市场或将再次变盘，华尔街开始为通胀见顶厉兵秣马

环球市场播报2022-06-29

美联储的不懈战斗终于初尝胜利果实：华尔街的通胀押注正在从历史高位回落。债券市场显示对未来十年通胀的预期正在下降，价值股热潮逆转，工业大宗商品的超级周期降温。这些都说明2022年押注通胀的交易很可能已经见顶，这种转变有可能扰乱跨资产交易，Bill Ackman等对此持不同意见的人可能面临挑战。随着金融环境收紧，借贷成本上升，股价下跌，消费者和企业遭遇冲击，美联储的政策紧缩行动开始给炙手可热的商业周期...

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精彩评论

旷世猛男
2022-06-30
旷世猛男
还早呢
为了生活奔波
2022-06-30
为了生活奔波
别上当
随势而动
2022-06-29
随势而动
这是要抄底的意思？
荷兰猪
2022-06-29
荷兰猪
环球市场播报哈哈，华人街的人都明白，没有到大宗狂跌的时候，可能是底部。
深野昂_8190
2022-06-29
深野昂_8190
啊？

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href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2022-06-29/doc-imizmscu9222438.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储的不懈战斗终于初尝胜利果实：华尔街的通胀押注正在从历史高位回落。债券市场显示对未来十年通胀的预期正在下降，价值股热潮逆转，工业大宗商品的超级周期降温。这些都说明2022年押注通胀的交易很可能已经见顶，这种转变有可能扰乱跨资产交易，Bill Ackman等对此持不同意见的人可能面临挑战。随着金融环境收紧，借贷成本上升，股价下跌，消费者和企业遭遇冲击，美联储的政策紧缩行动开始给炙手可热的商业周期...</p>\n\n<a 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.action","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2247031821","pubTimestamp":1656458478,"columns":[],"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina_symbol","name":"新浪媒体新闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"美联储的不懈战斗终于初尝胜利果实：华尔街的通胀押注正在从历史高位回落。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"translate_title":"The market may change again, and Wall Street begins to prepare for the peak of inflation","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80b5a478cd2f0c6a7136aa83d7c1d1c4","symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9},"content_text":"美联储的不懈战斗终于初尝胜利果实：华尔街的通胀押注正在从历史高位回落。债券市场显示对未来十年通胀的预期正在下降，价值股热潮逆转，工业大宗商品的超级周期降温。这些都说明2022年押注通胀的交易很可能已经见顶，这种转变有可能扰乱跨资产交易，Bill Ackman等对此持不同意见的人可能面临挑战。随着金融环境收紧，借贷成本上升，股价下跌，消费者和企业遭遇冲击，美联储的政策紧缩行动开始给炙手可热的商业周期降温。与此同时，商品消费热潮也随着主要零售商库存的增加而结束。“美国通胀率可能接近顶峰，” Principal Global Investors首席全球策略师Seema Shah表示。 “消费者正在从商品转向服务业，整体需求也在放缓，因此核心商品价格压力变得更加偏向通缩。”不过在整个疫情时代，投资者对通胀趋势的预测成绩并不怎么好。之前市场并不是没有宣布过通胀见顶，但现实让投资者失望而归。美国5月份通胀率又一次超过预测，引起经济学家和市场困惑。巴克莱欧洲股票策略主管Emmanuel Cau在给客户的一份报告中写道，“过去12个月里通胀率连续多次超过预期，今年早些时候至少发生过一次“通胀见顶”事件，这次市场的预估会比以前更现实更靠谱吗？”这一回，消费者的反应可能已经发生了变化。高物价开始改变他们的行为，阻止他们购买大额商品。5年和10年期美债盈亏平衡利率已经回落至2月俄乌冲突之前的水平。5年期盈亏平衡利率跌至2.8%左右，这意味着市场人士预计未来五年CPI升幅将更接近美联储2%的通胀目标。一个大宗商品指标跌至3月份以来的最低水平，规模19亿美元的景顺德银农业Pacer Swan SOS Fund of Funds ETF|ETF遭遇的单周撤资达到2.35亿美元，为2008年以来最大。iShares通胀保值债券（TIPS）产品连续两个季度遭遇赎回，ETF投资者以2013年以来最快速度撤离。与此同时，股票经理们开始重新青睐大型科技股等通常在低利率环境下表现出色的股票，而不是在通胀预期升高时涨势较好的价值股。“我们正处于经济放缓的过程中，长期通胀预期似乎正在下降，” 放弃了长期以来对价值股做多观点的富国银行股票策略主管Christopher Harvey表示，“大约两周前，我们从周期性股票阵营转向。”密歇根大学调查的较长期通胀预期上周从14年高点回落，可能降低大幅加息的紧迫性。然而，依然有很多理由保持对通胀的对冲。花旗意外指数显示，到目前为止，尽管其他数据低于预期，但主要经济体的通胀数据仍超出预期水平。商品和服务业指数仍处于历史高位，尽管金融指标降温，但官方CPI可能在未来几个月继续小幅上涨。但尽管如此，鸽派投资策略变得越来越有吸引力：在总需求从历史水平放缓之际，经济衰退的呼声越来越高。“我们开始增持一些受利率上升影响尤为严重的板块，例如生物技术，” GenTrust的投资策略师Mimi Duff周一在报告中写道。