美联储议息会议下周要开了，市场共识是：“Skip”！然后呢？

华尔街见闻2023-06-11

今年至少还有两次25基点加息？美联储6月“Skip”几无悬念，但未来加息仍存争议。北京时间下周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月议息结果，同时发布最新一季的经济预测摘要报告及利率点阵图，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。当下，关于加息的讨论中，“Skip”成了提及最多的词。多位美联储高官公开支持“跳过”6月加息，市场也定价美联储将在6月议息会议上暂停加息。不过，后续加息路径仍存争议，部分投资者认为6...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

我们需要你的真知灼见来填补这片空白

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2342547844?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-06-11 19:41","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2342547844","market":"uk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美联储议息会议下周要开了，市场共识是：“Skip”！然后呢？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>今年至少还有两次25基点加息？美联储6月“Skip”几无悬念，但未来加息仍存争议。北京时间下周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月议息结果，同时发布最新一季的经济预测摘要报告及利率点阵图，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。当下，关于加息的讨论中，“Skip”成了提及最多的词。多位美联储高官公开支持“跳过”6月加息，市场也定价美联储将在6月议息会议上暂停加息。不过，后续加息路径仍存争议，部分投资者认为6...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NzAwMzU0MA==&mid=2247582434&idx=2&sn=a8e6922a81b2a451aeda09197cf36716&chksm=a6e36a999194e38fa9f3ce1a5e9c3beeee97556c9fa363418fddc105d9c87b3df3c51f6810af#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":null,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储议息会议下周要开了，市场共识是：“Skip”！然后呢？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储议息会议下周要开了，市场共识是：“Skip”！然后呢？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-06-11 19:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NzAwMzU0MA==&mid=2247582434&idx=2&sn=a8e6922a81b2a451aeda09197cf36716&chksm=a6e36a999194e38fa9f3ce1a5e9c3beeee97556c9fa363418fddc105d9c87b3df3c51f6810af#rd><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年至少还有两次25基点加息？美联储6月“Skip”几无悬念，但未来加息仍存争议。北京时间下周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月议息结果，同时发布最新一季的经济预测摘要报告及利率点阵图，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。当下，关于加息的讨论中，“Skip”成了提及最多的词。多位美联储高官公开支持“跳过”6月加息，市场也定价美联储将在6月议息会议上暂停加息。不过，后续加息路径仍存争议，部分投资者认为6...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NzAwMzU0MA==&mid=2247582434&idx=2&sn=a8e6922a81b2a451aeda09197cf36716&chksm=a6e36a999194e38fa9f3ce1a5e9c3beeee97556c9fa363418fddc105d9c87b3df3c51f6810af#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPY","symbol_name":"标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NzAwMzU0MA==&mid=2247582434&idx=2&sn=a8e6922a81b2a451aeda09197cf36716&chksm=a6e36a999194e38fa9f3ce1a5e9c3beeee97556c9fa363418fddc105d9c87b3df3c51f6810af#rd","article_id":"2342547844","we_media_id":"1084101182","thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/02a85629f2a809e4eabd8677140a5f70"],"rights":{"source":null,"url":"http://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MjM5NzAwMzU0MA==&mid=2247582434&idx=2&sn=a8e6922a81b2a451aeda09197cf36716&chksm=a6e36a999194e38fa9f3ce1a5e9c3beeee97556c9fa363418fddc105d9c87b3df3c51f6810af#rd","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2342547844","pubTimestamp":1686483660,"sourceInfo":null,"weMediaInfo":{"media_name":"华尔街见闻","introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"summary":"今年至少还有两次25基点加息？美联储6月“Skip”几无悬念，但未来加息仍存争议。北京时间下周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月议息结果，同时发布最新一季的经济预测摘要报告及利率点阵图，随后美联储主席鲍威尔","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","BK4504":"桥水持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓"},"translate_title":"The Fed's interest rate meeting will be held next week, and the market consensus is: \"Skip\"! And then what?","themeId":"bb06b6db507748b8a29602011e40bf11","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81710aaf1348c703e700da1042a9ba7f","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.9,"513500":0.9,"ESmain":0.9,"UPRO":0.9,"TQQQ":0.9,"SSO":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"SH":0.9,"SDS":0.9,"SDOW":0.9,"PSQ":0.9,"OEF":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"DOG":0.9,"DJX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9},"content_text":"今年至少还有两次25基点加息？美联储6月“Skip”几无悬念，但未来加息仍存争议。北京时间下周四凌晨2点，美联储将公布6月议息结果，同时发布最新一季的经济预测摘要报告及利率点阵图，随后美联储主席鲍威尔将举行新闻发布会。当下，关于加息的讨论中，“Skip”成了提及最多的词。多位美联储高官公开支持“跳过”6月加息，市场也定价美联储将在6月议息会议上暂停加息。不过，后续加息路径仍存争议，部分投资者认为6月“Skip”吹向停止加息的前奏，而最新调查指出今年至少还有两次25基点加息。美联储6月“Skip”几无悬念继15个月前开启加息抗通胀行动以来，美联储或在6月议息会议上首次停下脚步。即使面对具有弹性的美国经济和持续的通货膨胀，预计FOMC将维持基准贷款利率在5%-5.25%的区间不变，同时预计最新点阵图显示2023年底联邦基金利率预期维持于5.1%。尽管美联储官员们持续加息减轻经济中的价格压力，但通胀仍远高于他们2%的目标。市场预期，美国5月核心CPI环比增速维持在0.4%，连续6个月保持在高位，整体CPI同比预计为4.1%，增速进一步回落。彭博经济学-Anna Wong和Stuart Paul对此指出：FOMC成员内部分歧加剧，部分成员认为货币政策具有滞后性，希望等待和观察迄今为止500个基点的加息对经济的影响如何，而更多的鹰派成员则认为利率还不够高，美联储不应该冒着落后于通胀曲线的风险，因此跳过加息不失为维持一致意见的合理方式。至少还有两次25基点加息？后续加息路径仍存争议，部分投资者认为6月“Skip”吹向停止加息的前奏，而最新调查指出今年至少还有两次25基点加息。见闻此前文章指出，部分投资者开始期待“跳过—>停止—>转向”。摩根士丹利指出，最近美联储的发言已经令市场对利率终值的预期降至5.3%，表明许多投资者确实认为跳过可能是停止的前奏。然而，据《金融时报》对经济学家的最新调查显示，经济学家认为FOMC需要采取比预期更强硬的行动来根除通胀，预计今年至少还有两次25基点的加息。在6月5日至6月7日期间接受调查的42名经济学家中，67%的人预测联邦基金利率今年将在5.5%和6%之间达到峰值，高出上一次调查的占比49%。超过一半的受访者表示，利率峰值将在第三季度或之前达到，而略高于三分之一的人预计将在今年最后三个月达到。预计在2024年之前不会降息，大部分人预测在明年第二季度或之后进行首次降息。值得一提的是，市场正在为7月加息25基点的可能性定价，一些美联储决策者强调，加息周期的暂停不应该被看作是最后的加息。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.1","shortVersion":"4.29.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2342547844"}