屏息以待！全市场都在盯着今晚的美国通胀数据

华尔街见闻2022-05-11

今晚8点半公布的美国4月通胀数据将成为万众瞩目的焦点。目前市场的一致预期是，4月美国CPI环比增长0.2%，同比增长8.1%，与3月相比下降0.4个百分点；核心CPI环比增长0.4%，同比增长6%，与3月相比下降0.5个百分点。美联储开启二十年来最激进的加息之后，美股市场一泻千里。如果今晚的CPI数据高于普遍预期，美联储对抗通胀压力加剧。在大幅度加息预期下，美股市场或将再度遭受重压。反之，美联储很...

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Shirley磊
2022-05-11
Shirley磊
等
big_papi
2022-05-11
big_papi
来个9%
看我大呲花
2022-05-11
看我大呲花
美联储加不加息那些资本巨头会不知道？本来就是一家子

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The whole market is staring at tonight's US inflation data","themeId":"","isJumpTheme":false,"ttsUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d42427d6667079c616724cdc28babf96","symbols_score_info":{"161125":0.6,"513500":0.6,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GS":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"SPY":0.9,"BAC":0.63,"NQmain":0.6,"UPRO":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"PSQ":0.6,"QID":0.6,"QLD":0.6,"QQQ":0.6,"SDOW":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SQQQ":0.6,"SSO":0.6,"TQQQ":0.6,"UDOW":0.6,".SPX":0.6,"MNQmain":0.6,"DDM":0.6,"DJX":0.6,"DOG":0.6,"DXD":0.6,"ESmain":0.6},"content_text":"今晚8点半公布的美国4月通胀数据将成为万众瞩目的焦点。目前市场的一致预期是，4月美国CPI环比增长0.2%，同比增长8.1%，与3月相比下降0.4个百分点；核心CPI环比增长0.4%，同比增长6%，与3月相比下降0.5个百分点。美联储开启二十年来最激进的加息之后，美股市场一泻千里。如果今晚的CPI数据高于普遍预期，美联储对抗通胀压力加剧。在大幅度加息预期下，美股市场或将再度遭受重压。反之，美联储很可能维持正常加息进程，美股市场或迎来反转。在已经做出预测的华尔街投行中，摩根大通最为悲观、美银和高盛相对乐观。但总体而言，华尔街大行普遍预计，美国通胀即将见顶，但通胀水平依然高企。小摩：核心通胀仍在高位徘徊摩根大通经济学家Michael Feroli 预测4月美国CPI环比增长0.4%，同比增长8.3%，高于华尔街的普遍预测的8.1%，但仍低于3月的8.5%。他认为通货膨胀上行的迹象依然存在。虽然3月份飙升的能源价格在4月份似乎有所回落（预计4月份能源CPI环比下降0.2%），但这一部分可能会被食品和其他商品和服务价格的强劲上涨抵消。根据Feroli的预测，4月食品价格将环比上涨0.8%，核心通胀指标将环比上涨0.39%。Feroli预测，4月美国核心CPI同比增速从3月的6.5%下降至5.9%，低于市场普遍预测。但他同时警告，核心CPI仍将在高位徘徊。Feroli认为4月份通胀走势于租金类似。小摩预计4月租户租金环比上涨0.47%，业主等价租金环比上涨0.43%。即使如此，作为通胀的主要推手之一的租金已经见顶。公寓租赁网站ApartmentList的数据显示，4月租金要价同比增速出现下滑。值得一提的是，美国劳工统计局（BLS）公布的业主等价租金比通胀滞后了5-6个月，因此，在未来的4-5个月，租金仍可能将继续上涨。新车价格涨势趋缓，二手车价格开始走低。摩根大通预计，4月份新车价格将小幅上涨0.1%，二手车价格将下跌2.0%。值得注意的是，BLS正在改变新车价格计算方式，从4月起，将直接根据、数据及分析服务提供商的交易数据估算新车价格。美银：4月CPI同比显著下降至7.9%与摩根大通相比，美国银行更为乐观。它预测4月美国核心CPI环比增长0.3%，增幅几乎与3月持平，但低于普遍预期的0.4%；鉴于基数效应较小，4月美国核心CPI同比增速从3月的6.5%下降至5.9%，这点与小摩相同。根据美银的预测，4月CPI环比增长0.07%；同比增长7.9%，这意味着通胀确实在3月到达峰值。美银预计，4月通胀的主要推手与3月类似：汽车价格拖累整体通胀，基础通胀更强。从批发数据来看，二手车价格应该会再次出现大幅收缩，而新车价格可能会加速。JDPower的预测和汽车交易平台Truecar的平均交易价格数据都显示，二手车在连续三个月降价后，4月份出现了强劲反弹。与此同时，美银预计，在供应链紧张和大宗商品价格上涨的背景下，各类商品价格将普遍上涨。与摩根大通一样，美银预计在租赁市场趋紧的情况下，业主等价租金和主要住宅租金将继续走强，4月份住宿价格将环比上涨0.45%，但与前两个月的强劲涨势相比更加温和。高盛：核心通胀将在二季度加速，之后回落高盛将目光转向美联储首选的消费者通货膨胀指标核心PCE物价指数。高盛认为，过去两个月的核心PCE物价指数年率（3.5%）较前四个月的6%大幅下降。