“展望未来，随着利率进一步企稳，我们会考虑延长久期，假设我们认为通胀压力可能减弱，可以在标普500指数达到3300-3500点的情况下高配股票。”","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":683747003,"gmtCreate":1656543627203,"gmtModify":1704865129577,"author":{"id":"3539229655408025","authorId":"3539229655408025","name":"旷世猛男","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/50e5060505138cbcb3f792d17b7a4413","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3539229655408025","authorIdStr":"3539229655408025"},"htmlText":"还早呢","listText":"还早呢","text":"还早呢","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683747003","repostId":2247031821,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":683746652,"gmtCreate":1656539240778,"gmtModify":1704865123609,"author":{"id":"3583531717368047","authorId":"3583531717368047","name":"为了生活奔波","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/207020b5c71b691fde5bc4de6b867885","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3583531717368047","authorIdStr":"3583531717368047"},"htmlText":"别上当","listText":"别上当","text":"别上当","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683746652","repostId":2247031821,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":683753195,"gmtCreate":1656516221818,"gmtModify":1704865100817,"author":{"id":"3433820373578412","authorId":"3433820373578412","name":"随势而动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f9b44171a3552fdbbc8da9951d5c4d9","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d30fc324d24ff33075e053005564f0df","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3433820373578412","authorIdStr":"3433820373578412"},"htmlText":"这是要抄底的意思？","listText":"这是要抄底的意思？","text":"这是要抄底的意思？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683753195","repostId":2247031821,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":683721259,"gmtCreate":1656513526273,"gmtModify":1704865085973,"author":{"id":"3525158002740343","authorId":"3525158002740343","name":"荷兰猪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b9bf507c9155eb149175d79776f6bdee","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f84d87792f02cf78e80ee34979fd31e5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3525158002740343","authorIdStr":"3525158002740343"},"htmlText":"环球市场播报哈哈，华人街的人都明白，没有到大宗狂跌的时候，可能是底部。","listText":"环球市场播报哈哈，华人街的人都明白，没有到大宗狂跌的时候，可能是底部。","text":"环球市场播报哈哈，华人街的人都明白，没有到大宗狂跌的时候，可能是底部。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683721259","repostId":2247031821,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":683721301,"gmtCreate":1656513417406,"gmtModify":1704865085293,"author":{"id":"4119521029122030","authorId":"4119521029122030","name":"深野昂_8190","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8ad68269374d94505637d26476ba2e53","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4119521029122030","authorIdStr":"4119521029122030"},"htmlText":"啊？","listText":"啊？","text":"啊？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/683721301","repostId":2247031821,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":31,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":20,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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