“债王”格罗斯：美国将会衰退，不要抄底股市商品

华尔街见闻2022-07-12

今年上半年，美股美债遭持续大幅抛售，录得数十年来最糟糕开局，同时经济衰退风险四起。那么在此之际，对投资者来说，什么才是最好的选择？太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）的创始人、长期被业界称作“债券之王”的比尔·格罗斯（Bill Gross）在周一的专栏文章中给出了答案，什么都不要买，建议不要逢低买入债券、股票和大宗商品，如果非得要选的话，一年期国债是最好的的选择。在格罗斯看来，美国加息很有可能导致衰退...

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免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

大家原地起飞
2022-07-12
大家原地起飞
跌涨不由人，得失天注定，一切随缘。
明媚de杰林
2022-07-12
明媚de杰林
借鉴别人是一种收获，学习老师的文章，做最好的自己。

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href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3664479><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>今年上半年，美股美债遭持续大幅抛售，录得数十年来最糟糕开局，同时经济衰退风险四起。那么在此之际，对投资者来说，什么才是最好的选择？太平洋投资管理公司（Pimco）的创始人、长期被业界称作“债券之王”的比尔·格罗斯（Bill Gross）在周一的专栏文章中给出了答案，什么都不要买，建议不要逢低买入债券、股票和大宗商品，如果非得要选的话，一年期国债是最好的的选择。在格罗斯看来，美国加息很有可能导致衰退...</p>\n\n<a 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Gross）在周一的专栏文章中给出了答案，什么都不要买，建议不要逢低买入债券、股票和大宗商品，如果非得要选的话，一年期国债是最好的的选择。在格罗斯看来，美国加息很有可能导致衰退，其在年初以来一直敦促投资者采取谨慎态度，他指出：鉴于10年期国债收益率约为3%，而去年年底时为1.5%，这意味着“风险降低”，但“几乎不会有回报”，不要买。股票必须与未来令人失望的业绩作斗争，而且价格也没有表面上看起来那么便宜，不要买。商品呢？它们“快没油了”。尽管华尔街有句格言“总有牛市存在于某个地方”，但现在却很难找到，保持耐心。在我看来，一年期国债收益率为2.7%，这要比货币市场基金和几乎所有其他投资都要好。现在不是采取“沃尔克”式政策的时候格罗斯在文章中指出，当前全球还是处在经济学家明斯基所提出框架的“投机性融资”阶段，也就是更多的信贷流入金融投机，而不是支撑经济增长。格罗斯写道：明斯基框架将货币演变分为三个阶段，“对冲性融资”到“投机性融资”，最后到“庞氏金融”，每个阶段都需要越来越多的信贷增长，最终导致通货膨胀加剧，而脆弱的债务型经济可能“内爆”（如超新星爆发）。像“超新星”一样，全球货币体系正在失去能量并具有熵效应，需要越来越多的信贷增长来维持经济增长水平，而信贷更多地流向了投机性融资，而不是实体经济。接着，格罗斯表示，美联储不可能太高、太快地加息，而又能避免重创高杠杆的美国和全球其他地区的经济。“因此，不管鲍威尔如何强调通胀是他首要认为，也是几乎唯一的政策考量，强硬行动也是行不通的。”他写道，“现在不是采取“沃尔克”式政策的时候。”加息的终点在哪里?加息的终点在哪里?为了回答这个问题，格罗斯使用布林带（Bollinger Band）技术分析，根据联储基金利率历史水平的标准差来预测美联储未来的行动。他得出的答案是——在3.5%时停止，并尽快到达。格罗斯表示：美联储主席鲍威尔及其同事可能“尽快”将基准利率从目前的1.75%提高到3.5%，来“制造一次温和衰退，进而逐步降低通胀。”这与债券市场目前对美联储基金利率峰值的定价一致，市场定价显示预计将在2023年第一季度达到该峰值。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":688856507,"gmtCreate":1657596232111,"gmtModify":1704867675517,"author":{"id":"4120121759756090","authorId":"4120121759756090","name":"大家原地起飞","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4120121759756090","authorIdStr":"4120121759756090"},"htmlText":"跌涨不由人，得失天注定，一切随缘。","listText":"跌涨不由人，得失天注定，一切随缘。","text":"跌涨不由人，得失天注定，一切随缘。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688856507","repostId":2250999069,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":688829987,"gmtCreate":1657591832753,"gmtModify":1704867650634,"author":{"id":"4119743762379280","authorId":"4119743762379280","name":"明媚de杰林","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4119743762379280","authorIdStr":"4119743762379280"},"htmlText":"借鉴别人是一种收获，学习老师的文章，做最好的自己。","listText":"借鉴别人是一种收获，学习老师的文章，做最好的自己。","text":"借鉴别人是一种收获，学习老师的文章，做最好的自己。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688829987","repostId":2250999069,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":0,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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