徐高：硅谷银行冲击的实体余波！警惕美国房市风险

智通财经2023-04-05

提要硅谷银行倒闭带来的金融冲击虽然正在平息，事件在实体经济中造成的余波却才刚刚展开。以硅谷银行倒闭为标志，美国此轮货币紧缩将进入第二个阶段，从金融市场的流动性紧缩逐步转向实体经济的融资紧缩。2022年，随着美联储的加息缩表，美国金融市场出现了明显的流动性紧缩现象，各类金融资产价格都处在反常状态。金融市场的流动性紧缩终究要向实体经济传导。硅谷银行倒闭无疑会加速这一传导过程。在实体经济融资紧缩的过程中...

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Valley Bank)被美国联邦存款保险公司(FDIC)关闭，宣告破产。硅谷银行之所以会破产，当然跟美国2022年开始的激进加息有关，但更重要的原因则是硅谷银行自身经营犯了错误，没有有效规避利率上升带来的市场风险。因为问题主要出在硅谷银行自己身上，再加上美国政府及时有效的应对，硅谷银行倒闭没有演变成系统性金融危机。要跟踪美国金融市场的系统性风险度，TED利差和VIX波动率指数两个指标值得关注。TED利差是3月期欧洲美元利率(LIBOR)和3月期美国国债收益率之间的利差。TED利差越高，表明金融市场流动性越紧张，风险度越高。而VIX波动率指数则是用期权价格推算的，投资者对未来市场波动程度的预期。VIX波动率指数越高，表明投资者越恐慌。硅谷银行倒闭确实推升了TED利差和VIX指数。但在2005年以来的长周期数据中，硅谷银行倒闭带来的波动只是一个非常不起眼的小凸起，跟2020年3月美股因新冠疫情而数次熔断时不可同日而语，更与2008年次贷危机不是一回事。到2023年4月初，TED利差和VIX指数均已从3月中旬的高位回落，表明硅谷银行倒闭带给美国金融市场的冲击已经消退。(图表 1)硅谷银行倒闭带来的金融冲击虽然正在平息，事件在实体经济中产生的余波却才刚刚展开。以硅谷银行倒闭为标志，美国此轮货币紧缩将进入第二个阶段，金融市场流动性紧缩将逐步向实体经济融资紧缩传导。硅谷银行倒闭暴露出了美国金融机构的脆弱性。此事之后，美国金融机构向实体经济发放融资的意愿和能力都会明显下降。从2022年7月到硅谷银行倒闭之前，美联储在货币紧缩过程中，将自己的总资产缩减了约5700亿美元。但在硅谷银行倒闭之后仅仅两周时间里，美联储的资产负债表就扩张了3920亿美元。从数量上来看，美联储两周时间就把之前大半年缩表规模的七成给扩了回去。但仅看数量是误导的。硅谷银行倒闭之前的大半年中，美联储缩表的主要方式是卖出美国国债，尤其是中长期国债。硅谷银行倒闭之后的扩表，则几乎完全是通过发放短期贷款来完成的。在扩表的同时，美联储仍在继续卖出其手中的美国国债。硅谷银行事件并未改变美联储紧缩货币抑制通胀的政策导向，而只是给美联储流动性调控带来了短期扰动。而在硅谷银行事件之后，各家金融机构会更加注重自身的稳定性，并相应削减自身向实体经济投放的融资量。在硅谷银行倒闭之后的第二周，美国商业银行信贷(包括商业银行购买的证券)就创出了2009年以来的最大单周跌幅。硅谷银行倒闭带给各金融机构的不安全感，已经抑制了美国金融体系向实体经济的融资发放。未来，美国实体经济将会更明显地感受到融资紧缩的压力。(图表 2)2022年，随着美联储的加息缩表，美国金融市场出现了明显的流动性紧缩现象，各类金融资产价格处在反常状态。以美国10年期国债收益率为例。正常情况下，美国10年期国债收益率与经济周期正相关，经济景气高的时候收益率高、经济景气低的时候收益率低。但从2022年到现在，美国制造业采购经理人指数(PMI)持续下滑，美国10年期国债收益率却大幅上扬——二者之间长期存在的正相关关系变成了最近一年多的负相关关系。类似10年期国债收益率这样的反常现象，最近一年在美国各类资产价格上都能看到。这些反常的资产价格，反映出了货币收紧给市场带来的流动性紧缩效应。(图表 3)金融市场的流动性紧缩终究要向实体经济传导。硅谷银行倒闭无疑会加速这一传导过程。2022年，在美国各类金融资产价格因流动性紧缩而普遍反常的时候，美国银行信贷增长虽然也放缓，但同比增速仍然处在5%到10%的稳健区间。到2023年初，美国银行的房屋贷款增速甚至还处在次贷危机之后的最高水平，同比增速接近12%。但随着流动性紧缩加速向实体经济传导，美国实体经济将步入融资的冬季。(图表 4)在实体经济融资紧缩的过程中，美国房地产市场的风险值得关注。2022年1季度至今，美国房价同比涨幅已经从之前的半个世纪最高水平下降到目前的零增长附近。而在实体经济步入融资严冬的时候，目前仍快速增长的房屋贷款可能会受到明显冲击，从而进一步加大房价下跌的压力。从房屋贷款的坏账率、屋主的债务负担等指标来看，现在的美国房地产市场比次贷危机爆发之前要稳健很多。但尽管如此，也需要警惕地产行业局部性风险抬头和爆发的可能。(图表 5)随着硅谷银行倒闭令实体经济融资紧缩加剧，美国经济景气预计还会进一步下滑。虽然各方对美国2023年陷入衰退是早有预期，但仍有不少人认为这将只是一场温和的衰退。但是，目前美国正在经历几十年未见的激进货币紧缩，令美国各类金融资产价格处在几十年未见的反常状态。当货币紧缩效应向实体经济传导时，恐怕不能以过去几十年的常理来推断接下来的美国经济。在预判美国经济前景时，投资者有必要更为谨慎一些。而随着美国实体经济融资紧缩的加速到来，美国长期利率应该会逐步下行。简单地说，实体经济是货币的需求方，中央银行是货币的供给方，利率作为货币的价格，为货币的供给和需求共同决定。在过去一年中，美联储激进的货币紧缩压低了货币供给，但实体经济对货币的需求仍然旺盛(表现为较快增长的银行信贷)，这就让利率大幅攀升。但在硅谷银行倒闭之后，实体经济对货币的需求将会逐步走低。这样一来，就算美联储继续大幅紧缩货币，利率也会因为实体经济货币需求的降低而走低。再加上美联储的货币紧缩力度也很可能在硅谷银行倒闭之后降低，美国长期利率下降的趋势就更加明显了。对中国经济而言，美国经济景气的下滑将给我国出口带来压力，而美国长期利率走低则会带动美元走弱，从而减轻人民币的贬值压力。当硅谷银行倒闭在美国实体经济掀起余波的时候，我国更需要通过刺激国内需求来站稳脚跟。(完)本文来源于微信公众号“徐高经济观察”，作者为中银证券首席经济学家徐高，原标题为《硅谷银行冲击的实体余波》；智通财经编辑：文文。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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