失业率回升了，加息也到尾声了吗？

华尔街见闻2022-11-06

核心观点我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。事件11月4日，美国劳工统计局发布：10月份非农就业人数新增26.1万人，前值31.5万人；失业率反弹至3.7%，前值3.5%。正文10月失业率反弹至...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

密码的密
2022-11-06
密码的密
难
martingogogo
2022-11-06
martingogogo
已阅

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2281965917?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53d71c62ddd4425ec8578b3c9c99de3","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-11-06 08:29","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2281965917","market":"hk","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"失业率回升了，加息也到尾声了吗？","media":"华尔街见闻","content":"<div>\n<p>核心观点我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。事件11月4日，美国劳工统计局发布：10月份非农就业人数新增26.1万人，前值31.5万人；失业率反弹至3.7%，前值3.5%。正文10月失业率反弹至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674194\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"wallstreetcn_api","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>失业率回升了，加息也到尾声了吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n失业率回升了，加息也到尾声了吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-11-06 08:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674194><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>核心观点我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。事件11月4日，美国劳工统计局发布：10月份非农就业人数新增26.1万人，前值31.5万人；失业率反弹至3.7%，前值3.5%。正文10月失业率反弹至...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674194\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"SPXU","symbol_name":"三倍做空标普500ETF","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674194","article_id":"2281965917","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/d53d71c62ddd4425ec8578b3c9c99de3"],"rights":{"source":"wallstreetcn_api","url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3674194","rn_cache_url":null,"directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2281965917","pubTimestamp":1667694588,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"wallstreetcn_api","name":"华尔街见闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"招商证券指出，重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而处在加息尾声。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"wallstreetcn.com","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"161125":"标普500","513500":"标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","PSQ":"纳指反向ETF","SQQQ":"纳指三倍做空ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","QLD":"纳指两倍做多ETF","DXD":"道指两倍做空ETF","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯","SDOW":"道指三倍做空ETF-ProShares","DDM":"道指两倍做多ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4581":"高盛持仓","TQQQ":"纳指三倍做多ETF","QQQ":"纳指100ETF","DOG":"道指反向ETF","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","UDOW":"道指三倍做多ETF-ProShares","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","DJX":"1/100道琼斯","SH":"标普500反向ETF","QID":"纳指两倍做空ETF","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF"},"translate_title":"The unemployment rate has risen, and is the interest rate hike coming to an end?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1364ef6a40735a1beb0ab4facd90c65","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.85,"SPY":0.85,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"核心观点我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。事件11月4日，美国劳工统计局发布：10月份非农就业人数新增26.1万人，前值31.5万人；失业率反弹至3.7%，前值3.5%。正文10月失业率反弹至3.7%，幅度不低，因为同时劳动力参与率继续回落。1）10月劳动参与率小幅回落至62.2%（前值62.3%）。这意味着美国有就业意愿的人口比例下降，假如劳动参与率本月未发生变化，失业率的反弹幅度应超过3.7%。2）新增非农就业数据继续反映结构性差异，信息业时薪负增长、持续降温，休闲和酒店等个别服务业在高时薪增速的情况下新增就业数据偏弱，反映疫情后的劳动力供给紧张。时薪增速不弱、但尚未形成工资-通胀螺旋。非农时薪环比0.4%（前值0.4%），同比持续放缓至4.7%（前值5.0%），亚特兰大联储跳槽者工资增速（可以衡量劳动者通过跳槽来实现工资对通胀的追赶）和服务业工资增速均筑顶后加速回落，分别在7.9%和6.4%（前值8.4%和6.6%）。如果我们用岗位空缺率来衡量美国劳动力市场的需求侧温度，用失业人数/空缺岗位来衡量劳动力市场的紧张程度或者说结构性错配程度，且进一步衡量时薪增速同比对二者的敏感程度，如图1-2所示，可以得到以下结论：1）劳动力市场的需求侧在高位见顶、缓慢降温的方向上。2）失业人数/空缺岗位边际变化很低，几近走平，这很可能反映了劳动力市场的供需结构性错配问题持续未见改善，会导致从企业冻结缩减招聘岗位到成规模的裁员的时滞变长，进而岗位空缺率缩减先行于失业率的实质性反弹。3）疫情冲击后，时薪增速对劳动力市场紧张/结构性错配程度的敏感性指标，出现了波动中枢一次性抬升，以及阶段性稳定的迹象，这可能意味着新的均衡位置。相比之下，时薪增速对需求侧的敏感程度已回归到疫情前波动区间的偏高位置。因此，美联储收紧通过降温需求侧来稳定薪资增速，从而控制通胀的效果或者已经空间有限，加息毕竟无法解决劳动力市场的结构性错配问题，最终美联储可能必须要接受更高的通胀波动中枢。鲍威尔的鹰派表态叠加好坏互现的就业数据令市场对12月加息预期的分歧加大：1）数据公布后，12月加息50BP的概率小幅下行后反弹至56.8%，终端利率的较大概率场景仍在5.00%-5.25%。2）22Q4美国核心通胀预计呈波动筑顶的态势，难见明显回落，再加上中期选举前鲍威尔的偏鹰表态，美联储加息终端利率再次抬升，但失业率实质性反弹后，美元指数回落-1.5%至111附近，美债10年收益率小幅回落至4.14%，三大股指出现反弹。我们重申假若失业率连续3个月回升，美联储就有望结束加息的观点。目前失业率触底迹象明显，进而我们已经处在加息尾声。可见，美元已经处于顶部、美债配置价值凸显、美股亦接近左侧拐点。除非流动性危机爆发，否则海外因素对国内资产也不再形成明显约束。风险提示：美国经济与通胀超预期；美联储政策超预期。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":664966291,"gmtCreate":1667733917914,"gmtModify":1667733920402,"author":{"id":"4113481925000420","authorId":"4113481925000420","name":"密码的密","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89c0c43660deae59f5dfdc592861a720","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4113481925000420","authorIdStr":"4113481925000420"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;难","listText":"&nbsp;难","text":"难","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664966291","repostId":2281965917,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":664912496,"gmtCreate":1667696978416,"gmtModify":1667696980878,"author":{"id":"3572755522033854","authorId":"3572755522033854","name":"martingogogo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/324e80eb467177c9e935210d1bbfb556","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3572755522033854","authorIdStr":"3572755522033854"},"htmlText":"已阅","listText":"已阅","text":"已阅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/664912496","repostId":2281965917,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2281965917"}