先给胡萝卜，再给一大棒！美联储隔夜再现“市场操纵术”

华尔街见闻2022-11-03

先给胡萝卜，再给一大棒！美联储隔夜再现“市场操纵术”鲍威尔打了一场成功的“预期战”。昨晚，美联储在如期加息75个基点后，如何引导市场对其政策路径的后续预期，才是真正的挑战。而鲍威尔出色地完成了这一任务。在新闻发布会上，美联储主席鲍威尔先是称“最快将在12月放慢加息步伐”，此前的决策声明也暗示鸽派转向渐进，市场一度备受鼓舞——美股主要指数集体转涨，道指最高涨1%。但随后他又话锋一转，称利率峰值可能会...

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蓝白红黑的间条衫
2022-11-03
蓝白红黑的间条衫
毫无疑问华尔街见闻这个美股闹餐黑子总是把自己那副德行强加在别人身上，谁是市场经济谁是人为经济有脑子的人都懂……👽👽👽
- 虎牙熊猫_:
  h
- 广阔无疆:
  666
- wh快乐投资:
  [微笑]
- 主公:
  wall
- 壹碗:
  6

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needle）一词，意为使事物之间保持平衡和谐，进而指完成一项艰难任务。鲍威尔的艰难任务在于，尽管其有放缓加息的想法，但如何一边让金融市场做好适当的心理准备、应对加息速度放缓，同时又不被市场解读为政策立场的鸽派转向。这种转向可能会推动股市和债市再度反弹，缓解金融状况、使其再次放松，十分不利于美联储抑制通胀的努力。但总的来说，鲍威尔的预期管理可以说十分成功，在政策立场上取得了极为微妙的平衡，并将信息传达得极为清晰：他不仅暗示美联储可能放缓加息步伐——这是鸽派所希望的，还表示美联储利率峰值可能会高于政策制定者在9月份的预期——而这是鹰派所希望的。从8月的杰克逊霍尔会议开始，鲍威尔就已经清楚地意识到，作为管理金融市场价格的关键工具，他的任何言辞需要变得更加清晰和尖锐，在传达美联储的政策取向时要恰到好处。在那次关键的讲话中，他明确表示美联储打算“在一段时间内”保持紧缩政策。显然，鲍威尔吸取了此前的教训。今年3月到7月的每次新闻发布会上，他在传递有关经济的复杂信息时都摇摆不定、含糊不清，而看涨的交易员们只听到了他们想听到的内容，因此无意间引发了几次股市和债市的反弹。鉴于通胀居高不下，美联储仍不希望过早放松收紧政策。就目前而言，其需要让市场相信，金融环境需要保持紧缩或进一步收紧，这样才能战胜通胀，避免经济硬着陆。这一次，鲍威尔打了一场成功的“预期战”，使得鸽派人士对政策转向可能即将到来的希望破灭了。他昨晚的表现反映出，他已经学会了如何清晰地传达这一信息。而分析人士认为，随着美联储的行动所产生的影响更强烈、更直接，市场对其言论将愈发敏感，那么美联储需要在管理市场预期上更为微妙和平衡，为其付出更大努力。而稍有不慎所引发的市场波动，将是极为危险的。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":665423182,"gmtCreate":1667450464446,"gmtModify":1667450467156,"author":{"id":"3546057439648684","authorId":"3546057439648684","name":"蓝白红黑的间条衫","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/64ded5db61c69b7abc937bc62d16afdd","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"毫无疑问华尔街见闻这个美股闹餐黑子总是把自己那副德行强加在别人身上，谁是市场经济谁是人为经济有脑子的人都懂……👽👽👽","listText":"毫无疑问华尔街见闻这个美股闹餐黑子总是把自己那副德行强加在别人身上，谁是市场经济谁是人为经济有脑子的人都懂……👽👽👽","text":"毫无疑问华尔街见闻这个美股闹餐黑子总是把自己那副德行强加在别人身上，谁是市场经济谁是人为经济有脑子的人都懂……👽👽👽","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665423182","repostId":2280551828,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"comments":[{"id":7723110,"gmtCreate":1667452089424,"gmtModify":1667452103805,"authorId":8797871629438,"author":{"id":8797871629438,"authorId":8797871629438,"name":"虎牙熊猫_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/371a9aac15a91b50a4e6d9fd016f0e8f","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":665423182,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"h","text":"h","html":"h"},{"id":7723099,"gmtCreate":1667451883561,"gmtModify":1667451897414,"authorId":4118059872083280,"author":{"id":4118059872083280,"authorId":4118059872083280,"name":"广阔无疆","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":665423182,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"666","text":"666","html":"666"},{"id":7723093,"gmtCreate":1667451837485,"gmtModify":1667451851440,"authorId":3580371584638019,"author":{"id":3580371584638019,"authorId":3580371584638019,"name":"wh快乐投资","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4444e58dadffcb5b49b09f780a21eeb5","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":665423182,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"[微笑]","text":"[微笑]","html":"[微笑]"},{"id":7723079,"gmtCreate":1667451358272,"gmtModify":1667451371570,"authorId":92923282920240,"author":{"id":92923282920240,"authorId":92923282920240,"name":"主公","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/3ee1fc4127e04b2b8f5efb0a86c662fc","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":665423182,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"wall","text":"wall","html":"wall"},{"id":7723069,"gmtCreate":1667451127043,"gmtModify":1667451140029,"authorId":3561369134239825,"author":{"id":3561369134239825,"authorId":3561369134239825,"name":"壹碗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da77e12203e17ff537b16cc57580907e","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"individualDisplayBadges":[]},"repliedAuthorId":0,"objectId":665423182,"type":1,"supId":0,"prevId":0,"content":"<span 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