打乱美联储步伐！达成债务上限协议的杀伤力惊人

金十数据2023-05-29

准备迎接更大的风暴吧！债务上限协议中这一条款的影响恐怕被忽视了！一旦发挥作用将放大美联储加息的威胁……在美国经济本已受到几十年来最高利率和信贷收缩拖累之际，政府就提高债务上限达成的协议对政府支出设定上限，这给美国经济增添了新的不利因素。拜登和众议院议长麦卡锡在周末起草的临时协议如果在未来几天内在国会通过，将避免支付违约引发金融崩溃的最坏情况，但这也可能增加全球最大经济体经济下滑的风险，哪怕只是边际...

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wmin
2023-05-30
wmin
脑子有病？
谋远
2023-05-30
谋远
烂文
股市小小侠
2023-05-29
股市小小侠
嗯嗯
荷兰猪
2023-05-29
荷兰猪
可能吗，这种文章就别写了，跌份儿。

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Swonk）表示：“这将导致在货币政策收紧的同时，财政政策的收紧力度也略有加大。这两项政策都对经济起着反向作用，并且还相互放大影响。”预计支出限制将从10月1日开始的财政年度开始实施，尽管在此之前可能会出现一些小影响，例如通过收回疫情援助或逐步取消对学生债务宽限期等。然而，这些暂时不太可能出现对GDP产生影响。Evercore ISI高级美国政策和政治策略师托宾•马库斯（Tobin Marcus）认为，在谈判代表试图通过会计手段弥合分歧之际，评估支出限制在多大程度上只是“纯粹的噱头”，这是很重要的。即便如此，由于下一财年的支出预计将保持在2023年左右的水平，该协议所施加的限制将在经济可能出现收缩的时刻发挥作用。此前接受外媒调查的经济学家预计，美国第三和第四季度国内生产总值GDP年率将下降0.5%。摩根大通首席美国经济学家迈克尔·费罗利（Michael Feroli）表示：“经济衰退时，财政乘数往往更高，这意味一旦衰退，那么财政支出收缩可能会对GDP和就业产生更大的影响。”费罗利的最新观点仍认为美国可以避免衰退，这跟摩根大通的基本假设相符。双管齐下抗通胀！流动性将加速枯竭？在经济确实放缓的情况下，财政政策可能会与货币政策协同作用，以抑制通胀。上周公布的PCE报告显示，通胀仍远高于美联储的目标。Cresset资本管理公司首席投资官杰克•阿布林（Jack Ablin）表示：“这是一个重要的进展，货币和财政政策制定者十多年来首次朝着同一个方向努力。或许财政紧缩将是打压通胀的另一个因素。”尽管美联储自去年3月以来加息约5个百分点，但美国经济迄今仍具有弹性。由于对工人的需求达到历史最高水平，失业率仅为3.4%，这是半个多世纪以来的最低水平。旧金山联储最近的一项研究显示，消费者仍然有多余的储蓄可以使用。分析师马克·赞迪（Mark Zandi）则表示：“国会议员就提高债务上限达成的协议，就其对经济的意义而言，几乎是人们所能预期的最好结果。最重要的是，它阻止了违约。违约将意味着经济衰退。”美联储官员将进行一系列考虑，因为除了该协议对经济前景的影响外，它还将对货币市场和流动性产生一些影响。自1月触及31.4万亿美元债务上限以来，财政部一直在通过现金余额维持支付，一旦即将到来的立法暂停了上限，它将增加美国国债的销售。这波新发行的国库券将有效地抽走金融体系的流动性，尽管其确切影响可能难以评估。同时，美联储正以每月高达950亿美元的速度剥离其债券投资组合。未来几周和几个月经济学家将密切关注这一动态。长期来看影响不大？从长期来看，谈判代表精心设计的财政限制范围几乎肯定不会对联邦债务的轨迹产生什么影响。国际货币基金组织（IMF）上周表示，美国需要降低其基本预算（即不包括债务利息支付），规模约占GDP的5个百分点，“才能在2020年代末使公共债务走上一条明确的下行道路”。将支出保持在2023年的水平将远远无法达到这一水平。Evercore 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