东北证券：地产行业进入新发展模式优质房企PE可对标稳定发展期的底线估值水平

智通财经2023-03-23

智通财经APP获悉，东北证券发布研究报告称，近期证监会提出探索建立具有中国特色的估值体系，过去房企普遍采用传统NAV进行估值，同时PE、PB估值中枢不断下移，站在新时代，从股价/每股NAV和股价/每股DDM两个指标来看央国企投资安全边际较高，建议关注保利发展(600048.SH)、越秀地产(00123)、华发股份(600325.SH)等。销售保持稳健、营运资本和长期资本的投入相对较少的房企更能...

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PE, a high-quality housing enterprise, can benchmark the bottom line valuation level during the stable development period","themeId":null,"isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":null,"symbols_score_info":{"000686":1,"PE":1},"content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，东北证券发布研究报告称，近期证监会提出探索建立具有中国特色的估值体系，过去房企普遍采用传统NAV进行估值，同时PE、PB估值中枢不断下移，站在新时代，从股价/每股NAV和股价/每股DDM两个指标来看央国企投资安全边际较高，建议关注保利发展(600048.SH)、越秀地产(00123)、华发股份(600325.SH)等。销售保持稳健、营运资本和长期资本的投入相对较少的房企更能估值溢价，建议关注保利发展、万科A(000002.SZ)、金地集团(600383.SH)、华润置地(01109)等。▍东北证券主要观点如下：NAV法从项目未来创造现金流或净利润角度对房企进行估值。由于原始NAV法及通过单个项目进行计算的NAV法所涉及假设过多，主观性较强，通过将房企NAV分为归母净资产、并表已售未结利润、并表未售未结利润和非并表未结利润四个部分，可得简化NAV。股价/每股NAV可用于衡量公司的投资价值：选取的16家房企中央企、地方国企、混合制房企、民企的股价/每股NAV均值分别为47%、45%、44%、45%。DDM法是从房企未来发放现金股利的角度进行估值。DDM法要求房企分红比例和现金股利增长率相对稳定，测算结果相对保守，更适合中小型投资者使用。选取的16家房企中央企、地方国企、混合制房企、民企的股价/每股DDM均值分别为120%、77%、101%和126%。对于股息率较高、股价波动较小的房企而言，股价/每股DDM比值往往较小，这一指标小于1的个股具有较强的投资安全边际。FCFF法聚焦房企的经营性活动和自由现金流，未来利润稳定增长、营运资本和长期资本追加投入较少的房企应当享受估值溢价。利润稳定增长需要房企连续保持适当强度的拿地。营运资本较少追加需要房企保持尽可能快周转。长期资本较少追加要求房企或专注于开发主业，或快速完成规模转型布局而减少对投资性房地产、长期股权投资等投资。优质房企PE可对标稳定发展期房企的底线估值水平，即PE为11.9倍。通过建立FCFF和PE的财务联系，在ROE=10%、=8%、=5%、T=25%、现金流经营利润比=70%、g=2%、权益占比=100%、杠杆率=0的假设下，稳定增长期房企底线PE为11.9倍，对应PB为1.19倍，杠杆率对估值影响非常显著。当下行业经历了严酷的供给侧改革，随着行业进入新发展模式，优质房企PE可对标稳定发展期房企的底线估值水平。风险提示：估值假设存在误差，购房信心恢复不及预期。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[],"isCommentEnd":true,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.28.1","shortVersion":"4.28.1","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2321949690"}

东北证券：地产行业进入新发展模式 优质房企PE可对标稳定发展期的底线估值水平

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东北证券：地产行业进入新发展模式优质房企PE可对标稳定发展期的底线估值水平