华尔街大佬的惊人预测：标普500将回撤45%，纳斯达克较高点暴跌75%，就在今年夏天

华尔街见闻2022-05-19

美股市场昨夜上演的“大屠杀”，与未来数月即将掀起的腥风血雨来说，只不过是“开胃小菜”。周三，资管巨头古根海姆首席投资官Scott Minerd在接受Market Watch采访时表示：预计投资者可能会经历“一个可怕的夏季和秋季”，进入下半年，纳斯达克综合指数将崩盘，较去年11月19日的峰值暴跌75%（目前下跌约28%），而标普500指数则较2022年1月3日的峰值暴跌45%（目前下跌18%）...

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Grantham持有相似观点，他认为：\n\n美股这次暴跌表面上与2000年的互联网泡沫破裂相似，预计标普500指数将持续下跌，或较峰值下跌40%，跌至自2020年3月熊市以来未见过的水平。\n\n同时，Grantham指出，本次下跌与2000年也存在一些差异。2000年泡沫只是在股市中，债市表现很好，收益率惊人，住房价格低廉，大宗商品表现良好，与今天相比，2000年简直是“天堂”。而现在俄乌冲突爆发，能源、粮食价格高企，房地产市场一团糟，债市创多年来最差表现。\n他认为这次衰退有可能演变成1970年代那样，经济增长放缓，通胀持续高企。\n“美联储看跌期权”不再\n导致华尔街大佬们持悲观情绪的主要是美联储的紧缩政策，Minerd指出，美联储已经明确表示，它的目标是继续加息，尽管这可能会导致美股和其他市场的动荡。\nMinerd说：\n\n我们都清楚地认识到一个事实，那就是没有“美联储看跌期权”。（所谓的美联储看跌期权指的是，在股市大跌时美联储会迅速出手拯救股市）\n\n美联储主席鲍威尔似乎也在试图说服投资者别抱有“美联储出手救市”的希望，周二在接受《华尔街日报》采访时，他表示将继续加息，不降通胀不罢休，并警告称，这个过程可能会带来一些痛苦。Mined表示，他相信美联储将继续加息，“直到他们看到通胀趋势明显打破”，并表示美联储可能将利率提高至中性水平之上。\n本月早些时候，美联储将联邦基金利率上调至0.75%-1%之间的目标区间，并表示在未来两次会议上预计再分别加息50个基点，据美国劳工部数据，美国4月通胀率为8.3%，远高于美联储2%的目标利率。\n压制通胀可能需要将利率提高到8%\n近期胡佛研究所主办了一次会议，在会议中，包括前白宫首席经济学家Jason Furman在内的多位与会者预计，美联储需要将利率调至3.5%-8%才能达到中性水平。\n此前，前联博首席经济学家Joseph Carson发表相似观点——“政策制定者每次都需要将利率提高到通胀峰值以上，来压制通胀周期”。这意味着美联储将一直加息直到经济或市场出现变化。\nMinerd表示：\n\n美联储似乎对“熊市的持续没有什么担忧”。如果真是如此的话，我们可能会遭遇相当严重的抛售。经济下滑可能会让美联储稍作停顿，但在造成严重损害之前，加息不可能放缓。\n\n“只要抛售保持相对有序，美股不会突然崩盘，美联储将把利率提高到高于通胀率的水平。”Minerd补充道。\n一些华尔街专业人士，包括富国银行首席执行官Charlie Scharf表示，在激进加息背景下，很难避免经济衰退，Mined对此表示同意。他指出：\n\n我们将迎来一个“痛苦的夏天”，到10月份，市场可能就会触底。\n\n当前美联储正朝着过度紧缩的方向发展，就业显示出疲软态势。鉴于美联储和经济降温之间的“冲突过程”，长期利率可能接近峰值。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":false,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":615203179,"gmtCreate":1652956556191,"gmtModify":1652956556191,"author":{"id":"3549584843818649","authorId":"3549584843818649","name":"期指阻击手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c67cf38f13713eae4c0d39c673c5478","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549584843818649","authorIdStr":"3549584843818649"},"htmlText":"I嘴炮无敌","listText":"I嘴炮无敌","text":"I嘴炮无敌","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615203179","repostId":2236727805,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":615203349,"gmtCreate":1652956533281,"gmtModify":1652956533281,"author":{"id":"3549584843818649","authorId":"3549584843818649","name":"期指阻击手","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6c67cf38f13713eae4c0d39c673c5478","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3549584843818649","authorIdStr":"3549584843818649"},"htmlText":"嘴炮","listText":"嘴炮","text":"嘴炮","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/615203349","repostId":2236727805,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 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