5日涨超4倍！直播带货的新东方在线天花板在哪里？

中信建投证券研究2022-06-16

随着新东方旗下直播间“东方甄选”爆红，港股新东方在线近日持续猛拉，短短5个交易日内涨超4倍，成为港股市场最牛的“吸金兽”。6月9日，东方甄选抖音直播间凭借双语直播快速破圈，引发全民关注，“东方甄选”抖音直播间日新增粉丝于6月14日出现向上拐点，6月14日日增粉丝达到183万（前四天日均不到80万）。东方甄选之所以如此火爆，主要有两个原因：1、东方甄选直播间中英双语+穿插历史文化等知识讲解的独特直播...

网页链接

免责声明：本文观点仅代表作者个人观点，不构成本平台的投资建议，本平台不对文章信息准确性、完整性和及时性做出任何保证，亦不对因使用或信赖文章信息引发的任何损失承担责任。

精彩评论

Justin_L
2022-06-16
Justin_L
涨这么多我合股之前的成本还没回来。
恒跌
2022-06-16
恒跌
不玩中国股就不会被割
七宝七好
2022-06-16
七宝七好
东方甄选迎来了复利拐点，之后还会突破的。虽然可能达不到最大想象，但也不会差太多。
打垮华尔街
2022-06-16
打垮华尔街
新东方直播间人有点多，基本十万+。人气很猛
非洲韭菜盒子
2022-06-16
非洲韭菜盒子
李佳琦为什么缺席，懂得都懂

