苹果净现金头寸岌岌可危，未来股价或回调？

金十数据2023-03-01

过去十年，苹果一直通过股息分红和股票回购来回馈股东。自2012年以来，该公司在股息和回购方面的支出高达7150亿美元。目前，苹果每年将近1100亿美元用于股票回购和分红，速度惊人，对净现金状况产生了负面影响。苹果拥有490亿美元的净现金，低于2018财年的1230亿美元。在未来几个季度，苹果极有可能放慢回购步伐，保留部分净现金用于缓冲。苹果正在投资初始阶段需要大量资金的服务，其中TV+最重要，其...

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Ivan008
2023-03-02
Ivan008
小节里面是5万亿人民币吧，不是美元吧

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Will the stock price be adjusted back in the future?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e44fca7f34965ca9bb9a5c48e9244252","symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":1},"content_text":"过去十年，苹果一直通过股息分红和股票回购来回馈股东。自2012年以来，该公司在股息和回购方面的支出高达7150亿美元。目前，苹果每年将近1100亿美元用于股票回购和分红，速度惊人，对净现金状况产生了负面影响。苹果拥有490亿美元的净现金，低于2018财年的1230亿美元。在未来几个季度，苹果极有可能放慢回购步伐，保留部分净现金用于缓冲。苹果正在投资初始阶段需要大量资金的服务，其中TV+最重要，其竞争对手为Netflix（NFLX）、迪士尼（DIS）、亚马逊（AMZN）等，这些同行每年在内容方面的投资达数百亿美元。为了提供高质量服务，苹果需要加大对TV+的投资，这将进一步侵蚀现金流，保持高速股票回购的能力减弱。未来几个季度，回购放缓步伐加快会成为苹果股票的逆风。净现金头寸下降苹果管理层已经打算通过回购实现“现金中性 ”。该公司目前有490亿美元的净现金，每年用于回购和分红的费用接近1100亿美元。受疫情和5G苹果手机的推动，自由现金流一直相当强劲。但苹果不太可能长期保持这样的股东回报水平。苹果过去几年的净现金头寸（来源：苹果公司数据）过去几年，通过股票回购，苹果的流通股数量下降了40%，对每股收益产生了积极影响。每股收益的快速增长也有助于提高估值倍数，推高股价。股票回购与每股收益过去的几年里，苹果在回购方面的投资超过了5万亿美元，使流通股数量从260亿减少到160亿，相当于下降了40%。单独来看，过去十年里，回购使每股收益增长了66%，即每年增加5.2%。回购的积极影响无疑帮助该公司扛过了过去几年的几场风暴。苹果股价、净利润、营收与流通股数走势（来源：YCharts）由于估值倍数提高，流通股数量减少，苹果股价增速比净现金增速快。回购的未来净现金头寸的减少将迫使管理层控制回购的数量与速度。然而，苹果的新服务对现金需求增加，所以可能会对回购造成更大的影响。苹果正试图提高其视频内容质量，与视频流媒体业务巨头竞争，而Netflix、亚马逊、迪斯尼等流媒体同行拥有庞大的预算。2022年，Netflix和亚马逊在流媒体上的支出接近170亿美元。迪士尼也正斥巨资于此业务，这一赛道上还有好些大公司。如果苹果想获得并留住用户，就需要加大内容预算。理想情况下，苹果未来几年至少需要150亿美元的年度预算来建立一个强大的内容库，相当于其净利润的20%。另一方面，由于许多用户狂刷TV+上的限时免费内容并取消订阅，TV+的订阅收入在初始阶段会比较低。苹果TV+的用户流失率比其他同行高得多（来源：Antenna）苹果对TV+的投资将对自由现金流不利。面对净现金头寸和自由现金流的下降，管理层将不得不放慢回购的步伐。对股票的影响如前文所述，苹果的股票回购使其每股收益每年增长5.2%。如果苹果控制回购速度，对股票的利好影响也会相应减少。与其他大型科技同行相比，苹果股价的估值倍数已经很高。该公司最近一个季度的营收和净利润也大幅下降。这些因素叠加起来，会给股价带来巨大的负面影响，未来几个季度可能出现修正。苹果与Meta和谷歌的估值倍数和营收增速对比（来源：YCharts）苹果的长期投资者应该密切关注回购步伐可能放缓带来的影响。考虑到苹果净现金头寸下降、因投资TV+和其他服务导致自由现金流减少等因素，每股收益增长和回购未来将发生巨大变化。小结过去十年里，苹果在回购方面的投资超过5万亿美元，使流通股数量减少了40%，每股收益每年提高5.2%。未来，由于苹果净现金流状况不佳，股票回购带来的利好可能会消失。苹果目前的净现金不足500亿美元，而且流媒体业务的发展需要大量投资。苹果的市盈率倍数高于其他科技同行，但其服务和可穿戴设备等重要领域的进展却在放缓。管理层应该增加对新产品和服务的投资，以重新促进增长。但这样一来，可用于股票回购的资金就会减少。未来所有每股收益和股价估值模型都应纳入这一趋势带来的影响，并考虑苹果股票回调的可能性。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":null,"is_publish_highlight":null,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":624714544,"gmtCreate":1677713011588,"gmtModify":1677720656700,"author":{"id":"52994815454228","authorId":"52994815454228","name":"Ivan008","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cffd4bbe82688eacda133bf7e126c95c","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"小节里面是5万亿人民币吧，不是美元吧","listText":"小节里面是5万亿人民币吧，不是美元吧","text":"小节里面是5万亿人民币吧，不是美元吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624714544","repostId":2316646476,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.22.4","shortVersion":"4.22.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2316646476"}