11月继续75基点？华尔街加息预期爆棚

华尔街见闻2022-09-27

加息之后是降息。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。华尔街加息预期爆棚：瑞银“11月继续75基点”！野村“12月也加75”，峰值加到5.25-5.50%！华尔街纷纷开始押注，美联储将“鹰无止境”。根据美联储上周发布的经济预测摘要（SEP），大多数FOMC成员认为第四次75个基点的加息是适当的。市场...

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精彩评论

追风的咕咕
2022-09-27
追风的咕咕
看来机构买了不少put[汗颜]
海格微
2022-09-27
海格微
机构这样说，那就是差不多可以进场了
hala
2022-09-27
hala
让暴风雨来得更猛烈点
荷兰猪
2022-09-27
荷兰猪
机构都这么说，代表什么，懂得自然懂。

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Wall Street's interest rate hike is expected to 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looking indicator，追溯历史数据），过度依赖职位空缺率可能会导致美联储错过劳动力市场变动的重要转折点。野村的押注“加码”了上周，野村在FOMC会议前就预测联邦基金利率峰值将在明年上升至4.6%的水平，与联储官员的利率预期中值一致。而在上周五晚上，野村美国经济研究团队甚至将其对美联储利率峰值的预测上调至5.25%-5.50%。他们认为，越来越多的证据表明，短期中性利率在以下情况下已经上升：1）比预期更宽松的金融环境；2）有弹性的劳动力市场；3）仍然居高不下的通胀。这表明名义中性利率可能远高于2%-2.5%：因此，我们将利率峰值预测上调75个基点至5.25%-5.50%，现在预计今年11月和12月加息75个基点，随后在明年2月加息50个基点，3月加息25个基点。较高的中性利率意味着美联储当前的货币政策立场比野村之前预估的更为宽松，经济衰退推迟到2023年第一季度的风险更大。野村预计，2023年9月开始，美联储将以每次会议25个基点的初始速度降息；到2024年第二季度，降息速度将加快至每次会议50个基点。届时通胀反弹的风险降低，2024年底的政策利率将为1.125%，失业率峰值在6%左右。野村警告称，美国与世界其他地区的利差在不断扩大，美国实际利率和美元指数都升至多年来的高点。这种金融条件的收紧，将对风险资产造成严重打击。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":661745455,"gmtCreate":1664270448777,"gmtModify":1664270452209,"author":{"id":"3570894101421757","authorId":"3570894101421757","name":"追风的咕咕","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/425722afb00b393a2a2d67736e2b9606","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3570894101421757","authorIdStr":"3570894101421757"},"htmlText":"看来机构买了不少put[汗颜]&nbsp;","listText":"看来机构买了不少put[汗颜]&nbsp;","text":"看来机构买了不少put[汗颜]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661745455","repostId":2270299946,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":661759932,"gmtCreate":1664263263126,"gmtModify":1664263264528,"author":{"id":"3548442381649766","authorId":"3548442381649766","name":"海格微","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/627e959157d81f1d9d698bade03acc1d","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3548442381649766","authorIdStr":"3548442381649766"},"htmlText":"机构这样说，那就是差不多可以进场了","listText":"机构这样说，那就是差不多可以进场了","text":"机构这样说，那就是差不多可以进场了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661759932","repostId":2270299946,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":661727864,"gmtCreate":1664262760258,"gmtModify":1664262810338,"author":{"id":"3502622007622815","authorId":"3502622007622815","name":"hala","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b0b20edecc87853068e15b8689ea153b","vip":1,"crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3502622007622815","authorIdStr":"3502622007622815"},"htmlText":"让暴风雨来得更猛烈点","listText":"让暴风雨来得更猛烈点","text":"让暴风雨来得更猛烈点","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661727864","repostId":2270299946,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":661722686,"gmtCreate":1664261493445,"gmtModify":1664261496191,"author":{"id":"3525158002740343","authorId":"3525158002740343","name":"荷兰猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9bf507c9155eb149175d79776f6bdee","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3525158002740343","authorIdStr":"3525158002740343"},"htmlText":"机构都这么说，代表什么，懂得自然懂。","listText":"机构都这么说，代表什么，懂得自然懂。","text":"机构都这么说，代表什么，懂得自然懂。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/661722686","repostId":2270299946,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":14,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":6,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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