小摩：2023年市场最大风险是经济不衰退

智通财经网2023-02-01

小摩策略师Mike Bell表示，目前市场面临的最大威胁是，如果经济衰退没有成为现实，将迫使美联储继续保持鹰派立场，这将迫使美联储加息幅度超过预期以遏制通胀。如果美联储不能像市场预期的那样降息，股市和债市都会下跌。自去年3月以来，美联储一直在积极加息，以遏制通胀。一系列经济数据表明，物价正在降温，但由于紧缩的货币政策导致经济放缓，市场正在为衰退做准备。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数过去一个月分别上涨...

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精彩评论

赵赵0429
2023-02-01
赵赵0429
学习了
荷马先生
2023-02-01
荷马先生
年初也是你们说衰退的风险，把市场吓得屁滚尿流，现在又想这样做空赚钱，乱中获利，左右都是你们说的，脑子神经混乱
- 大王834111:
  不错
- dingdibg:
  感谢分享
- 云中梧桐:
  [微笑]

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Bell表示，目前市场面临的最大威胁是，如果经济衰退没有成为现实，将迫使美联储继续保持鹰派立场，这将迫使美联储加息幅度超过预期以遏制通胀。如果美联储不能像市场预期的那样降息，股市和债市都会下跌。自去年3月以来，美联储一直在积极加息，以遏制通胀。一系列经济数据表明，物价正在降温，但由于紧缩的货币政策导致经济放缓，市场正在为衰退做准备。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数过去一个月分别上涨近6%和11%，因为华尔街预计美联储将扭转为应对经济低迷而采取的紧缩政策。但如果美国经济仍未衰退，工资增长保持在高位，那么美联储将不会像预期的那样降息，而是不得不在今年下半年恢复加息，加息幅度将高于华尔街目前的预期。但Bell表示，小摩基本预测2023年将出现经济衰退，这将缓和工资压力，那么美联储将在2024年降息。“我最乐观的猜测是，美联储将在2024年底前将利率降至2.5%左右”。美联储为期两天的政策会议将于本周三结束，预计加息幅度将是近一年来最小的一次。本次预计加息25个基点，今年晚些时候将再加息25个基点，市场普遍预计这将使美联储利率升至4.75%-5.00%。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":622107778,"gmtCreate":1675257444994,"gmtModify":1675257447050,"author":{"id":"3433235394742206","authorId":"3433235394742206","name":"赵赵0429","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97644f09850d43fe964601e9f24ebc1d","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3433235394742206","authorIdStr":"3433235394742206"},"htmlText":"学习了","listText":"学习了","text":"学习了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622107778","repostId":2308081283,"repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2308081283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1675246269,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2308081283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-01 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/869739.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小摩策略师Mike Bell表示，目前市场面临的最大威胁是，如果经济衰退没有成为现实，将迫使美联储继续保持鹰派立场，这将迫使美联储加息幅度超过预期以遏制通胀。如果美联储不能像市场预期的那样降息，股市和债市都会下跌。自去年3月以来，美联储一直在积极加息，以遏制通胀。一系列经济数据表明，物价正在降温，但由于紧缩的货币政策导致经济放缓，市场正在为衰退做准备。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数过去一个月分别上涨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/869739.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c9defb5a6364fafa902e502b1d3974","relate_stocks":{"IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME 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Bell表示，目前市场面临的最大威胁是，如果经济衰退没有成为现实，将迫使美联储继续保持鹰派立场，这将迫使美联储加息幅度超过预期以遏制通胀。如果美联储不能像市场预期的那样降息，股市和债市都会下跌。自去年3月以来，美联储一直在积极加息，以遏制通胀。一系列经济数据表明，物价正在降温，但由于紧缩的货币政策导致经济放缓，市场正在为衰退做准备。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数过去一个月分别上涨近6%和11%，因为华尔街预计美联储将扭转为应对经济低迷而采取的紧缩政策。但如果美国经济仍未衰退，工资增长保持在高位，那么美联储将不会像预期的那样降息，而是不得不在今年下半年恢复加息，加息幅度将高于华尔街目前的预期。但Bell表示，小摩基本预测2023年将出现经济衰退，这将缓和工资压力，那么美联储将在2024年降息。“我最乐观的猜测是，美联储将在2024年底前将利率降至2.5%左右”。美联储为期两天的政策会议将于本周三结束，预计加息幅度将是近一年来最小的一次。