“木头姐”公开致信美联储：应对通胀政策失误，恐将美国经济拖入通缩衰退

华尔街见闻2022-10-11

Wood在信中说，从大宗商品价格等领先指标来看，美国经济很可能陷入通缩衰退。她认为罪魁祸首就是在过去六个月里，美联储前所未有的13倍利率增长，到11月2日之后可能会增加至16倍。ARK投资管理公司的“木头姐”Cathie Wood于10月10日周一发表一封致美联储的公开信。在公开信中，Wood表示，美联储对通胀的强硬立场可能是错误的。Wood认为，美联储应该从商品价格中吸取教训，而不是查看前几个月...

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精彩评论

kaien
2022-10-12
kaien
傻白甜很懂投资，但不懂经济和政治。美国加息不是为了解决通胀，通胀跟加息有啥关系。美国加息只是为了收割世界而已。
兼听则明偏信则暗
2022-10-11
兼听则明偏信则暗
结构性通胀，很难用加息解决，取消对中国的贸易制裁，通胀自然解决了
KingSlayer
2022-10-11
KingSlayer
这正是美联储的目的啊，用衰退压制通胀
藥瀚
2022-10-11
藥瀚
美联储只关心美元霸权，像是美元指数和美债价格相关的标的！
风味发酵乳
2022-10-11
风味发酵乳
美联储就是想股票跌
看一眼
2022-10-11
看一眼
wood这次说对了

