孤胆李彦宏：虽千万人吾往矣

证券之星2023-03-17

讲$ 百度集团-SW (HK|09888)$百度之前，先来回顾一个大部分人并不算不陌生的故事。《斯巴达300勇士》描述了人类史上最残酷的战争之一——温泉关之战。公元前480年，波斯国王薛西斯一世亲率30万大军出征希腊。而当时的希腊仍是城邦制，为抵御入侵，集结一支联军。两军对垒的前线正是温泉关，由斯巴达城的国王列奥尼达率领本邦300勇士和4000多联军镇守。但由于叛徒的出卖，让波斯大军形成了合围之势...

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flyone
2023-03-17
flyone
看好百度，看好文心一言

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(HK|09888)$百度之前，先来回顾一个大部分人并不算不陌生的故事。《斯巴达300勇士》描述了人类史上最残酷的战争之一——温泉关之战。公元前480年，波斯国王薛西斯一世亲率30万大军出征希腊。而当时的希腊仍是城邦制，为抵御入侵，集结一支联军。两军对垒的前线正是温泉关，由斯巴达城的国王列奥尼达率领本邦300勇士和4000多联军镇守。但由于叛徒的出卖，让波斯大军形成了合围之势，全军覆没近在眼前。为了保存实力，列奥尼达让联军先行撤退，自己则和300勇士死守温泉关。看过电影的人都知道，战役惨烈之极。最终的结果是，列奥尼达和300勇士在数十万的敌军中，斩杀20000多士兵。列奥尼达：虽千万人吾往矣，像极了此刻的百度和李彦宏。试问，谁不知道对手的强大？谁不知道上山路的曲折？谁不知道中美AI尚有差距？落后，难道就该沉默，又或者是撤退吗？显然不是。每次百度召开重要发布会，嘲笑百度，找李彦宏的花边成了一种政治正确。昨天的发布会举办地点在后厂村百度科技园5号楼的门口，场地不大，应邀到场的观众不算很多。发布会2点开始，李彦宏几乎是准时亮相在现场观众和镜头前。现在的互联网大厂，一把手工程几乎很少了，足见李彦宏本人对文心一言的重视。照理说，这样的场面对李彦宏来说应该手拿把掐、应付自如，但令人意外的是，李彦宏在会上表现出了些许紧张，颤音频频出现、甚至还出现了卡壳。其实，不难理解，就在昨天OpenAI发布了ChatGPT-4，据实测之后，体验感又比上一版本进步了一大截。早在数月前，百度就确定了这场发布会的时间，业内尚不清楚百度是否知晓OpenAI会先于百度一天发布ChatGPT-4。但相隔不到24小时的发布时间，也让这两座东西方的AI大厂站到了同一座八角笼中。胜负几何，结果当然是明确的。圈内不少人都知道，百度的文心一言实际上对标的是OpenAI在去年11月底发布的ChatGPT 3.5版本。李彦宏也在发布会上直言：对标ChatGPT甚至GPT-4，门槛是非常高的。但即便如此，百度仍然是全球第一个竖起对标ChatGPT旗帜的企业。发布之后，对百度和李彦宏调侃的声音盖过了文心一言本身。实际上，当冷静下来再来看这场发布会上略显紧张的李彦宏和顽强先行的百度，他们是值得掌声和肯定的。发展AI、发布文心一言，是百度的未来，也是中国技术鏖战西方的一把必持的从戎之剑。纵观过去数年，芯片卡喉一直是中国企业的桎梏。就拿这次的发布会来讲，有消息传出，为了跟上文心一言的算力，百度甚至将稀缺的英伟达A100芯片借调过来。在芯片技术上，英伟达GPU、谷歌TPU仍然掌握着绝对的主动权。除了芯片，在深度学习领域，除了百度的飞桨，其它的主流深度学习开源框架均来自于美国。同时，苹果、IBM、微软、谷歌、Meta、亚马逊等超一线巨头厂商都拥有极强的基础实力。据最新的全球市值排名数据显示，苹果、微软、谷歌、亚马逊位列前四，市值分别徘徊在2万亿美元、1.7万亿美元、1.15万亿美元、9000亿美元。OpenAI背后的金主正是微软和特斯拉。除了OpenAI，其余两家全球顶尖实验室分别是DeepMind和FAIR。DeepMind最出名的产品是AlphaGo，打败人类围棋巅峰的 机器人 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