小摩CEO观点获IMF高管认同：标普500极有可能再跌20%

智通财经2022-10-13

智通财经APP获悉，国际货币基金组织(IMF)货币和资本市场主管托拜厄斯·阿德里安(Tobias Adrian)近日表示，投资者情绪的转变可能导致美国股市进一步下跌约20%。在华盛顿召开的国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团2022年年会上，阿德里安接受采访时表示，国际货币基金组织的研究发现，在当前低迷的市场中，不断上升的利率和未来盈利预期正在压低公司估值。他表示，到目前为止，市场情绪和风险溢价保持得“...

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超越小我
2022-10-13
超越小我
呵呵老夫上个月就说了标普500三个下跌目标 3150 2900 2600

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Adrian)近日表示，投资者情绪的转变可能导致美国股市进一步下跌约20%。在华盛顿召开的国际货币基金组织和世界银行集团2022年年会上，阿德里安接受采访时表示，国际货币基金组织的研究发现，在当前低迷的市场中，不断上升的利率和未来盈利预期正在压低公司估值。他表示，到目前为止，市场情绪和风险溢价保持得“相对良好”，这也导致了市场“有序收紧”。当被问及对摩根大通CEO杰米·戴蒙(Jamie Dimon)发表的标普500指数很容易再下跌20%这一言论有何评价时，阿德里安表示这“非常有可能实现”。今年迄今，该基准指数已下跌约25%。美联储9月份将联邦基金利率上调至3%-3.25%，为2008年初以来的最高水平，试图为40多年来最高的通胀率降温。美国最新的通货膨胀数据将于周四公布。阿德里安表示：“我认为，杰米·戴蒙所指的是，市场情绪也可能发生转变。当然，这将反馈到经济活动中。”“至于20%这一数字，当然是有可能的。这不是我们的基线预测，但这是有可能的。”阿德里安补充称，IMF没有具体的基准数据，但这金融状况将继续收紧，经济活动会放缓、市场继续继续承压。在周二，该机构发布了《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook)，预计明年全球经济增速将放缓至2.7%，较7月份的预测水平低0.2个百分点。报告还称，2023年全球数百万人可能将感受到经济衰退，全球约三分之一的经济体将经历经济收缩。阿德里安表示，尽管英国政府债券等领细分域近期出现波动，但IMF的基线预测仍然是，全球信贷市场仍保持“有序”，不会陷入“雷曼时刻”那样的全面危机。但他补充表示，下行风险仍然很大。“(金融稳定风险)非常高。只有在严重危机时期，比如2008年危机、2020年新冠病毒危机或欧元危机时，它们才会更高。”“所以说，是的，我们正处于一个压力非常非常大的时刻，我们确实希望能够避免发生系统性事件。但在这一点上，这种可能性肯定提高了。”他指出，与2008年金融危机期间相比，银行拥有更多的资本和流动性，而当时银行体系造成了大量的严峻市场压力。但他警告称，新兴市场的不利情况将是30%的银行资产资本不足，非银行金融体系的脆弱性可能会蔓延到银行体系。","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":666260639,"gmtCreate":1665671505122,"gmtModify":1665671643052,"author":{"id":"3550003982070902","authorId":"3550003982070902","name":"超越小我","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4c1493c344f52188522620590bf422","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3550003982070902","authorIdStr":"3550003982070902"},"htmlText":"呵呵 老夫上个月就说了 标普500三个下跌目标 3150 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