美国6月通胀势创40多年来新高，美联储将继续激进加息?

智通财经2022-07-12

美国周三将公布6月通胀数据。据经济学家预计，美国6月通胀将继续升温达到新高，使美联储为本月晚些时候再次大幅加息做好准备。根据彭博社调查的预测中值显示，美国6月CPI预计同比增长8.8%，续创1981年以来新高。与5月份相比预计增长1.1%，这标志着过去四个月通胀将至少上涨1%。预测显示，通胀加速可能将反映出汽油价格和食品成本上涨。此前有报道称，在周三发布报告之前，美国汽油价格在6月中旬一度达到...

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孟德迟到了
2022-07-13
孟德迟到了
拜登美联储是要苦天下，肥沙特伊朗。
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2022-07-12
7_9899
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aggressively?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/81541801605bf829fe0ad186001ae8c9","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"美国周三将公布6月通胀数据。据经济学家预计，美国6月通胀将继续升温达到新高，使美联储为本月晚些时候再次大幅加息做好准备。根据彭博社调查的预测中值显示，美国6月CPI预计同比增长8.8%，续创1981年以来新高。与5月份相比预计增长1.1%，这标志着过去四个月通胀将至少上涨1%。预测显示，通胀加速可能将反映出汽油价格和食品成本上涨。此前有报道称，在周三发布报告之前，美国汽油价格在6月中旬一度达到每加仑5美元以上的高点，这将使整体CPI环比涨幅至少增加0.5个百分点。事实上，在俄乌冲突之前，油价就已经处于上涨趋势，这也在一定程度说明了美国总统拜登的低支持率以及他即将前往中东的原因。据称，拜登希望在中东说服阿拉伯领导人生产更多的石油。不过，油价本月开始出现下降，这表明CPI有可能从7月开始逐渐回落。另外，尽管通胀率仍处于高位，但随着零售库存膨胀推动商品折扣和二手车价格走软，通胀可能已经在一定程度上降温。据预测，不包括能源和食品的核心CPI在6月份的环比涨幅可能为0.5%，为三个月来的最小涨幅。这也可能会导致美联储的态度有所缓和。目前，虽然美联储官员已经暗示，下次会议将加息75个基点，但未来几个月较小的通胀数据可能会导致今年晚些时候的政策行动不再那么激进。“如果我的看法是正确的，即6月是一系列核心CPI数据放缓的开始，这也正是美联储希望看到的，那么我认为官员们的评论将很快转向9月加息50个基点，然后到今年晚些时候会有更多的人呼吁放缓至25个基点，”Inflution Insights LLC创始人Omair Sharif表示。尽管如此，虽然衡量商品通胀的指标可能开始减速，但住房等服务业可能会令CPI在未来几个月继续保持在高位。花旗经济学家Andrew Hollenhorst、Veronica Clark和Isfar Munir在一份报告中表示：“通胀显然已经从商品领域转移出去，但现在牢固地扎根于房地产领域——这要归功于非常紧张的住房市场——以及非住房服务领域。”“我们继续预计经济活动将放缓，价格也会有所放缓，但过热的房地产市场可能需要时间来降温，而这可能只会滞后地影响到租金，”花旗经济学家表示。不过，德意志银行经济学家仍警告称，如果通胀指标未来几个月没有像预期那样下降，这有可能导致美联储“对货币政策立场进行更痛苦的调整”。这将增加经济衰退风险，因为更大幅度、更快的加息将对需求造成更大的影响。","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":null,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":688644998,"gmtCreate":1657641641320,"gmtModify":1704867867089,"author":{"id":"148326979664115","authorId":"148326979664115","name":"孟德迟到了","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/e8ab403d5b62cc9c5c6701cee1273d05","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"拜登美联储是要苦天下，肥沙特伊朗。","listText":"拜登美联储是要苦天下，肥沙特伊朗。","text":"拜登美联储是要苦天下，肥沙特伊朗。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688644998","repostId":2250940975,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":688648140,"gmtCreate":1657639476485,"gmtModify":1704867860606,"author":{"id":"3546257508797341","authorId":"3546257508797341","name":"7_9899","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a9a72bc5af49721ad600ba96fcdcd556","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"中国最**","listText":"中国最**","text":"中国最**","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/688648140","repostId":2250940975,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":23,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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