美联储降息一定让市场狂欢？这一次可能不一样

金十数据2023-04-17

市场仍然坚信美联储年底前会降息，这对美股而言一定是好消息吗？盈利增长乏力和高估值，可能制约股票在利率达到峰值后的上涨势头。历史上，美联储完成加息后，股票都会出现反弹。但一些投资者和分析师警告，这次市场可能不会走同样的剧本。首席美国股票策略师David Kostin领导的高盛团队指出，1982年以来，联邦基金利率达到峰值后的12个月内，标普500指数平均回报率为19%。高盛研究了六个美联储紧缩周期，...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

没有人比我更懂韭菜
2023-04-17
没有人比我更懂韭菜
这次真的不一样....噢……这次还一样
Pungi
2023-04-17
Pungi
把投资者改成分析师更贴切

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2328479764?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f38fb3d2af8e3617b1655ba85ba76c","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2023-04-17 11:30","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2328479764","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"美联储降息一定让市场狂欢？这一次可能不一样","media":"金十数据","content":"<div>\n<p>市场仍然坚信美联储年底前会降息，这对美股而言一定是好消息吗？盈利增长乏力和高估值，可能制约股票在利率达到峰值后的上涨势头。历史上，美联储完成加息后，股票都会出现反弹。但一些投资者和分析师警告，这次市场可能不会走同样的剧本。首席美国股票策略师David Kostin领导的高盛团队指出，1982年以来，联邦基金利率达到峰值后的12个月内，标普500指数平均回报率为19%。高盛研究了六个美联储紧缩周期，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=110470&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"xnew_highlight","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美联储降息一定让市场狂欢？这一次可能不一样</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美联储降息一定让市场狂欢？这一次可能不一样\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-04-17 11:30 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=110470&type=news&data_type=0><strong>金十数据</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>市场仍然坚信美联储年底前会降息，这对美股而言一定是好消息吗？盈利增长乏力和高估值，可能制约股票在利率达到峰值后的上涨势头。历史上，美联储完成加息后，股票都会出现反弹。但一些投资者和分析师警告，这次市场可能不会走同样的剧本。首席美国股票策略师David Kostin领导的高盛团队指出，1982年以来，联邦基金利率达到峰值后的12个月内，标普500指数平均回报率为19%。高盛研究了六个美联储紧缩周期，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=110470&type=news&data_type=0\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"DXD","symbol_name":"道指两倍做空ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://xnews.jin10.com/webapp/details.html?id=110470&type=news&data_type=0","article_id":"2328479764","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1f38fb3d2af8e3617b1655ba85ba76c"],"rights":null,"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2328479764","pubTimestamp":1681702257,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"xnew_highlight","name":"金十要闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"市场仍然坚信美联储年底前会降息，这对美股而言一定是好消息吗？","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"jin10.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","SH":"标普500反向ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares",".DJI":"道琼斯","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BK4504":"桥水持仓","OEX":"标普100","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF"},"translate_title":"The Fed's interest rate cut must make the market revel? This time it may be different","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cf2f50aa1dc439f79fb439ba7146759d","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"IVV":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6},"content_text":"市场仍然坚信美联储年底前会降息，这对美股而言一定是好消息吗？盈利增长乏力和高估值，可能制约股票在利率达到峰值后的上涨势头。历史上，美联储完成加息后，股票都会出现反弹。但一些投资者和分析师警告，这次市场可能不会走同样的剧本。首席美国股票策略师David Kostin领导的高盛团队指出，1982年以来，联邦基金利率达到峰值后的12个月内，标普500指数平均回报率为19%。高盛研究了六个美联储紧缩周期，发现只有一个周期结束后股市没涨。然而，高盛对美联储本轮完成加息后股市的反弹持怀疑态度。多数投资者认为，美联储可能在今年某个时候完成加息。标普500指数成分股公司Q1利润料将下降，或创2020年第二季度以来最大降幅，股价相对高估。标普500指数未来12个月远期市盈率为18倍，高盛的数据显示，这在过去40年的估值中位列第81个百分位。Hirtle Callaghan & Co.的副首席投资官Brad Conger说：“当前股市情绪非常乐观，我认为这是个错误。”Conger的公司专注于投资医疗保健、软件和支付处理等行业的公司，即使美国经济如Conger预期在今年末大幅降温，它们也有持续增利的能力。他说：“经济衰退对企业盈利的影响不言而喻。”目前为止，市场似乎已经摆脱潜在经济衰退的影响。标普500指数今年上涨7.8%，而道指上涨2.2%，纳指大涨16%。本周美国银行、Netflix和联合航空控股公司等公司将公布财报，另外还有成屋销售和制造业活动的最新数据。目前就业市场强劲是许多投资者保持乐观的重要原因。美联储去年开始加息时，许多人担心就业增长将遭重创。美国劳工部本月初的数据显示，3月，美国雇主新增招聘23.6万人，这是两年多来最小增幅，但仍高于疫情前的水平。ClearBridge投资公司的董事兼投资策略师Jeff Schulze说：“明显没有衰退的迹象，我们正处于平稳期。”通胀也持续降温。两周前的数据显示，3月消费品和服务的通胀为近两年来最慢增速；批发通胀也有所缓解。然而，物价压力仍然远超美联储2%的目标，可能推动美联储继续加息并保持高位，持续时间比投资者目前预期的更久。上周五，美联储理事沃勒（Christopher Waller）继续“放鹰”：“通胀仍然太高，因此我的工作还没完成，美联储需要继续收紧货币政策。”通胀高企将限制企业未来几个季度的盈利，如果消费者不愿消费更贵的商品和服务，企业的盈利压力更大。高盛预计，标普500指数成分股公司盈利全年同比增幅将持平，远低于加息周期结束、没有经济衰退风险时9%的平均增长率。Schulze说：“一季度经济数据强劲，是推动市场走高的因素之一。但重点是，很多数据是滞后的，不能反映三到六个月后的情况。”一些投资者表示，面对诸多不确定性，如美联储何时完成加息、何时开始降息、经济是否衰退以及何时出现衰退，专心创建能应对各种结果的投资组合是不二之选。富国银行投资研究所总裁 Darrell Cronk认为：“投资者经常因为过度分析和过度预测市场周期（何时开始及结束）而犯错，或许做好配置比预测更重要。”","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":651888811,"gmtCreate":1681743932833,"gmtModify":1681743934781,"author":{"id":"3568099945700012","authorId":"3568099945700012","name":"没有人比我更懂韭菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15391474b6bf8712ad5c17ea6bad5690","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ae1f49570794979e009a5efdeb6f4789","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3568099945700012","idStr":"3568099945700012"},"htmlText":"这次真的不一样....噢……这次还一样","listText":"这次真的不一样....噢……这次还一样","text":"这次真的不一样....噢……这次还一样","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651888811","repostId":2328479764,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":651880256,"gmtCreate":1681743160876,"gmtModify":1681743162498,"author":{"id":"3481417518064215","authorId":"3481417518064215","name":"Pungi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e3dcb10ed436cf083313b9f3fc9f7f15","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3481417518064215","idStr":"3481417518064215"},"htmlText":"把投资者改成分析师更贴切","listText":"把投资者改成分析师更贴切","text":"把投资者改成分析师更贴切","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/651880256","repostId":2328479764,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.0","shortVersion":"4.29.0","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2328479764"}