另一场战争打响：OPEC+单挑整个西方！

华尔街见闻2022-10-08

在俄乌冲突愈演愈烈之际，另一场不见硝烟的战争正在石油市场打响。素来以毒舌著称的金融博客Zerohedge甚至将其称为：OPEC+单挑整个西方（以及美联储）之战。以沙特和俄罗斯为首的OPEC+周三宣布从11月起减产200万桶/日，创2020年欧美疫情爆发以来最大减产规模，不少分析直言年底前国际布伦特油价升上110美元，较周二收盘价大涨20%。白宫发布罕见的斥责声明，直言“美国总统拜登对OPEC+的...

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精彩评论

madhatter
2022-10-10
madhatter
愚不可及，沙特自身安全完全仰仗美国，和西方翻脸，空有石油当饭吃？一叶障目不见泰山
猛逃
2022-10-10
猛逃
上世纪的石油武器玩的更邪乎，也没见击夸谁的金融体系。拿个鸡毛当令箭的[抠鼻]
猛逃
2022-10-10
猛逃
学点历史：上世纪玩过的石油武器不稀奇，只能促使西方能源转型，更健康的发展..…
抢菜抢菜抢菜
2022-10-10
抢菜抢菜抢菜
对着干，没什么大不了的
Fred_6810
2022-10-10
Fred_6810
忘掉你的碳中和。一颗炸弹要产生多少二氧化碳？战争时期，还在讲碳中和，通胀2%，**一个！

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Bain便称，鉴于大幅减产背后“不寻常的市场背景”，说减产仅仅是因为平衡供求基本面等技术性原因，其实很难令人信服：“OPEC将全球经济前景的不确定性作为大幅减产的主要理由。然而当前全球石油库存处于历史低位，到目前为止，高油价也未能对需求造成实质性影响。华尔街本来就预计今年四季度石油市场小幅供不应求，（似乎都没有短期内大幅减产的必要性。）”荷兰合作银行的全球策略师Michael Every周五写道，沙特已经从困难时期帮助美国的摇摆生产国，转变为通过减产来保持高油价的生产国。这证明了美国的地缘政治和地缘经济错误，突显了多层次的国内能源政策失败，与此同时，OPEC+长期来说成为美国需要解决的地缘战略问题。他认为，美国政府应对OPEC+大幅减产的回应政策可能都较为无力且自相矛盾。例如，美国力图在短期内增加国内石油生产，但如果长期前景仍然是摒弃化石能源，私营领域将不会立刻作出反应。美国还可能施压能源公司缩小批发与零售汽油的差距，尽管这一差距已经很小了。还有人称，美国正在秘密洽谈放松对委内瑞拉制裁，使雪佛龙恢复在该国生产石油，或令该国石油出口在几个月内翻倍至90万桶/日。然而，且不论委内瑞拉因投资和维护匮乏可能没有迅速增产的能力，在没有太多石油收益的情况下，美国的外交威慑力或大幅下滑，颇为得不偿失。另一种观点则认为，OPEC+大幅减产令美联储抗击高通胀、又试图避免经济硬着陆的努力更为复杂和艰难。金融博客Zerohedge援引分析称：为了回应需求破坏，供给端自动减产受限，这令石油价格不断上涨，在此背景下，已走上货币政策收紧道路的美联储更不可能轻易鸽派转向。毋庸置疑，随着OPEC+与西方（和美联储）之间日益激烈的战争升级，西方可用的石油总量将下降、而非上升，在需求已经减少时，反而迫使美联储进一步加息，直到压垮金融市场。OPEC+不必打败整个西方，只要令其最弱的金融机构崩溃就会拖垮其余一切。届时，包括俄罗斯在内的全球大宗商品生产国将有效击败“世界前超级大国”美国。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":false,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":666966970,"gmtCreate":1665377868990,"gmtModify":1665378236857,"author":{"id":"3493842670456657","authorId":"3493842670456657","name":"madhatter","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0608ff027983d65930949408359fec","vip":1,"crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493842670456657","authorIdStr":"3493842670456657"},"htmlText":"愚不可及，沙特自身安全完全仰仗美国，和西方翻脸，空有石油当饭吃？一叶障目不见泰山","listText":"愚不可及，沙特自身安全完全仰仗美国，和西方翻脸，空有石油当饭吃？一叶障目不见泰山","text":"愚不可及，沙特自身安全完全仰仗美国，和西方翻脸，空有石油当饭吃？一叶障目不见泰山","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666966970","repostId":2273955543,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666961983,"gmtCreate":1665376737642,"gmtModify":1665376739641,"author":{"id":"3518527627041174","authorId":"3518527627041174","name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518527627041174","authorIdStr":"3518527627041174"},"htmlText":"上世纪的石油武器玩的更邪乎，也没见击夸谁的金融体系。拿个鸡毛当令箭的[抠鼻]&nbsp;","listText":"上世纪的石油武器玩的更邪乎，也没见击夸谁的金融体系。拿个鸡毛当令箭的[抠鼻]&nbsp;","text":"上世纪的石油武器玩的更邪乎，也没见击夸谁的金融体系。拿个鸡毛当令箭的[抠鼻]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666961983","repostId":2273955543,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666963693,"gmtCreate":1665376352613,"gmtModify":1665376355375,"author":{"id":"3518527627041174","authorId":"3518527627041174","name":"猛逃","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3518527627041174","authorIdStr":"3518527627041174"},"htmlText":"学点历史：上世纪玩过的石油武器不稀奇，只能促使西方能源转型，更健康的发展..…","listText":"学点历史：上世纪玩过的石油武器不稀奇，只能促使西方能源转型，更健康的发展..…","text":"学点历史：上世纪玩过的石油武器不稀奇，只能促使西方能源转型，更健康的发展..…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666963693","repostId":2273955543,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666969027,"gmtCreate":1665375426769,"gmtModify":1665375815155,"author":{"id":"4094264306111180","authorId":"4094264306111180","name":"抢菜抢菜抢菜","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d88e7e981b45f31b1e854316995c1089","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4094264306111180","authorIdStr":"4094264306111180"},"htmlText":"对着干，没什么大不了的","listText":"对着干，没什么大不了的","text":"对着干，没什么大不了的","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/666969027","repostId":2273955543,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":666960723,"gmtCreate":1665375390062,"gmtModify":1665375392993,"author":{"id":"3563140991934227","authorId":"3563140991934227","name":"Fred_6810","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fbe236f23155302a4dcecbf04d2e9040","vip":1,"crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3563140991934227","authorIdStr":"3563140991934227"},"htmlText":"忘掉你的碳中和。一颗炸弹要产生多少二氧化碳？ 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