蔚来死磕换电站，能换来什么

金融界网站2023-01-12

不久前的NIO DAY上，蔚来宣布将为旗下的每座第三代换电站配置双Orin-X芯片，引发业内好奇。　　蔚来第二代换电站　　根据英伟达此前公布的信息，单颗Orin-X的算力便可达到业内顶尖的254TOPS（万亿次每秒），这意味着蔚来三代换电站的总算力将高达504TOPS。　　同时，单颗Orin-X芯片目前的价格在400美元，双Orin-X芯片意味着约人民币5400元的成本。　　更直观...

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精彩评论

李小军
2023-01-17
李小军
石家庄到三亚一路换电过来玩，爽还不用花钱，其他车企谁能比
fincc
2023-01-17
fincc
换电就是典型的捡了芝麻丢了西瓜
我是静静
2023-01-17
我是静静
昨天刚从北京到湖北，1200多公里，换电体验很好，不过为了不下高速换电，一直走京港澳高速，稍微多了半小时多，比之前没有换电的电车只能在市内开强可不知道多少
- 就陪你去看海:
  [微笑]
- 爱传世界:
  好
- 笨孩破孩:
  感谢分享
- faysl:
  6
我真的不是股神
2023-01-16
我真的不是股神
得益于换电站，我13号从哈尔滨自驾回杭州，一天换电9次，行驶了1700+公里（总里程2600公里）。没有换电的话，光充电9次，就得消耗至少9个小时的时间。
- 我真的不是股神:
  你不会以为我是拖着换电站跑吧？跑到0公里的时候换个电？[笑哭][笑哭][笑哭]
- 理论狂:
  换电9次，可以理解 [流泪]
- fincc:
  你是高级黑吗 1700公里换电9次
- 偶尔怀旧:
  1
- HatterPorry:
  已阅

