单车净利润6万，特斯拉凭什么？

华尔街见闻2022-08-24

规模效应、供应链降本、商业模式创新和技术创新是特斯拉持续降本提效、创造高毛利水平的关键因素。受益于弗里蒙特工厂和上海工厂产能不断扩张、全球交付量增加、领先的毛利率水平和服务和其他业务盈利能力增强等因素，特斯拉业绩和销量一路高歌猛进。自2019Q3以来，特斯拉已连续12个季度取得正向净利润，2022年一季度更是实现归母净利润55.77亿美元，超过2021年全年水平。特斯拉实现Model 3和 ...

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精彩评论

奥龙
2022-08-25
奥龙
不愧为未来世界第二大经济体
MG黄
2022-08-25
MG黄
强者的强不是说比你强一点点！学就完事了，别不服吧。人南非人走出来的，可以适当吹捧一下，没毛病。
方圆几十里
2022-08-25
方圆几十里
偷工减料说的挺清奇的
yfz摩诃无量
2022-08-25
yfz摩诃无量
太强了果然是未来苹果
蝎子摆尾
2022-08-24
蝎子摆尾
不花营销费用，怎么不提啊？
- 手机巴黎:
  比亚迪也没有营销费用啊！你自己看，为什么它卖这么贵？

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What makes Tesla?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/279e046e2de596a2bad9cec4a25415c6","symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1},"content_text":"规模效应、供应链降本、商业模式创新和技术创新是特斯拉持续降本提效、创造高毛利水平的关键因素。受益于弗里蒙特工厂和上海工厂产能不断扩张、全球交付量增加、领先的毛利率水平和服务和其他业务盈利能力增强等因素，特斯拉业绩和销量一路高歌猛进。自2019Q3以来，特斯拉已连续12个季度取得正向净利润，2022年一季度更是实现归母净利润55.77亿美元，超过2021年全年水平。特斯拉实现Model 3和 Model Y的全球交付量增加大幅改善现金流水平，截至2022二季度末，特斯拉现金和现金等价物累计达到183亿美元。此外，2022年上半年，特斯拉单车净利润超过1万美元。特斯拉何以实现超额利润？申万宏源分析师屠亦婷、刘洋和蒲梦洁表示，规模效应、供应链降本、商业模式创新和技术创新是特斯拉持续降本提效、创造高毛利水平的关键因素。 1．规模化生产摊薄固定成本车辆生产规模增加将摊薄固定成本，特斯拉毛利在大众车型的生产规模扩大后体现出更好的规模效应。以弗里蒙特工厂Model 3爬坡过程为例。2017三季度Model 3开始交付，但受生产效率和电池产能制约影响，Model 3爬坡进程不及预期。据特斯拉季报，2018年Q1，Model 3产线仍处于负毛利状态。2017Q3汽车业务整体毛利率（Non-GAAP，不含SBC和ZEV） 下降6.3pct至18.7%，Q4继续下降4.9pct至13.8%。到2018Q3，Model 3生产效率提升，周产量爬升至5000辆，毛利率提升至20%左右，当季交付56065辆Model 3。量产规模扩大后，单车折旧/摊销成本由2017Q4的1.56万美元下降至6002美元，汽车业务毛利率（Non GAAP）回升至25.5%。折旧摊销和可变成本的下降能够实现规模效应最大化，是单车毛利实现跃升的关键。申万宏源证券进一步通过成本拆解的方式，发现规模化量产带来的单车固定资产折旧/摊销成本下降，帮助Model3从2018年Q1毛利率的-2.0%提升至Q3的17.6%，半年内毛利率提升了近20%。2．供应链国产化，整车降本特斯拉主要销往北美、中国和欧洲市场，特斯拉在中国布局上海超级工厂满足本土需求，在德国布局柏林超级工厂满足欧洲市场需求，通过供应链本土化和就近供应市场，利用当地原材料和零部件，可以显著降低生产成本、海运成本和关税成本。据申万宏源证券测算，加州工厂标续版Model 3成本21.21万元，上海工厂标续版Model 3成本16.90万元。2020Q1美国地区标续版Model 3售价3.899万美元（约合26.9万元），中国地区Model 3售价（补贴后）29.9万元。据此可得2020Q1加州弗里蒙特工厂毛利率约为 15.5%，上海工厂毛利率约 32.0%。 据乘联会数据，上海工厂2021年交付48.413万辆，占特斯拉全球总交付量的51.7%。 上海工厂产能强劲，毛利率水平高于其他超级工厂，至2022Q2国产化率超过95%。2021Q2，中国标准续航版Model Y上市，据称2022年7月产线扩建升级后可实现周产14000辆Model Y。 两款大众车型的产销持续增长将更进一步凸显上海工厂成本优势和盈利能力。3．商业创新，软件收费提升单车净利今年以来，全球动力电池供应链持续涨价，镍、钴、锂等动力电池原材料价格大幅上涨。碳酸锂材料价格自2021年初疯涨10倍且仍维持高价。同时，新能源汽车车身重要原材料铝价较2021年初同比也上涨37.5%。在供应链成本上涨的行业普遍压力下，特斯拉盈利能力反而走向了暴增。主要系特斯拉开创硬件预埋+软件收费服务，打破传统汽车商业模式，提升车企盈利能力。特斯拉将收入来源从传统的整车一次性销售收入延伸至售后软件和智能服务收入，通过自动驾驶包、OTA付费升级、车联网订阅服务等获得软件收入。随着特斯拉全球保有量的不断提升和用户粘性的提升，软件服务将成为贡献特斯拉营收的重要力量。通过测算，申万宏源证券预计2025年FSD相关收入可达54.19亿美元。此外，碳积分收入也是2020年特斯拉归母净利润转正的重要因素。4．核心技术自主可控，黑科技持续降本依托中国高效成熟的零部件供应链体系，特斯拉90%以上零部件实现本土化供应。但是，特斯拉在热管理、电机控制、电机、电子电气架构和智能驾驶方案上实现技术全栈自研，掌握进化迭代的主动权。特斯拉在新款Model Y上实现了4680电池、CTC方案和一体压铸技术三大黑科技，进一步实现降本增效：（1）应用自制4680电池成本降低14%。（2）由CTP大模组电池方案进一步发展至CTC电池底盘一体化方案，将电芯直接集成到车辆底盘，结构化、集成化的电芯设计使整车重量降低10%，续航提升14%，零件减少370个，单位成本下降7%，单位投资下降8%。（3）在后底板、前机舱和中段电池盒采用一体压铸技术。申万宏源证券预计若4680技术及一体压铸技术全面部署，可为整车再次降本近20%。 采用4680电池后成本降低为434.1元/kWh， 以Model 3/Y平均电池容量55KWh为例， 则单车电池成本可下降30393元。以Model 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