暴雷、闪崩频发，美股“以死相逼”，美联储救不救？

华尔街见闻2022-05-26

想要美联储出手，美股还要继续“闯关”。在美联储发誓要按住创四十年最高的通胀“高烧”之后，美股市场已经难以向往常一样博得联储青睐，地位只能步步后撤。直接导致的结果是，标普500指数在熊市门口进进出出，纳指更是在一月之前就已经深入技术性熊市之中。一季报公布之后，沃尔玛、塔吉特、Snap等公司业绩纷纷暴雷闪崩，更是让投资者的恐慌情绪进一步加深，他们大举离场只求落袋为安，同时也让美股的“跌跌不休”成了...

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howieyang123
2022-05-26
howieyang123
标普才跌不到20%，早着呢。

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Can the Fed save them?","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96ce679e04c373952b448e30423e0f15","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":1,".DJI":1,"SPY":1,"OEF":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"NQmain":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DDM":0.6,".SPX":0.6},"content_text":"想要美联储出手，美股还要继续“闯关”。在美联储发誓要按住创四十年最高的通胀“高烧”之后，美股市场已经难以向往常一样博得联储青睐，地位只能步步后撤。直接导致的结果是，标普500指数在熊市门口进进出出，纳指更是在一月之前就已经深入技术性熊市之中。一季报公布之后，沃尔玛、塔吉特、Snap等公司业绩纷纷暴雷闪崩，更是让投资者的恐慌情绪进一步加深，他们大举离场只求落袋为安，同时也让美股的“跌跌不休”成了恶性循环。所以美联储还能继续坐视不理吗？他们是否意识到，在通过激进紧缩压制通胀的同时，经济衰退的风险也在持续逼近，美股正在“以死相逼”？从目前的情况来看，美联储的态度已经有所缓和。周三公布的美联储货币政策会议纪要不仅表示，“鉴于正在变化的经济前景及前景的风险，限制性的（restrictive）政策立场可能变得适合”。另外，纪要显示，美联储甚至通过更新（PCE）通胀预期暗示了加息的结束时间。彭博的策略师Vincent Cignarella指出，如果PCE预期准确，这就暗示着，只要再来三次50个基点的加息行动，美联储就会结束当前的货币紧缩周期，为今年下半年一大风险反扑铺平道路。那具体来看，美联储究竟何时才会出手相救美股？这里有几个前提条件。首先，美股要触及美联储的看跌期权的执行价格（即逼迫美联储救市时标普500指数的点位）。但目前这个点位仍是不确定的。根据美国银行的基金经理调查显示，华尔街认为美联储看跌期权的执行价格在年初已经从3700点降至3529点。而按照摩根士丹利长期看空美股的首席股票策略师Michael Wilson的说法，这个执行价格在3400点左右。其次，美股要达到美联储的“心理位置”。虽然标普500指数较今年高点已经下跌17%，投资者对此深感不满。但是美国银行经济学家Ethan Harris表示，在美股并未出现大崩盘的情况下，更吸引美联储重视的，是眼下标普500指数仍比金融危机前的峰值高出15%。Harris还指出，在典型的消费模型中，普通家庭能够应对物价在三年时间里持续变化，美联储因此相信财富效应仍具备积极影响，能够抵抗住更多的货币紧缩。Harris在结论中提及，对美联储而言，当股市调整释放出这两种信息时，他们会有所行动：股市行情表明认为已经对收益和贴现率持悲观态度，并且通过财富效应对企业信息和消费者支出造成冲击。但Harris表示，从上述标准来看“美股的调整并不突出”，因为“股市仍远高于金融危机前的峰值，标普500指数的跌幅甚至还不到20%”。因此Harris认为想要达到鲍威尔心目中的看跌期权还有很长的路要走，目前的市场调整能够反映出疲软经济，但是尚未体现出经济衰退。第三，是债券市场发出“积极信号”。债券研究机构CreditSights认为，当美国债券市场发出非常“积极”的信号，那就意味着股市崩盘要结束了。根据Credit Sights的数据，企业债券利差（衡量企业债券相对于美国国债利率溢价的衡量标准）在过去一年几乎翻了一番，这表明市场对美国公司的担忧加剧。但是现在这种利差开始收窄，表明股市已经接近底部。Credit Sights对此指出，他们研究了标普500指数在1998年创下最大单周跌幅后的七个时期，发现企业债券利差平均在标普500指数反弹前的42天达到峰值。CreditSights全球战略主管Winnie Cisar在周一报告中写道：如果历史模式保持不变，投资级和高收益债券的利差可能会继续扩大。但他还补充道，短期内利差扩大应该会减速，同时股票的变化速度会加快，这就会导致标普500指数接近底部。而按照Harris的说法，鲍威尔总是对债券市场的动荡迅速作出反应，而眼下它已经开始了。据彭博社报道，本周一美国投资级债券的利差为147个基点，接近许多策略师所认为的150个基点水平，而这意味着企业债券市场开始承压。相比之下，垃圾债券市场的情况要糟糕得多。随着投资者对高风险债券失去兴趣，垃圾债券供应量仅为去年的24%。最后，如果考虑到“战神”Bill Ackman对于抗击通胀的观点，那么美股崩盘之际，或许才是美联储出手之时。周二，亿万富翁对冲基金经理、潘兴广场资本创始人比尔·阿克曼Bill Ackman拉响预警，表示只有当美联储采取更积极的行动或市场抛售变成全面崩盘之际，当前迅猛的通胀才会消退。而对于现在的美联储来说，还有什么比控制通胀高烧更重要呢？","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":614631633,"gmtCreate":1653539519124,"gmtModify":1704857466594,"author":{"id":"3561177669869635","authorId":"3561177669869635","name":"howieyang123","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35bedfe5f1c40f2d55c98a591ca2ec08","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3561177669869635","idStr":"3561177669869635"},"htmlText":"标普才跌不到20%，早着呢。","listText":"标普才跌不到20%，早着呢。","text":"标普才跌不到20%，早着呢。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/614631633","repostId":2238520353,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":18,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":7,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; compatible; ClaudeBot/1.0; +claudebot@anthropic.com)","isDev":false,"isTTM":false,"deviceId":"web-server-community-laohu8-v3","version":"4.29.4","shortVersion":"4.29.4","platform":"web","vendor":"web","appName":"laohu8","isIOS":false,"isAndroid":false,"isTiger":false,"isTHS":false,"isWeiXin":false,"isWeiXinMini":false,"isWeiBo":false,"isQQ":false,"isBaiduSwan":false,"isBaiduBox":false,"isDingTalk":false,"isToutiao":false,"isOnePlus":false,"isHuaWei":false,"isXiaomi":false,"isXiaomiWebView":false,"isOppo":false,"isVivo":false,"isSamsung":false,"isMobile":false},"href":"/m/news/2238520353"}