发表看法

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3672024><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Wood在信中说，从大宗商品价格等领先指标来看，美国经济很可能陷入通缩衰退。她认为罪魁祸首就是在过去六个月里，美联储前所未有的13倍利率增长，到11月2日之后可能会增加至16倍。ARK投资管理公司的“木头姐”Cathie Wood于10月10日周一发表一封致美联储的公开信。在公开信中，Wood表示，美联储对通胀的强硬立场可能是错误的。Wood认为，美联储应该从商品价格中吸取教训，而不是查看前几个月...</p>\n\n<a 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recession","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50fd308e8b99fffcd4ba75881bd9cb55","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"Wood在信中说，从大宗商品价格等领先指标来看，美国经济很可能陷入通缩衰退。她认为罪魁祸首就是在过去六个月里，美联储前所未有的13倍利率增长，到11月2日之后可能会增加至16倍。ARK投资管理公司的“木头姐”Cathie Wood于10月10日周一发表一封致美联储的公开信。在公开信中，Wood表示，美联储对通胀的强硬立场可能是错误的。Wood认为，美联储应该从商品价格中吸取教训，而不是查看前几个月的就业和物价指数，这种制定政策的方法意味着未来最大的经济风险是通缩，而不是通胀：在我们看来，美联储似乎专注于两个滞后指标——下游通胀和就业——这两个变量都发出了相互矛盾的信号，市场应该对美联储一致呼吁提高利率提出质疑。具体而言，当前美国居民消费价格指数（CPI）和个人消费支出价格指数（PCE）均呈现通胀高位运行。8月份美国整体CPI环比走高0.1%，同比上涨8.3%，而整体PCE则环比增长0.3%，同比增长6.2%。如果不包括食品和能源，这两个数据的读数都更高。就业方面，美国就业人数增长放缓但依然强劲，9月美国新增非农就业人数达26.3万个，失业率降至3.5%。但Wood表示，木材、铜等大宗价格不仅已经见顶，而且相比于去年同期出现下跌。大宗商品的价格通常被视作经济的领先指标。美联储已经连续三次加息75个基点，多数情况下是全票通过，市场预计11月初的议息会议上，美联储将第四次大幅加息，幅度仍可能高达75个基点。Wood在信中说：过去六个月中前所未有的13倍利率增长，到11月2日之后可能会增加至16倍，难道还没有震惊美国、震惊世界，并增加了通缩萧条的风险吗？对宏观经济来说，通货紧缩反映了需求的下降，并与经济急剧下滑有关。美联储并非唯一加息的央行，在9月，全球近40个央行加息，市场对美联储的激进加息在意料之中。然而，最近出现了批评美联储的声音，称美联储可能走得太远，有可能将美国乃至全球经济拉入不必要的衰退。Wood称：毫无疑问，食品和能源价格很重要，但我们认为美联储不应该加剧与地缘冲突造成的农产品和能源商品供应紧张带来的全球痛苦。她继续解释道：在供应链的下游，库存积压似乎压倒了制造商和零售商。在与供应链瓶颈作斗争一年多之后，即使是世界级的公司似乎也认为它们订购了过多的商品。面对个位数的销售增长，沃尔玛和塔吉特的库存在最近一个季度分别增长了25.5%和36.1%。耐克最近的季度业绩表明，库存失衡已经恶化。尽管销售额仅增长3.6%，但耐克的全球库存增加了44.2%。在北美和在途船舶上，其库存分别增加了64.8% 和85.0%！在汽车行业，以Manheim二手车价值指数衡量的二手车价格增速在2021年4月达到54.2%的同比峰值，并在2021年12月再次上涨至46.6%，但今年以来已经同比下降13.5%，当前的同比增速已经是-0.1%。面对大量库存，二手车经销商可能会降价来清理更多库存，这可能会将价格通胀推向负值。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":666144248,"gmtCreate":1665506447185,"gmtModify":1665508798392,"author":{"id":"3535986928833046","authorId":"3535986928833046","name":"kaien","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d54becb582945bb662f4fe589e9e045f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3535986928833046","authorIdStr":"3535986928833046"},"htmlText":"傻白甜很懂投资，但不懂经济和政治。美国加息不是为了解决通胀，通胀跟加息有啥关系。美国加息只是为了收割世界而已。","listText":"傻白甜很懂投资，但不懂经济和政治。美国加息不是为了解决通胀，通胀跟加息有啥关系。美国加息只是为了收割世界而已。","text":"傻白甜很懂投资，但不懂经济和政治。美国加息不是为了解决通胀，通胀跟加息有啥关系。美国加息只是为了收割世界而已。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666144248","repostId":2274459518,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666132601,"gmtCreate":1665476572503,"gmtModify":1665477112733,"author":{"id":"4128552061424752","authorId":"4128552061424752","name":"兼听则明 偏信则暗","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ae782172b5719696e60a216567fec7","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4128552061424752","authorIdStr":"4128552061424752"},"htmlText":"结构性通胀，很难用加息解决，取消对中国的贸易制裁，通胀自然解决了","listText":"结构性通胀，很难用加息解决，取消对中国的贸易制裁，通胀自然解决了","text":"结构性通胀，很难用加息解决，取消对中国的贸易制裁，通胀自然解决了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666132601","repostId":2274459518,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666138642,"gmtCreate":1665475661187,"gmtModify":1665475797747,"author":{"id":"3520563213995300","authorId":"3520563213995300","name":"KingSlayer","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3520563213995300","authorIdStr":"3520563213995300"},"htmlText":"这正是美联储的目的啊，用衰退压制通胀","listText":"这正是美联储的目的啊，用衰退压制通胀","text":"这正是美联储的目的啊，用衰退压制通胀","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666138642","repostId":2274459518,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666133224,"gmtCreate":1665474807668,"gmtModify":1665475855586,"author":{"id":"3529885058817190","authorId":"3529885058817190","name":"藥瀚","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b1e1625f113ae747649f2e22e71b5b","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3529885058817190","authorIdStr":"3529885058817190"},"htmlText":"美联储只关心美元霸权，像是美元指数和美债价格相关的标的！","listText":"美联储只关心美元霸权，像是美元指数和美债价格相关的标的！","text":"美联储只关心美元霸权，像是美元指数和美债价格相关的标的！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666133224","repostId":2274459518,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666130059,"gmtCreate":1665473258371,"gmtModify":1665473477225,"author":{"id":"3505871118570880","authorId":"3505871118570880","name":"风味发酵乳","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ede87eb77efab55dc2d31074e3b0b150","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3505871118570880","authorIdStr":"3505871118570880"},"htmlText":"美联储就是想股票跌","listText":"美联储就是想股票跌","text":"美联储就是想股票跌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666130059","repostId":2274459518,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666194889,"gmtCreate":1665472607641,"gmtModify":1665472608823,"author":{"id":"3473239093042706","authorId":"3473239093042706","name":"看一眼","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a84f5e344772736e621cec9cf6efdc2","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3473239093042706","authorIdStr":"3473239093042706"},"htmlText":"wood这次说对了","listText":"wood这次说对了","text":"wood这次说对了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666194889","repostId":2274459518,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":4,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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