股债都小心翼翼，全球市场屏息以待今晚美国CPI

华尔街见闻2022-10-13

9月CPI超预期会如何？“感觉就像又要跌5%。”面对即将于今晚公布的美国9月CPI数据，市场一改8月数据公布前的“高调”姿态，投资者变得十分小心翼翼，在预计9月通胀或将持续升温之后，只愿在旁观望。因此，相比于当时美股连涨四日齐创两周新高的壮观景象，隔夜美股标普纳指六连跌至两年新低，道指抹去逾210点涨幅转跌，美债收益率小幅下行，超预期的美国9月PPI数据，支持加息至限制性利率的鹰派美联储会议纪要均...

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精彩评论

重庆小市民
2022-10-13
重庆小市民
。
MarcusDong
2022-10-13
MarcusDong
加1000个基点也不影响大A走大牛市
抢菜抢菜抢菜
2022-10-13
抢菜抢菜抢菜
个人预测8.3，拭目以待

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Swonk最新表示：核心通胀将会攀升至更高水平，因此从很多方面来看它仍是一个尚未见顶的通胀数据，供给侧冲击的风险仍然很大。美国银行首席美国经济学家Michael Gapen表示：核心通胀数据尚未下降反映出市场供不应求......这意味着美联储必须抑制比预期更多的需求。9月CPI超预期会如何？“感觉就像又要跌5%。”正如前文提及，在8月超预期CPI数据公布后，市场一片哀嚎，用惨淡行情予以回应。那么如果9月CPI再度超预期上行，市场又会作何反应？考虑到超预期CPI会导致市场对利率重新定价，股票估值将被拉低。对此摩根大通的交易部门表示，任何高于此前8月8.3%的数据都会给股市带来剧烈冲击。当时超预期8月CPI数据公布后，标普500指数重挫4.3%。摩根大通分析师Andrew Tyler团队在周一报告中写道：感觉就像又要跌5%。摩根大通Mike Feroli等经济学家预计，如果9月CPI数据处于8.1%至8.3%的区间之内，标普400指数将下跌1.5%至2%。美国银行Gapen提及：如果CPI数据走强，市场就会抛售，股市不会喜欢......即使CPI数据稍微走低，市场也会认为就业市场依旧强劲，美联储将加息75基点。美联储12月再度加息75基点“箭在弦上”？此次9月CPI将是11月FOMC会议之前最后一次通胀数据公布，虽然不会改变美联储在11月的政策路径（市场普遍预期加息75基点），但是可能会改变其在12月的货币政策方向。一旦9月CPI高于市场预期，叠加同样强于预期的就业市场状况，或将引发市场对美联储采取进一步加息的担忧，预计美联储可能会在12月加息75个基点。正如摩根大通Tyler在报告中表示，通胀走强将促使债券市场重新定价，从而增加12月再度大幅加息的可能性。华尔街见闻此前提及，野村美国经济研究团队已经将其对美联储利率峰值的预测上调至5.25%-5.50%：我们将利率峰值预测上调75个基点至5.25%-5.50%，现在预计今年11月和12月加息75个基点，随后在明年2月加息50个基点，3月加息25个基点。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":666677479,"gmtCreate":1665649876191,"gmtModify":1665649879065,"author":{"id":"3548982422913331","authorId":"3548982422913331","name":"重庆小市民","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03029d12634d7b5aee00d9418efd3207","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548982422913331","authorIdStr":"3548982422913331"},"htmlText":"。","listText":"。","text":"。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666677479","repostId":2275613530,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"EN"},{"id":666648599,"gmtCreate":1665644132011,"gmtModify":1665644133751,"author":{"id":"3546660966864880","authorId":"3546660966864880","name":"MarcusDong","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3546660966864880","authorIdStr":"3546660966864880"},"htmlText":"加1000个基点也不影响大A走大牛市","listText":"加1000个基点也不影响大A走大牛市","text":"加1000个基点也不影响大A走大牛市","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666648599","repostId":2275613530,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666648166,"gmtCreate":1665644032255,"gmtModify":1665644034899,"author":{"id":"4094264306111180","authorId":"4094264306111180","name":"抢菜抢菜抢菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88e7e981b45f31b1e854316995c1089","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094264306111180","authorIdStr":"4094264306111180"},"htmlText":"个人预测8.3，拭目以待","listText":"个人预测8.3，拭目以待","text":"个人预测8.3，拭目以待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666648166","repostId":2275613530,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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