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\n　　所以在第三代换电站上，能够直观的看到单站的最大电池容量从二代的13个增加到21个，最大工位也拓展至3个，结合召唤换电与自主泊车功能，新站点的日服务次数将提升至408次。在遇到换电高峰时，3工位全部采用自动泊入时，站点本身的智能感知硬件，或将在最大程度上帮助车辆实现更优质的换电体验。 \n　　换电路线的多维生意经 \n　　但如果仅仅是为了更出色的换电体验，蔚来可能不需要对一座换电站加装算力堪比高阶智能驾驶汽车的芯片，市场人士猜测，这背后似乎还有更为深远的布局――电力交易。 \n　　在2022年的蔚来能源日（NIO POWER DAY）上，蔚来总裁秦力洪道出了蔚来布局换电的生意经。 \n　　众所周知，“换电”一直以来都是蔚来对外服务的最大标签。但这也是一把双刃剑。 \n　　去年，做空机构灰熊更是在对蔚来的报告中，将矛头直指换电，认为蔚来在换电布局上做出了虚假的利润与营收报表。 \n　　虽然这份做空报告的逻辑并不完善，但近年来在换电站、换电技术上的众多投入与研发，再加上换电对于备用电池的堆砌，蔚来的换电业务实则也是“拖累”蔚来盈利业绩的罪魁祸首之一。 \n　　秦力洪也曾声称，目前的蔚来换电仍处于布局阶段，短期内就是“赔钱赚吆喝”，并没有打算挣钱。 \n　　但是，针对上述质疑，秦力洪也给出了公开回应，“换电，只要蔚来这个品牌存在，就会永远干下去”。但以当前的换电站运营状况来看，在电芯原材料价格居高不下的电池市场挣不到钱；受制于电网统一管控的充电费用也难以贡献利润。 \n　　在蔚来看来，这个生意有一套更大的逻辑。 \n　　CIC灼识咨询合伙人赵晓马对观察者网补充了换电站的可能的盈利逻辑。 \n　　“换电站在本质上可以看作是一个储能站，如果将来有上千个站点，那么对于任何一个城市来说，这些换电站都将对城市的用电起到削峰平谷的作用。”他说，“所以当换电站形成一张网之后，统一的调控便能够为换电站带来不同于服务用户的收益。” \n　　按照蔚来的规划，借助已经研发预埋的技术，可以接入智能电网，参与电力交易来帮助不同地区电网进行动态调节，从中获取收益。 \n　　蔚来在年终报告中指出，2022年共有196座蔚来换电站参与电网调峰调频，另有575座换电站参与错峰充电，谷时用电由12%提升至20%。转移高峰期用电量达4.1亿瓦时。蔚来用实际行动，亲自验证了电网互动的可行性。 \n　　而去年的蔚来能源日上，蔚来描述了未来以盈利为目的运营换电模式的可行办法，其中包括可能会通过激励用户（给予一定补贴）在特定时段去充电，此外，蔚来换电站也会根据电网的运行情况对电池进行充电或反向放电。车主也可以用自己的车向电网反向放电来获取一定费用。 \n　　在最新的第三代换电站上，蔚来还引入了HPC双向大功率液冷电源模块。借助新的电源模块，换电站的充电功率达到62.5kW，整个换电站的充电效率达到98%左右。更重要的是，该模块能够实现“电网向换电站输电”以及“换电站向电网输电”两种模式。这也为换电站此后的接入电网奠定了技术基础。 \n　　在这个过程中，换电站作为一个边缘节点，在上面配置算力就显得很有意义。 \n　　去年与电网互动一同曝光的，还有蔚来针对换电站打造的智能运维系统。该系统本质上是一套智能物联网系统，能够将蔚来所有换电站、充电桩、电池，以及三方充电桩连在一起。 \n　　在功能性方面，除了培训新员工、远程运维之外，还能够对换电站的运行数据用深度学习算法进行检测。据蔚来透露，去年已经有100多座换电站实现无人值守。或许正是在不断提升的智能换电需求下，蔚来创始人李斌才在2022 NIO DAY上笑称“以后换电站也要拼算力了。” \n　　赵晓马认为，“蔚来目前给换电站增设大算力芯片，有可能是为了做边缘数据的处理，除了站点自身的运营外，甚至还包括换电站周围的环境感知等。蔚来，每一个站都将是一个智能节点，所以蔚来目前提前布局，或是为资本市场讲出更好的故事而内卷，但也许正如蔚来展望的一般，将目光放长至5-8年的话，这种布局的意义就展现出来了”。 \n　　不过，赵晓马同时也指出，针对换电站加装高算力芯片，并不能代表这就是换电站智能化提升的唯一解。尤其在行业还未展现出整体趋势之前，蔚来的节奏有点“卷”，可能过于超前。 \n　　以新能源本身的发展来看，国家补贴是推动技术发展的最大动力，无论是当年的光伏还是如今的氢能源，前期的大投入是产生规模效应的前提，换电和电力交易要真正实现最终盈利上，还要依托国家的支持和全行业的齐头并进。 \n　　2013年大肆鼓吹换电的特斯拉，在发布会上秀完自身的换电技术后不久便直接放弃了该模式。其背后的原因，正是因为换电站在美国加利福尼亚州推广时没能得到更多的政府支持。烧钱或许不可怕，但特斯拉CEO马斯克担心的是，烧钱背后是遥遥无期的变现空窗期。 \n　　必须坚持的唯一解？ \n　　按照当前的布局，换电并非蔚来唯一的补能体系，伴随全新换电站的发布，蔚来还推出了500kW超快充桩，进一步完善着在补能方面的建设。 \n　　只不过，回到秦力洪那个“品牌不倒，就要继续坚持换电”的发言上，蔚来的换电模式，已被塑造成了品牌形象与价值的重要构成。 \n　　无论盈利与否，换电站都不得不伴随着蔚来销量的提升不断进化。可以肯定的是，在蔚来不断迭代的换电站上，用户的使用体验注定会得到明显的提升，除了换电本身相较于充电更快的优势外，用户基数提升后的复杂换电场景，也将在换电体系整体的智能化提升后得到全面优化。 \n　　但对于蔚来而言，在缺乏自研电池的前提下，更大电池容量的换电站无疑将进一步加大建站成本。 \n　　同时，随着新品牌的导入，换电站在电池种类储备与适配技术的提升，也将成为蔚来的全新课题。 \n　　拓展至整个换电赛道，蔚来在换电路线上遭遇的种种困境，也是其他换电企业在未来发展上面临的共同阻碍。 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