本次预计加息25个基点，今年晚些时候将再加息25个基点，市场普遍预计这将使美联储利率升至4.75%-5.00%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":622102476,"gmtCreate":1675254971195,"gmtModify":1675256375890,"author":{"id":"3570605047103152","authorId":"3570605047103152","name":"荷马先生","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d69283377af06639e7c3544aa273e68","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3570605047103152","authorIdStr":"3570605047103152"},"htmlText":"年初也是你们说衰退的风险，把市场吓得屁滚尿流，现在又想这样做空赚钱，乱中获利，左右都是你们说的，脑子神经混乱","listText":"年初也是你们说衰退的风险，把市场吓得屁滚尿流，现在又想这样做空赚钱，乱中获利，左右都是你们说的，脑子神经混乱","text":"年初也是你们说衰退的风险，把市场吓得屁滚尿流，现在又想这样做空赚钱，乱中获利，左右都是你们说的，脑子神经混乱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/622102476","repostId":2308081283,"repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2308081283","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1675246269,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2308081283?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-01 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href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/869739.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>小摩策略师Mike Bell表示，目前市场面临的最大威胁是，如果经济衰退没有成为现实，将迫使美联储继续保持鹰派立场，这将迫使美联储加息幅度超过预期以遏制通胀。如果美联储不能像市场预期的那样降息，股市和债市都会下跌。自去年3月以来，美联储一直在积极加息，以遏制通胀。一系列经济数据表明，物价正在降温，但由于紧缩的货币政策导致经济放缓，市场正在为衰退做准备。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数过去一个月分别上涨...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/869739.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11c9defb5a6364fafa902e502b1d3974","relate_stocks":{"IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU0256863811.USD":"ALLIANZ US EQUITY \"A\" INC","LU1496350171.SGD":"FRANKLIN DIVERSIFIED BALANCED \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1244550494.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET INCOME 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Bell表示，目前市场面临的最大威胁是，如果经济衰退没有成为现实，将迫使美联储继续保持鹰派立场，这将迫使美联储加息幅度超过预期以遏制通胀。如果美联储不能像市场预期的那样降息，股市和债市都会下跌。自去年3月以来，美联储一直在积极加息，以遏制通胀。一系列经济数据表明，物价正在降温，但由于紧缩的货币政策导致经济放缓，市场正在为衰退做准备。标普500指数和纳斯达克指数过去一个月分别上涨近6%和11%，因为华尔街预计美联储将扭转为应对经济低迷而采取的紧缩政策。但如果美国经济仍未衰退，工资增长保持在高位，那么美联储将不会像预期的那样降息，而是不得不在今年下半年恢复加息，加息幅度将高于华尔街目前的预期。但Bell表示，小摩基本预测2023年将出现经济衰退，这将缓和工资压力，那么美联储将在2024年降息。“我最乐观的猜测是，美联储将在2024年底前将利率降至2.5%左右”。美联储为期两天的政策会议将于本周三结束，预计加息幅度将是近一年来最小的一次。本次预计加息25个基点，今年晚些时候将再加息25个基点，市场普遍预计这将使美联储利率升至4.75%-5.00%。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7852902,"gmtCreate":1675258418398,"gmtModify":1675258431542,"authorId":4126081247367592,"author":{"id":4126081247367592,"idStr":"4126081247367592","authorId":4126081247367592,"name":"大王834111","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/68691e9564870606bffbc2b20524e550","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":622102476,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"不错","text":"不错","html":"不错"},{"id":7852868,"gmtCreate":1675257281132,"gmtModify":1675257294422,"authorId":3494827487225209,"author":{"id":3494827487225209,"idStr":"3494827487225209","authorId":3494827487225209,"name":"dingdibg","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7b17454644aee77f68e0e7df7924e3e","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":622102476,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"感谢分享","text":"感谢分享","html":"感谢分享"},{"id":7852861,"gmtCreate":1675256917348,"gmtModify":1675256930577,"authorId":3570100124824816,"author":{"id":3570100124824816,"idStr":"3570100124824816","authorId":3570100124824816,"name":"云中梧桐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d6b9da5ab9b1439a5866b2dda18152e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":622102476,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"}],"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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