大摩：即使美国躲过经济衰退，美股可能还会继续下跌

环球市场播报2022-07-18

华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

露西法
2022-07-18
露西法
信你个鬼

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2252828739?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-07-18 17:23","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","id":"2252828739","market":"us","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"大摩：即使美国躲过经济衰退，美股可能还会继续下跌","media":"环球市场播报","content":"<div>\n<p>华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"highlight_sina","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>大摩：即使美国躲过经济衰退，美股可能还会继续下跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n大摩：即使美国躲过经济衰退，美股可能还会继续下跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-07-18 17:23 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":".DJI","symbol_name":"道琼斯","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml","article_id":"2252828739","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/347452cc99fb488c45ccd900fcf3aa20"],"rights":{"source":"highlight_sina","url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-07-18/doc-imizirav4167808.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.art_tit_h1{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}","selectors":".art_box, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, .action, .fl_popup, .weibo_info","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2252828739","pubTimestamp":1658136215,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"highlight_sina","name":"新浪港股"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.com.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"Morgan Stanley: Even if the United States avoids the economic recession, US stocks may continue to fall","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f148a7241fe30c554cbb601da50eec","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"华尔街的一位大空头表示，即使美国经济躲过衰退，美国股市可能也还会继续下跌。“逆趋势的上涨可能还会继续，但不要误会，即使我们躲过了可能性正在上升的经济衰退，我们也不认为熊市已经结束，”Michael J． Wilson在一份报告中写道。美国股市今年大跌，推动标普500指数进入熊市，因为市场担心火爆的通胀率和鹰派的美联储会让经济陷入衰退。摩根士丹利的模型显示经济衰退的可能性继续上升，未来12个月内发生衰退的概率为36%，而其他警告信号包括申领失业救济的人数上升以及职位空缺减少。鉴于美联储预计下周将再加息75个基点，投资者现在转向了企业财报季，看看在价格飙升和悲观情绪下，利润率是否具有韧性。高盛集团策略师David J． Kostin表示，他预计疲弱的宏观经济前景将威胁已经从纪录高位回落的企业盈利能力。这位策略师在7月 15日的报告中写道，利润率和借贷成本如今是股票回报率面临的两个主要风险因素。尽管面对投入成本上升、omicron疫情和供应链中断等问题，但股票回报率在过去一年中一直保持良好。摩根士丹利的Wilson是今年最坚定的股市空头之一，并准确预测到最近市场的下跌。他还表示，他对利润率压力将在第二季度之后有所缓解的预期持“怀疑态度”。“持续的劳动力、原材料、库存和运输成本压力再加上需求减速，这些因素对利润率构成的风险并未反映在市场普遍预期中，”Wilson说。他表示，即使收入增速预估保持必变，但净利润率水平回到疫情前的水平意味着远期每股收益将受到10%的冲击。另一方面，摩根大通的策略师们表示，投资者可以对夏季期间更具挑战性的盈利相关新闻视而不见。Mislav Matejka等策略师在报告中表示，股市通常会在盈利低谷到来或之前见顶，市场可能正在接近坏数据开始被视为好消息的时点。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":686329017,"gmtCreate":1658138007340,"gmtModify":1704869020965,"author":{"id":"3528978398808466","authorId":"3528978398808466","name":"露西法","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df90c29039d3a24dc490067e0f0e583f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3528978398808466","authorIdStr":"3528978398808466"},"htmlText":"信你个鬼","listText":"信你个鬼","text":"信你个鬼","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/686329017","repostId":2252828739,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.3","shortVersion":"4.29.3","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2252828739"}