外媒头条 | 英国首相约翰逊官宣辞职，9月或可选出新首相

环球市场播报2022-07-08

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、经济衰退忧虑加剧高盛大幅下调美国二季度GDP预期至0.7% 2、美联储理事看好经济软着陆前景支持本月升息75基点3、“众叛亲离”后约翰逊宣布辞职 9月或可选出新首相4、美国5月份贸易逆差收窄至855亿美元降至今年最低5、美国抵押贷款利率跌至5.3% 创2008年以来最大周降幅6、传马斯克收购推特交易陷入严重危机推特盘后一度大跌6%经济衰退...

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plaispool
2022-07-08
plaispool
滚吧啦
以梦为马Ling
2022-07-08
以梦为马Ling
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不亏先生
2022-07-08
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高盛大幅下调美国二季度GDP预期在对美国经济衰退迫在眉睫的担忧加剧之际，高盛经济学家预计，该国经济在第二季度几乎没有增长。高盛周四下调了美国4-6月期间的GDP预期，目前预计年化增长率仅为0.7%，大幅低于此前预期的1.9%。周四早些时候发布的最新报告显示，美国5月贸易逆差降至855亿美元，为今年以来的最低水平。“5月贸易报告的细节弱于我们之前的假设，我们现在预计到6月实际商品进口将保持高位，”高盛在报告中表示。近期一系列数据都表明美国经济根基愈发不稳且前景黯淡，华尔街机构纷纷下调了增长预期。亚特兰大联储周四上午更新的GDPNow模型显示，美国GDP预计在二季度下降1.9%，但与7月1日相比略有提升，当时该指标显示当季GDP下降2.1%。美联储理事看好经济软着陆前景 支持本月升息75基点美联储理事Christopher Waller表示，他支持本月再次加息75个基点，而9月会议“或许”可以加息50个基点。他还淡化了对美国经济下滑的担忧，圣路易斯行长James Bullard也表示出类似观点，其在一场活动上表示，美国经济软着陆的“机会较高”。Waller周四在美国全国商业经济协会主持的网络直播中表示，“我们需要转向更具限制性的政策，越早行动越好”。关于借贷成本上升可能导致美国经济陷入衰退的观点，Waller一再强调遏制过热通胀的必要性。他说，“通胀是对经济活动征税，控制价格势在必行”。Waller认为，对经济衰退的担忧被“夸大了”，加息对经济的影响应该相对较小。“众叛亲离”后约翰逊宣布辞职 9月或可选出新首相鲍里斯·约翰逊宣布辞去英国首相职务，风雨不断的三年任期将就此落下帷幕。在此期间，一系列的丑闻最终发展成为了内阁和议会党团的反叛。包括财政大臣Rishi Sunak等大量政府成员辞职，且许多保守党议员公开痛批他的判断力、领导力和是非观之后，辞职的局面已不可避免，现年58岁的约翰逊最终屈服。“显然，现在议会保守党的意愿是，党内应该有一名新的领袖，进而一名新的首相，”约翰逊在唐宁街10号门外发表简短声明，称他卸任是议会议员的“从众本能”所致。市场对约翰逊辞职的反应积极，英镑/美元接近1.20。富时100指数随其他全球股指走高。但投资者和市场策略师认为，约翰逊任期结束可能会缓和政治动荡，但无法解决压制英国市场的问题，因此仍旧看空英国资产。美国5月份贸易逆差收窄至855亿美元 降至今年最低美国商务部公布，5月份贸易逆差收窄至855亿美元，预估为逆差847亿美元，前月为逆差866.9亿美元。美国商务部周四的数据显示，当月贸易逆差环比减少11亿美元，降至855亿美元，降幅为1.3%。经济学家之前的预测中值为接近850亿美元。上述数字都没有经过通胀调整。5月份商品和服务出口增长1.2%，达到创纪录的2559亿美元；进口增长0.6%，至3414亿美元。贸易逆差连续几个月收窄，可能有助于提振第二季度国内生产总值（GDP）。在第一季度，贸易逆差激增拖累当季GDP下降3.2个百分点。经过通胀因素调整后，5月份商品贸易逆差基本持平于1166亿美元。3月份时为1355亿美元。出口增长反映了出口到海外的商品价值达到创纪录水平。5月份包括石油和石油产品在内的工业品和消费品出口均实现增长。美国抵押贷款利率跌至5.3% 创2008年以来最大周降幅美国抵押贷款利率创下2008年以来最大单周跌幅。房地美周四在声明中称，30年期抵押贷款利率平均为5.3%，创一个月来最低，上周为5.7%。购房者可以略微松口气了。贷款利率的飙升促使更多人退出了购房大军，导致市场上存量房增加。某些地区的卖家已经开始降价。房地美首席经济学家Sam Khater表示，“利率下降给买家带来了些许安慰，如果在房价高企和经济放缓同时作用下，房价上涨势头显著放缓，房地产市场将继续步入正常化。”抵押贷款数据提供商Black Knight Inc．的数据显示，虽然房价涨势开始略微减速，但目前价格仍然是1980年代中期以来最贵。传马斯克收购推特交易陷入严重危机 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