5日涨超4倍！直播带货的新东方在线天花板在哪里？

中信建投证券研究2022-06-16

随着新东方旗下直播间“东方甄选”爆红，港股新东方在线近日持续猛拉，短短5个交易日内涨超4倍，成为港股市场最牛的“吸金兽”。6月9日，东方甄选抖音直播间凭借双语直播快速破圈，引发全民关注，“东方甄选”抖音直播间日新增粉丝于6月14日出现向上拐点，6月14日日增粉丝达到183万（前四天日均不到80万）。东方甄选之所以如此火爆，主要有两个原因：1、东方甄选直播间中英双语+穿插历史文化等知识讲解的独特直播...

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精彩评论

Justin_L
2022-06-16
Justin_L
涨这么多我合股之前的成本还没回来。
恒跌
2022-06-16
恒跌
不玩中国股就不会被割
七宝七好
2022-06-16
七宝七好
东方甄选迎来了复利拐点，之后还会突破的。虽然可能达不到最大想象，但也不会差太多。
打垮华尔街
2022-06-16
打垮华尔街
新东方直播间人有点多，基本十万+。人气很猛
非洲韭菜盒子
2022-06-16
非洲韭菜盒子
李佳琦为什么缺席，懂得都懂

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3000万元（在抖音直播间排名第二）和4000万（在抖音直播间排名第一）分别进行估算，东方甄选年GMV将达到110、146亿元，在此参考交个朋友直播间，净利润/GMV为3%，伴随自营产品比例加大和客单价提升，利润率有望提升至5%，给予20倍PE，分别对应110、146亿市值。另外，公司大学业务收入5亿元，按照10%净利率，20倍PE计算，对应10亿市值。中信建投认为，乐观情况下考虑公司在手净现金及等价物16亿元，假设未来在日均GMV达3000万元（在抖音直播间排名第二）和4000万（在抖音直播间排名第一），两种假设下，新东方在线合并计算市值分别为136亿元、172亿元。目前新东方在线市值已超过250亿港元。而有网友大胆估计，东方甄选全年能达到200亿的GMV，按照利润10%、20倍PE算，市值将达400亿。风险提示：双语直播潜在政策风险、产品质量风险、粉丝数量增长不达预期的风险","kind":"news","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":689311041,"gmtCreate":1655371161488,"gmtModify":1704862120638,"author":{"id":"3501113550178595","authorId":"3501113550178595","name":"Justin_L","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4fc9cc59f9e5eff9a291919842f8f5","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3501113550178595","idStr":"3501113550178595"},"htmlText":"涨这么多我合股之前的成本还没回来。","listText":"涨这么多我合股之前的成本还没回来。","text":"涨这么多我合股之前的成本还没回来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689311041","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689947345,"gmtCreate":1655357083888,"gmtModify":1704862045284,"author":{"id":"3464587978783849","authorId":"3464587978783849","name":"恒跌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1979ed439107058a8ba67c3a90477ff6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3464587978783849","idStr":"3464587978783849"},"htmlText":"不玩中国股就不会被割","listText":"不玩中国股就不会被割","text":"不玩中国股就不会被割","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689947345","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689946994,"gmtCreate":1655354577320,"gmtModify":1704862038141,"author":{"id":"4117188042035870","authorId":"4117188042035870","name":"七宝七好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/882b7e9d0ac8146cfa0c8e391250e65f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4117188042035870","idStr":"4117188042035870"},"htmlText":"东方甄选迎来了复利拐点，之后还会突破的。虽然可能达不到最大想象，但也不会差太多。","listText":"东方甄选迎来了复利拐点，之后还会突破的。虽然可能达不到最大想象，但也不会差太多。","text":"东方甄选迎来了复利拐点，之后还会突破的。虽然可能达不到最大想象，但也不会差太多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689946994","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689948768,"gmtCreate":1655354248455,"gmtModify":1704862037794,"author":{"id":"3558529685925795","authorId":"3558529685925795","name":"打垮华尔街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3558529685925795","idStr":"3558529685925795"},"htmlText":"新东方直播间人有点多，基本十万+。人气很猛","listText":"新东方直播间人有点多，基本十万+。人气很猛","text":"新东方直播间人有点多，基本十万+。人气很猛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689948768","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689941472,"gmtCreate":1655353939601,"gmtModify":1704862035887,"author":{"id":"3566900685391720","authorId":"3566900685391720","name":"非洲韭菜盒子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3566900685391720","idStr":"3566900685391720"},"htmlText":"李佳琦为什么缺席，懂得都懂","listText":"李佳琦为什么缺席，懂得都懂","text":"李佳琦为什么缺席，懂得都懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689941472","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":9,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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