外媒头条 | 下一次美国经济衰退会是什么样子?

环球市场播报2022-07-04

全球财经媒体昨夜今晨共同关注的头条新闻主要有：1、因独立日假期美股7月4日（周一）休市一天2、美国独立日假期期间有近1.5万个航班延误3、亚马逊创始人贝索斯猛烈抨击拜登呼吁降低天然气价格4、美股上半年惨烈收官投资者为关键7月做好准备5、下一次美国经济衰退可能会是什么样子6、参议院民主党人敦促拜登采取措施以对抗通货膨胀因独立日假期美股7月4日（周一）休市一天受美国独立日假期影响，美股7月4日...

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精彩评论

小虎牙疼
2022-07-04
小虎牙疼
下一次？说得这一次过去了
youde
2022-07-04
youde
òᆺó
- Julio堂:
  拜登庸碌无为
梓坚
2022-07-04
梓坚
不好说美国老会不停的折腾👌👌👌
2461fbaf
2022-07-04
2461fbaf
美股即将迎来七月反弹

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美股7月4日（周一）休市一天受美国独立日假期影响，美股7月4日（明日）休市一日，ICE旗下布伦特原油期货合约交易提前于北京时间次日01：30结束，CME旗下贵金属、美国原油合约交易提前于北京时间次日02：30结束。独立日是美国为纪念1776年7月4日大陆会议批准《独立宣言》所设的节日，宣布独立意味着建国，从这层意义上来说独立日就是美国的国庆节。1760至1770年代之间，英属北美13个殖民地与大不列颠王国之间的紧张关系持续升级。1774年9月，13个殖民地代表在费城召开第一届大陆会议，拟就呈交英王的请愿书，制订抵制英货的法案，但仍希望殖民地与宗主国英国之间能和平解决冲突。但是，英国颁布压制殖民地自治的法令后，13个殖民地谋求独立的呼声日益高涨。美国独立日假期期间有近1.5万个航班延误根据美国航班数据追踪网站“FlightAware”的数据，截至当地时间7月3日上午，在独立日假期期间有近1.5万个美国航班延误，1500个航班被取消。据悉，7月1日，美国独立日假期开始之际，有超过246万人通过了机场，创下了自疫情开始以来的单日最高纪录。美国航空公司由于人员短缺，以及机场建设、恶劣天气等原因不堪重负，其中从东海岸起飞的航班受影响最为严重。在美国新泽西州的纽瓦克国际机场，7月3日的起飞计划中有3%直接被取消；7月2日，位于纽约市的肯尼迪国际机场有36%的航班出现延误，拉瓜迪亚机场有11%的原定航班被取消，20%的航班延误；华盛顿的里根国家机场2日有29%的航班延误，7%的航班被取消。亚马逊创始人贝索斯猛烈抨击拜登 呼吁降低天然气价格亚马逊公司创始人杰夫贝索斯批评了美国总统乔拜登的一条推文，呼吁石油公司高管降低汽油价格。贝索斯正在回应拜登对经营加油站和为消费者定价的公司的批评。“这是一个冲突和全球危险的时期，”总统周六在推特上写道。“降低您在加油站收取的价格，以反映您为产品支付的成本。现在就去做。”贝索斯周六晚上在推特上写道：“通货膨胀对于白宫来说是一个太重要的问题，无法继续发表这样的声明。这要么是直接的误导，要么是对基本市场动态的深刻误解。”根据美国汽车协会（AAA） 的数据，周日全国汽油平均价格为 4.812 美元，接近上个月创下的 5.016 美元的历史新高。美股上半年惨烈收官 投资者为关键7月做好准备美股上半年飘绿收官，纳指半年跌近30%，标普创1970年来最差上半年表现；投资者为7月份可能设定华尔街未来几个月路线的一系列潜在爆发点做好准备。分析人士指出，美国经济增长放缓，企业盈利前景黯淡以及美联储为遏制通胀大幅加息，在过去几个月来持续打压市场情绪。随着恐慌情绪持续蔓延，未来走势仍旧不容乐观。受美国独立日假期影响，美股7月4日（明日）休市一日。第二季度企业财报、备受期待的美国通胀数据和下周三美联储货币政策会议纪要可能成为关键事件。目前，华尔街的情绪很严峻。投资者依靠债券来抵消股票下跌的影响，与股票一起下跌的ICE BofA国债指数有望创下该指数历史上最糟糕的一年。在德意志银行最近的一项调查中，约90%的受访者预计到2023年底美国经济将出现衰退。下一次美国经济衰退可能会是什么样子经济衰退就像不幸的家庭一样，各有各的痛苦。经济学家认为到明年年底的可能性越来越大。美国的衰退可能是温和的，但也可能是长期的。许多观察家预计，与2007-09年大金融危机和1980年代的连续低迷相比，任何下降都不会那么痛苦，当时通货膨胀率上一次如此之高。他们说，经济并没有像早期那么严重。虽然衰退可能是温和的，但它最终可能比1990-91年和2001年缩短的8个月收缩持续时间更长。这是因为通胀上升可能会阻止美联储急于扭转衰退。无论回调采取何种形式，有一件事似乎是确定的：当它来临时，会有很多伤害。在二战以来的十几次衰退中，经济平均收缩2.5%，失业率上升约3.8个百分点，企业利润下降约15%。平均长度为10个月。即使是低端的经济衰退也可能导致数十万美国人失去工作。随着收益下降，受重创的股市可能会进一步下跌。参议院民主党人敦促拜登采取措施以对抗通货膨胀美国弗吉尼亚州的参议员蒂姆凯恩表示，拜登“能够而且必须现在就采取行动”并“寻求广泛的解决方案”来应对美国处于 40 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