以来，白酒渠道库存普遍较高，但动销缓慢，导致一二线白酒均有不同程度的价格下降甚至倒挂，茅台价格仅轻微下降已经是唯一的例外。近半年来，不少人对白酒乃至食品饮料行业十分看好。那么，这半年来白酒发展到底如何？1 、令人失望2023年春节，随着疫情管控政策的放松，白酒企业纷纷霸榜央视春晚广告位。在春晚投放广告的18家品牌中，有七家是白酒品牌。除了茅台、五粮液、汾酒等，劲酒、习酒等新势力也纷纷登场。这迎合了相当多人对于白酒行业的期待。毕竟疫情三年过去，大家迫切希望能有聚会、消费，导致许多人开始了报复性消费。火热的“特种兵旅游”以及“淄博烧烤”均是在这种情况下应运而生。然而白酒股价并没有像大家所期望的那样一飞冲天，年初对白酒行情充满期待的投资者，到现在却被股市的反应背刺。近半年来，白酒企业表现欠佳，仅有三家酒企年涨幅在10%左右，酒鬼酒等多家酒企跌幅在10%以上，贵州茅台5月股价还创下年内最低。股市的表现和白酒行业表现紧密挂钩。今年上半年，白酒卖得并不好。通货紧缩、消费乏力，经销商、厂家都为此扣破脑袋。中国酒业协会近期发布的《2023中国白酒市场中期研究报告》显示，春节后，有四成的经销商认为白酒消费量相较去年同期有所减少，“五一”期间，则有三成的经销商表示白酒消费量有所减少。前不久的618大促也给白酒价格再泼了一盆冷水。各电商平台的酒类销量表现依然良好，但这样的销量来源于各大平台放出的折扣，价格进一步下降。在端午节期间，线下白酒区域也是门可罗雀。有店主表示生意相比去年少了近一半。尽管端午过去才不久，但是很多酒商已经开始期待中秋和国庆双节能够促进下半年的白酒消费复苏。不过按照以往规律，白酒市场在二季度迎来淡季，动销放缓属于正常，6月也属于承上启下的月份。因此，最近各酒企陆续召开股东大会及业绩说明会，多数酒企对全年目标达成仍旧抱有信心。这种乐观并不盲目。2 、短期调整白酒行业现在呈现出与以往不同的态势，开始了深度调整。自从2016年白酒产业复苏以来，市场竞争激烈，头部白酒优质产能增长，使得中小酒企加速衰落，资源向头部品牌进一步集中。规模以上白酒企业在2017年达到顶峰，2018年全国规模以上白酒企业为1445家，2022年已经下降到了963家。不过企业数量虽然减少，但白酒行业的营收仍在上升，从这个角度看，白酒行业的市场正在进一步像头部大品牌集中。现在白酒产业的繁荣很大程度也是在这些名酒品牌带动下的结构性繁荣。长此以往，强者更强、弱者更弱的马太效应可能会进一步增强。优质产能的发展还刺激了落后产能的淘汰。2016年至2022年，全国规模以上白酒企业产量从1358万千升下降到671万千升，总产量已经腰斩，整体产量规模呈负增长，说明白酒产业存在供给过剩的压力。这也是近期价格倒挂的根本原因。近一段时间以来，市场上一直存在着供过于求的问题，价格倒挂也并不是最近才出现的新现象。因此尽管端午动销一般，但是价格下探反而有助于酒企进一步清理库存，迎接下半年的消费高峰。白酒企业需要思考的是，如何让自己在竞争中存活下去。长久来看，酒企发展情况仍旧乐观，但是需要面临的，是转型的阵痛。因为喝白酒的人，已经越来越少。去年5月，茅台推出茅台冰淇淋，凭借着59元的高售价，在一年内以1000万杯的销量收入5.9亿元。尽管相比茅台主业收入微乎其微，但这相当于打响了茅台年轻化的第一枪。图源 图虫创意紧随茅台步伐，五粮液、泸州老窖等白酒品牌也纷纷跨界做起了冰淇淋。最近，舍得酒业也联合圣悠活共同推出冰淇淋新品。除了茅台冰淇淋，茅台酸奶、茅台咖啡也悄悄在茅台冰淇淋的线下门店上线。高高在上的白酒企业纷纷走下神坛，茅台则很明显走得更远。去年12月，里斯战略定位咨询发布了《年轻人的酒——中国酒类品类创新研究报告》。数据显示，年轻消费群体基数庞大，潜在的年轻酒饮人群高达4.9亿，年轻人酒饮市场规模达4000亿。但是相比啤酒、红酒等酒类产品，白酒的消费群体呈现出较为严重的年龄断层。图源：里斯战略定位咨询目前中国白酒的主要消费人群年龄集中在45岁左右，而年轻消费群体则对白酒的接受程度普遍较低，80后、90后的年轻消费群体只占白酒消费市场的26%。随着消费人群架构改变，年轻人逐渐成为消费主力军，白酒企业也需要走下神坛，吸引年轻人，白酒冰淇淋就成为了尝试的第一步。然而，茅台冰淇淋的“开门红”，局限于“开门”。之前还需要溢价购买的冰淇淋，现在已经无人问津。在年轻人的心里，白酒的形象仍旧是长辈和宴会的代表，许多年轻人更倾向于啤酒、红酒，也不太能接受白酒辛辣的口感。年轻人眼中的白酒关键词因此，茅台的夜光嘉年华、与大话西游手游的合作、发布的神曲《Oh It's Moutai》等，都是茅台等品牌身处变局，走向年轻化之路的必要举动之一。可以预见，未来将有越来越多白酒企业开始转型，年轻化、低度化，或许将逐渐成为酒企的主旋律。结语需要认识到，目前白酒短期市场形势不太乐观，动销放缓、价格倒挂，这些都与市场环境挂钩，仅凭企业难以完全解决。随着下半年经济刺激政策接连落地，或许可以期待迎来消费高峰。长期来看，白酒企业也需要面临吸引年轻消费者，重塑品牌形象的问题。但高端酒企品牌效应明显，商务活动以及宴会中，白酒仍旧不可或缺。许多人对于白酒的品牌价值仍旧相当认可，尽管茅台“酒喝不炒“的论调一直存在，但是茅台董事长丁雄军也曾说过，所有的价格实际上还是价值的体现。因此，白酒，将一直在酒桌上有着一席之地，但是，需要理性发展、沉稳增长。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":194942624293096,"gmtCreate":1688613363286,"gmtModify":1688613364892,"author":{"id":"3481001870129872","authorId":"3481001870129872","name":"treebug","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/60ecf14d704d26a201de47d350d9f79a","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3481001870129872","authorIdStr":"3481001870129872"},"htmlText":"又是一个旁氏罢了；就看谁接盘","listText":"又是一个旁氏罢了；就看谁接盘","text":"又是一个旁氏罢了；就看谁接盘","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194942624293096","repostId":2349639395,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":194742048117008,"gmtCreate":1688564425652,"gmtModify":1688564427311,"author":{"id":"3469825833798402","authorId":"3469825833798402","name":"爱赚钱的瓜子","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a25f9dd9f0e446d3efad0c87609406f2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3469825833798402","authorIdStr":"3469825833798402"},"htmlText":"**","listText":"**","text":"**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/194742048117008","repostId":2349639395,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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