发表看法

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"isChannel":false,"data":{"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2243917547?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d8785eee2d779f9815ee6f2463b063","is_english":false,"pubTime":"2022-06-16 11:41","share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","id":"2243917547","market":"sh","top_or_hot":-1,"title":"5日涨超4倍！直播带货的新东方在线天花板在哪里？","media":"中信建投证券研究","content":"<div>\n<p>随着新东方旗下直播间“东方甄选”爆红，港股新东方在线近日持续猛拉，短短5个交易日内涨超4倍，成为港股市场最牛的“吸金兽”。6月9日，东方甄选抖音直播间凭借双语直播快速破圈，引发全民关注，“东方甄选”抖音直播间日新增粉丝于6月14日出现向上拐点，6月14日日增粉丝达到183万（前四天日均不到80万）。东方甄选之所以如此火爆，主要有两个原因：1、东方甄选直播间中英双语+穿插历史文化等知识讲解的独特直播...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-06-15/doc-imizmscu7007101.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n","source":"sina_symbol","html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>5日涨超4倍！直播带货的新东方在线天花板在哪里？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n5日涨超4倍！直播带货的新东方在线天花板在哪里？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-06-16 11:41 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-06-15/doc-imizmscu7007101.shtml><strong>中信建投证券研究</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>随着新东方旗下直播间“东方甄选”爆红，港股新东方在线近日持续猛拉，短短5个交易日内涨超4倍，成为港股市场最牛的“吸金兽”。6月9日，东方甄选抖音直播间凭借双语直播快速破圈，引发全民关注，“东方甄选”抖音直播间日新增粉丝于6月14日出现向上拐点，6月14日日增粉丝达到183万（前四天日均不到80万）。东方甄选之所以如此火爆，主要有两个原因：1、东方甄选直播间中英双语+穿插历史文化等知识讲解的独特直播...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-06-15/doc-imizmscu7007101.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","isBrief":false,"type":0,"news_type":1,"symbol":"BK1596","symbol_name":"K12教育","start_time":0,"source_url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-06-15/doc-imizmscu7007101.shtml","article_id":"2243917547","we_media_id":null,"thumbnails":["https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d8785eee2d779f9815ee6f2463b063"],"rights":{"source":"sina_symbol","url":"https://cj.sina.cn/article/normal_detail?url=https://finance.sina.com.cn/chanjing/gsnews/2022-06-15/doc-imizmscu7007101.shtml","rn_cache_url":null,"customStyle":"body{padding-top:10px;}.title{#titleStyle#}a{#lv2TextColor#}.extra-info, .source{#sourceStyle#;}","selectors":".module-article, article","filters":"header, .voice2, .tags, #norm_qrcode_link_auto, .unfold-box, .action","directOrigin":true},"url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2243917547","pubTimestamp":1655350873,"sourceInfo":{"source_id":"sina_symbol","name":"新浪媒体新闻"},"weMediaInfo":null,"summary":"6月14日，东方甄选抖音直播间粉丝数量567万人，日增粉丝达到183万人、出现加速向上的拐点。不同于一开始对于东方甄选直播间中英双语直播的“有趣”定位，目前粉丝对于东方甄选直播间更多的是认可其文化底蕴和思想深度。除此之外，热度的发酵与618促销活动密切相关，目前抖音、快手等其他平台主播粉丝量和销售额均有一定程度上涨。怎么看待东方甄选增长的天花板？后续在5月1日和5月31日粉丝数量分别达到6000万和7000万人。","collect":0,"end_time":0,"defaultTopTitle":"sina.cn","property":[],"viewcount":null,"language":"zh","relate_stocks":{"BK1596":"K12教育","BK1588":"回港中概股","BK1556":"内地教育股","BK1516":"腾讯概念","09901":"新东方-S","BK1519":"在线教育","01797":"东方甄选","BK1228":"教育服务"},"translate_title":"On the 5th, it rose more than 4 times! Where is the ceiling of New Oriental Online with live delivery?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/58ddd100b1a986181760c87c4eaad6a3","symbols_score_info":{"01797":1,"09901":1},"content_text":"随着新东方旗下直播间“东方甄选”爆红，港股新东方在线近日持续猛拉，短短5个交易日内涨超4倍，成为港股市场最牛的“吸金兽”。6月9日，东方甄选抖音直播间凭借双语直播快速破圈，引发全民关注，“东方甄选”抖音直播间日新增粉丝于6月14日出现向上拐点，6月14日日增粉丝达到183万（前四天日均不到80万）。东方甄选之所以如此火爆，主要有两个原因：1、东方甄选直播间中英双语+穿插历史文化等知识讲解的独特直播带货方式，在众多直播间中脱颖而出；2、目前正处于618电商大促阶段，李佳琦、罗永浩等多位头部主播缺位。怎么看待东方甄选增长的天花板？中信建投认为：日均GMV决定短期空间，长期空间由粉丝数量的增加决定。①粉丝数量：东方甄选抖音直播间与22年4月份刘畊宏抖音直播间粉丝均为现象级增长。参照刘畊宏抖音直播间爆火路径，20天时间粉丝数量从300万增至5000万、2个月粉丝数量增至7000万。其中刘畊宏夫妇22年2月开始首场网络直播燃脂健身操（当时粉丝数量140.9万人），在4月6日由于抖音乌龙视频出圈，历时20天（4月6日-4月26日）粉丝数量从343万快速增至5000万人，其中在4月15日-4月21日日增粉丝加速上行、日均增加300+。后续在5月1日和5月31日粉丝数量分别达到6000万和7000万人。我们预计后续东方甄选抖音直播间粉丝数量不到一周增至1000万人、未来有望达到2000万人。②日均GMV：以抖音平台头部主播实时带货、直播第一名直播间为例，目前场均GMV在3500万+、场均销量达到30w+，相较于淘宝的超级头部直播间还有一定差距。其中李佳琦淘宝直播间19、20年GMV分别为50、200亿元，21年10月20日双十一预售首日李佳琦直播间GMV达106.53亿元。假设按照日均GMV 3000万元（在抖音直播间排名第二）和4000万（在抖音直播间排名第一）分别进行估算，东方甄选年GMV将达到110、146亿元，在此参考交个朋友直播间，净利润/GMV为3%，伴随自营产品比例加大和客单价提升，利润率有望提升至5%，给予20倍PE，分别对应110、146亿市值。另外，公司大学业务收入5亿元，按照10%净利率，20倍PE计算，对应10亿市值。中信建投认为，乐观情况下考虑公司在手净现金及等价物16亿元，假设未来在日均GMV达3000万元（在抖音直播间排名第二）和4000万（在抖音直播间排名第一），两种假设下，新东方在线合并计算市值分别为136亿元、172亿元。目前新东方在线市值已超过250亿港元。而有网友大胆估计，东方甄选全年能达到200亿的GMV，按照利润10%、20倍PE算，市值将达400亿。风险提示：双语直播潜在政策风险、产品质量风险、粉丝数量增长不达预期的风险","kind":null,"is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":689311041,"gmtCreate":1655371161488,"gmtModify":1704862120638,"author":{"id":"3501113550178595","authorId":"3501113550178595","name":"Justin_L","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d4fc9cc59f9e5eff9a291919842f8f5","vip":1,"hat":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b073a07f77dbe6b3bec6b12311fde6bd","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1},"htmlText":"涨这么多我合股之前的成本还没回来。","listText":"涨这么多我合股之前的成本还没回来。","text":"涨这么多我合股之前的成本还没回来。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689311041","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689947345,"gmtCreate":1655357083888,"gmtModify":1704862045284,"author":{"id":"3464587978783849","authorId":"3464587978783849","name":"恒跌","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1979ed439107058a8ba67c3a90477ff6","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"不玩中国股就不会被割","listText":"不玩中国股就不会被割","text":"不玩中国股就不会被割","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689947345","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689946994,"gmtCreate":1655354577320,"gmtModify":1704862038141,"author":{"id":"4117188042035870","authorId":"4117188042035870","name":"七宝七好","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/882b7e9d0ac8146cfa0c8e391250e65f","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"东方甄选迎来了复利拐点，之后还会突破的。虽然可能达不到最大想象，但也不会差太多。","listText":"东方甄选迎来了复利拐点，之后还会突破的。虽然可能达不到最大想象，但也不会差太多。","text":"东方甄选迎来了复利拐点，之后还会突破的。虽然可能达不到最大想象，但也不会差太多。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689946994","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689948768,"gmtCreate":1655354248455,"gmtModify":1704862037794,"author":{"id":"3558529685925795","authorId":"3558529685925795","name":"打垮华尔街","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ac994ad69614ee393c7c08aca3a38","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"新东方直播间人有点多，基本十万+。人气很猛","listText":"新东方直播间人有点多，基本十万+。人气很猛","text":"新东方直播间人有点多，基本十万+。人气很猛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689948768","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":4,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":689941472,"gmtCreate":1655353939601,"gmtModify":1704862035887,"author":{"id":"3566900685391720","authorId":"3566900685391720","name":"非洲韭菜盒子","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0},"htmlText":"李佳琦为什么缺席，懂得都懂","listText":"李佳琦为什么缺席，懂得都懂","text":"李佳琦为什么缺席，懂得都懂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/689941472","repostId":2243917547,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":15,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":9,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.26.2","shortVersion":"4.26.2","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2243917547"}