预计第二季度，该指数在将重新加速至平均4.25%，第三季度和第四季度将分别回落至3.5%和3.25%。对此，高盛有三大理由：首先，受供应限制的耐用品的通胀率将大幅降至0%左右，这也是高盛预测2022年通胀放缓的主要原因。其次，住房通胀已经见顶，但同比增速仍在5%以上。第三，其他服务业的通胀将稳定在略高于4%的水平，因为劳动力市场过热可能会在一段时间内保持工资压力不变。值得一提的是，高盛在1月和2月曾预测，工资-通胀没有螺旋上升的风险。","kind":"highlight","is_publish_news":true,"is_publish_highlight":true,"is_publish_live":false,"is_publish_wemedia":null,"editions":null,"column":"","sentiment":"0","news_tag":"","news_rank":0,"symbols":[],"gpt_button":1},"commentList":[{"id":612882369,"gmtCreate":1652267416352,"gmtModify":1652267416352,"author":{"id":"3491036623178824","authorId":"3491036623178824","name":"Shirley磊","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c0662b86a2cd2859f3d83297e0c8ff7f","vip":1,"crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3491036623178824","idStr":"3491036623178824"},"htmlText":"等","listText":"等","text":"等","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612882369","repostId":2234606781,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":612882920,"gmtCreate":1652267401360,"gmtModify":1652267590650,"author":{"id":"3479883920547100","authorId":"3479883920547100","name":"big_papi","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dfa766e7f717d5c64a491f0336e20702","vip":1,"crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3479883920547100","idStr":"3479883920547100"},"htmlText":"&nbsp;来个9%","listText":"&nbsp;来个9%","text":"来个9%","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612882920","repostId":2234606781,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"},{"id":612886773,"gmtCreate":1652267325192,"gmtModify":1652267593354,"author":{"id":"3547083818992609","authorId":"3547083818992609","name":"看我大呲花","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0fbe3ddeb4a4ee2df4a9a77218c9ad5c","vip":1,"crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3547083818992609","idStr":"3547083818992609"},"htmlText":"美联储加不加息那些资本巨头会不知道？本来就是一家子","listText":"美联储加不加息那些资本巨头会不知道？本来就是一家子","text":"美联储加不加息那些资本巨头会不知道？本来就是一家子","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/612886773","repostId":2234606781,"repostType":2,"isVote":1,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false,"reportStatus":false,"tweetType":1,"langContent":"CN"}],"isCommentEnd":false,"newsSizeData":{"likeSize":13,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"favoriteSize":5,"likeStatus":false,"favoriteStatus":false},"APP":{"userAgent":"Mozilla/5.0 AppleWebKit/537.36 (KHTML, like Gecko; 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