NIO: It's Now Or Never

seekingalpha2023-05-04

SummaryNIO April deliveries were weakest in a year.New product launches need to drive massive volume growth.Company may need to raise additional capital.Andy FengTwo months ago, I covered the very ...

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Johnny812
2023-05-04
Johnny812
无论是腾讯等一众股权投资人，还是换电站的投资人，必定的结果就是血本无归！拿着特斯拉早年就放弃的换电技术当核心竞争力，关键的三电技术全部是拿来主义，靠彩电，冰箱，大沙发就自己定位成高端豪华品牌，整天拿奔驰，宝马说事，所谓的新平台无非就是外观，装饰，软件升级而已，这不是骗子是什么？现在消费者可选的产品太多，也没那么好骗了，慰来没有未来，死路一条！

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The company missed street estimates for revenues and gave Q1 2023 delivery guidance that was rather light. Since then, shares are down more than 16%, and they are now trading near a multi-year low. Investors are expecting big things from the company for the remainder of 2023, so it is time for NIO to step up and finally deliver.Let me first start with the latest news. This week, NIO announced that its April 2023 monthly delivery figure was 6,658 vehicles. While this was up more than 31% year over year, it was the lowest monthly number seen since last year's April mark of just over 5,000 units. A year ago, China was getting hit by the coronavirus, significantly impacting supply chains. As the chart below shows, the most recent number sent the 3-month rolling average below 10,000 units.NIO 3-Month Rolling Deliveries (Company Press Releases)Through the first third of the year, NIO sits at just under 37,700 deliveries. That number is up 22% year over year but would extrapolate to an annual rate that doesn't even top last year's total. Of course, management's target as stated on the Q4 conference call for this year is to double the 2022 total, which implies roughly 245,000 vehicles for 2023.This company has disappointed many times in the past, however, most recently being the 100,000 unit target for the back half of last year. That target was missed by almost 30%, and NIO still sits well below the 30,000 monthly volume target that was supposed to be seen in early 2023. As part of the significant ramp expected in the coming months, here is what NIO detailed as part of the current plan in the April release. NT2.0 is its next generation vehicle platform.In late April 2023, NIO started to steadily ramp up the production and delivery of the EC7, a five-seater smart electric flagship coupe SUV from NT2.0.On April 18, 2023, NIO debuted the All-New ES6, a smart electric all-round SUV, at the Shanghai Auto Show. NIO expects to officially launch the All-New ES6 and commence deliveries in May 2023.At the Shanghai Auto Show, NIO also launched the 2023 ET7, a smart electric flagship sedan based on NT2.0. Deliveries of the 2023 ET7 will start in May 2023.The All-New ES8, a smart electric flagship SUV based on NT2.0 that was launched at NIO Day 2022, is expected to commence deliveries in June 2023.It will be interesting to see how Q2 guidance fares, which hopefully we will see in the next month or so when the company reports full Q1 results. For the company to hit its full year target, it has to average 69,000 deliveries per quarter from Q2 to Q4. Obviously, the current period is likely to be well below that as these launches are just starting. Given's NIO history, I'm hesitant to think they'll get to 245,000 this year, but I also think management will try to reiterate guidance in a few weeks unless it definitely knows it can't get there.Beyond the expected revenue surge as deliveries ramp, NIO is hoping that much higher volumes can reduce ongoing losses. Last year's net loss was almost $2.1 billion, or more than $1.75 billion when excluding stock based compensation. The company reported a more than $2 billion decline in its cash and investment pile for 2022, ending at $6.6 billion. However, its working capital position weakened even more as the chart below shows, meaning the company may look to raise some more funds in the coming months to fund this production and delivery surge.NIO Working Capital (Company Earnings Releases)As for NIO shares, they currently sit about a dime from their multi-year low. The average analyst price target of $14.41 implies more than 93% upside from current levels, mainly based on the expectation for strong revenue growth moving forward. However, that average valuation figure has come down by more than $3 just since my previous article, and a year ago it was approaching $40.In the end, it's time for NIO to finally deliver some solid results. It seems that every quarter in recent years has been impacted by some major issue, whether it be production line upgrades, supply chain issues, or coronavirus shutdowns. Most of those problems should be in the rear view mirror now, with the NT2.0 platform expected to drive substantial growth for the remainder of 2023. With NIO stock trading just off its lowest point in a few years, this could be a speculative buy for those who believe in the story, but recent history suggests some disappointment may be in the cards.This article is written by Bill Maurer for reference only. Please note the risks.","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":656006627,"gmtCreate":1683180527370,"gmtModify":1683180530943,"author":{"id":"3547253536289088","authorId":"3547253536289088","name":"Johnny812","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e25d58788ab65295ce6f25b1c8015ea1","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3547253536289088","authorIdStr":"3547253536289088"},"htmlText":"无论是腾讯等一众股权投资人，还是换电站的投资人，必定的结果就是血本无归！拿着特斯拉早年就放弃的换电技术当核心竞争力，关键的三电技术全部是拿来主义，靠彩电，冰箱，大沙发就自己定位成高端豪华品牌，整天拿奔驰，宝马说事，所谓的新平台无非就是外观，装饰，软件升级而已，这不是骗子是什么？现在消费者可选的产品太多，也没那么好骗了，慰来没有未来，死路一条！","listText":"无论是腾讯等一众股权投资人，还是换电站的投资人，必定的结果就是血本无归！拿着特斯拉早年就放弃的换电技术当核心竞争力，关键的三电技术全部是拿来主义，靠彩电，冰箱，大沙发就自己定位成高端豪华品牌，整天拿奔驰，宝马说事，所谓的新平台无非就是外观，装饰，软件升级而已，这不是骗子是什么？现在消费者可选的产品太多，也没那么好骗了，慰来没有未来，死路一条！","text":"无论是腾讯等一众股权投资人，还是换电站的投资人，必定的结果就是血本无归！拿着特斯拉早年就放弃的换电技术当核心竞争力，关键的三电技术全部是拿来主义，靠彩电，冰箱，大沙发就自己定位成高端豪华品牌，整天拿奔驰，宝马说事，所谓的新平台无非就是外观，装饰，软件升级而已，这不是骗子是什么？现在消费者可选的产品太多，也没那么好骗了，慰来没有未来，死路一条！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/656006627","repostId":2332818044,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.2","shortVersion":"4.29.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2332818044"}